What if the NFL used the BCS? Week 15 2006 results
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by user False Prophet
This weekly column has become so big that even ESPN has caught on.
The BCS, for most college Football fans, is the one flaw in their great sport. Two small groups of people and a bunch of formulas determine who is the best team in the country, and who is on their way to some crappy bowl game that no one even knew existed until their team ended up in it.
What if the was an uproar in the NFL? Say the fans demanded they use the same formula as the BCS? What would happen? Let's find out.
Part 1: The Poll
I used ESPN's. They have multiple voters. They're ESPN. Fine. They're 50% of the ranking. They should be 33%, but I couldn't find another good human poll.
Part 2: The Computers
They're not all computers. They're objective measures -- make up a formula, stick in the data, out pops some rankings. Here are the six I used:
- CPU-1: Jeff Sagarin, because he's a BCS computer. I used his "ELO CHESS"/"PURE POINTS" mesh, which he calls "RATING."
- CPU-2: Football Outsiders, because they actually know what they're talking about.
- CPU-3: Mike Greenberg. He isn't a Mike & Mike Mike, though.
- CPU-4: Mr. Coffey, because he has been doing this for years, too.
- CPU-5: Sonny Moore, because he's been doing this for years, and still uses AOL as his web host, which is weird.
- CPU-6: Davis21wylie, ArmchairGM user and statistical dynamo.
The Rankings
Team Poll C 1 C 2 C3 C4 C5 c6 CPU AVG TOTAL Chargers 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1.00 1.00 Bears 2 2 2 3 2 2 3 2.33 2.17 Ravens 4 4 3 4 5 3 2 3.50 3.75 Colts 3 3 6 2 3 6 7 4.50 3.75 Patriots 5 5 4 5 4 4 4 4.33 4.67 Cowboys 7 7 7 7 7 9 6 7.17 7.08 Saints 6 11 10 12 8 8 8 9.50 7.75 Bengals 8 8 11 8 9 5 11 8.67 8.33 Jaguars 12 6 5 6 6 7 5 5.83 8.92 Eagles 9 15 8 14 12 12 10 11.83 10.42 Broncos 10 12 18 13 14 15 15 14.50 12.25 Jets 11 10 21 10 10 13 19 13.83 12.42 Steelers 14 16 12 16 15 11 9 13.17 13.58 Titans 13 13 16 9 16 14 25 15.50 14.25 Bills 16 9 17 11 11 10 20 13.00 14.50 Giants 17 14 9 15 13 17 12 13.33 15.17 Chiefs 19 17 13 17 18 16 16 16.17 17.58 Falcons 18 19 22 19 19 18 18 19.17 18.58 Seahawks 15 23 27 23 20 20 24 22.83 18.92 Dolphins 21 18 15 18 17 21 13 17.00 19.00 Vikings 24 20 20 24 23 22 14 20.50 22.25 Panthers 25 21 14 21 22 24 22 20.67 22.83 Packers 22 26 19 26 27 28 23 24.83 23.42 Redskins 26 22 23 20 21 19 21 21.00 23.50 Rams 23 27 26 28 26 23 17 24.50 23.75 49ers 20 28 29 27 28 27 27 27.67 23.83 Browns 28 25 24 25 25 26 30 25.83 26.92 Texans 29 24 25 22 24 29 29 25.50 27.25 Cardinals 27 30 28 30 30 25 26 28.17 27.58 Bucs 30 29 30 29 29 30 32 29.83 29.92 Raiders 31 31 31 31 31 31 31 31.00 31.00 Lions 32 32 32 32 32 32 28 31.33 31.67
Division Rankings
Average ranking of Each division rounded to the nearest one hundreth
AFC East 12.65 AFC South 13.54 AFC North 13.15 NFC East 14.04 AFC West 15.46 NFC South 19.77 NFC North 19.88 NFC West 23.52
Analysis
- We have our first 2 undisputed rankings, with the San Diego Chargers taking all first place slots, and the Oakland Raiders taking all 31st place slots.
- Again, the hater strikes again against the Titans, ranking them below 20 when no one else came close.
- The AFC East regains its title as toughest Division, with 2 likely playoff contenders in the tougher conference, and 2 teams that will finnish a bit outside of the playoff picture, while the NFC East is ranked 4th. Talk about suprising.
- The NFC West seems like a College Football Conference, with the average ranking at 23.
Thanks to DNL for supplying me with the spreadsheet!
