What if the NFL used the BCS? Week 8 2006 Results
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by user False Prophet
| There shall be a regular season, and at the end of yea season, those records shall be ignored, and the experts and computers shall make a pronouncement from up on high, deciding which two gladiators shall do battle in the dead of winter for the title of champion. And to hell with the other teams. |
The BCS is, for many, the bane of the college football season. Nevermind the fact that your school was awarded its only loss on a terrible officiating call -- that one faux pas means a trip to the Chuck's Diner and Car Wash Bowl. 'Tis a silly thing, leaving the masses clammoring for an NFL-style playoff.
But that's boring. What if NFL fans started their own uproar, and asked for -- nay, demanded a BCS-style system for the 32 pro teams? What would happen?
Well, let's find out.
Methodology
The regular BCS formula can be found here. I adapted it significantly because (a) it's really hard to do what they do when you're working with only Excel and 10 fingers and 10 toes and (b) because there are few group polls out there, and the one that does exist just publishes the final ranking. (Maybe ArmchairGM needs an NFL power poll. That'd be good.)
Anyway, here's what I did.
Part 1: The Poll
I used ESPN's. They have multiple voters. They're ESPN. Fine. They're 50% of the ranking. They should be 33%, but I couldn't find another good human poll.
Part 2: The Computers
They're not all computers. They're objective measures -- make up a formula, stick in the data, out pops some rankings. Here are the six I used:
- CPU-1: Jeff Sagarin, because he's BCS computer. I used his "ELO CHESS"/"PURE POINTS" mesh, which he calls "RATING."
- CPU-2: Football Outsiders, because they actually know what they're talking about.
- CPU-3: Sonny Moore, because he's been doing this for years, and still uses AOL as his web host, which is weird.
- CPU-4: Mike Greenberg Mike Greenburg's rankings.
- CPU-5: Mr. Coffey, because he has been doing this for years, too.
- CPU-6: Davis21wylie, ArmchairGM user and statistical dynamo.
The "computers," so to speak, count for 50% of the end result total. So, each one counts for about 8.33% of the whole.
The Rankings
| Team | Poll 1 | C1 | C2 | C3 | C4 | C5 | C6 | CPU AVG | TOTAL |
| Bears | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1.17 | 1.08 |
| Colts | 2 | 3 | 9 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 3.67 | 2.83 |
| Patriots | 4 | 4 | 7 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 11 | 6.00 | 5.00 |
| Giants | 6 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 9 | 5.33 | 5.67 |
| Saints | 4 | 6 | 12 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 12 | 7.33 | 5.67 |
| Broncos | 3 | 5 | 15 | 3 | 31 | 4 | 16 | 9.33 | 6.17 |
| Chargers | 8 | 11 | 3 | 8 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 5.67 | 6.83 |
| Bengals | 7 | 12 | 16 | 10 | 10 | 9 | 13 | 11.67 | 9.33 |
| Falcons | 9 | 8 | 18 | 9 | 9 | 10 | 6 | 10.00 | 9.50 |
| Ravens | 13 | 8 | 5 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 6.83 | 9.92 |
| Eagles | 15 | 13 | 2 | 3 | 12 | 8 | 3 | 6.83 | 10.92 |
| Vikings | 12 | 9 | 14 | 11 | 11 | 12 | 8 | 10.83 | 11.42 |
| Panthers | 10 | 10 | 17 | 14 | 14 | 18 | 19 | 15.33 | 12.67 |
| Seahawks | 11 | 14 | 20 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 22 | 15.83 | 13.42 |
| Rams | 14 | 18 | 10 | 15 | 15 | 19 | 5 | 13.67 | 13.83 |
| Jaguars | 16 | 16 | 8 | 20 | 18 | 11 | 14 | 14.50 | 15.25 |
| Cowboys | 17 | 15 | 6 | 17 | 17 | 16 | 10 | 13.50 | 15.25 |
| Steelers | 18 | 17 | 6 | 21 | 19 | 15 | 15 | 15.50 | 16.75 |
| Chiefs | 19 | 20 | 13 | 19 | 16 | 20 | 18 | 17.67 | 18.33 |
| Jets | 20 | 21 | 24 | 18 | 17 | 23 | 24 | 21.17 | 20.58 |
| Bucs | 21 | 19 | 21 | 20 | 21 | 21 | 27 | 21.50 | 21.25 |
| Redskins | 24 | 22 | 19 | 24 | 23 | 21 | 21 | 21.67 | 22.83 |
| Packers | 23 | 24 | 22 | 22 | 22 | 28 | 25 | 23.83 | 23.42 |
| Bills | 26 | 23 | 23 | 23 | 25 | 27 | 28 | 24.83 | 25.42 |
| Texans | 22 | 27 | 32 | 26 | 29 | 31 | 31 | 29.33 | 25.67 |
| 49ers | 25 | 31 | 30 | 27 | 30 | 24 | 26 | 28.00 | 26.50 |
| Lions | 28 | 25 | 25 | 30 | 27 | 30 | 23 | 26.67 | 27.33 |
| Dolphins | 29 | 30 | 26 | 32 | 23 | 32 | 17 | 26.67 | 27.83 |
| Browns | 30 | 25 | 27 | 25 | 24 | 26 | 32 | 26.50 | 28.25 |
| Titans | 27 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 31 | 27 | 29 | 29.50 | 28.25 |
| Cardinals | 32 | 28 | 28 | 28 | 28 | 25 | 20 | 26.17 | 29.08 |
| Raiders | 31 | 32 | 31 | 29 | 32 | 29 | 30 | 30.50 | 30.75 |
Thanks to DNL for supplying me with the spreadsheat!!
