What if the NFL used the BCS? Week 13 2006 results
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by user False Prophet
This weekly column has become so big that even ESPN has caught on.
The BCS, for most college Football fans, is the one flaw in their great sport. Two small groups of people and a bunch of formulas determine who is the best team in the country, and who is on their way to some crappy bowl game that no one even knew existed until their team ended up in it.
What if the was an uproar in the NFL? Say the fans demanded they use the same formula as the BCS? What would happen? Let's find out.
Part 1: The Poll
I used ESPN's. They have multiple voters. They're ESPN. Fine. They're 50% of the ranking. They should be 33%, but I couldn't find another good human poll.
Part 2: The Computers
They're not all computers. They're objective measures -- make up a formula, stick in the data, out pops some rankings. Here are the six I used:
- CPU-1: Jeff Sagarin, because he's a BCS computer. I used his "ELO CHESS"/"PURE POINTS" mesh, which he calls "RATING."
- CPU-2: Football Outsiders, because they actually know what they're talking about.
- CPU-3: Mike Greenberg. He isn't a Mike & Mike Mike, though.
- CPU-4: Mr. Coffey, because he has been doing this for years, too.
- CPU-5: Sonny Moore, because he's been doing this for years, and still uses AOL as his web host, which is weird.
- CPU-6: Davis21wylie, ArmchairGM user and statistical dynamo.
The Rankings
Team Poll C 1 C 2 C3 C4 C5 c6 CPU AVG TOTAL Chargers 1 2 4 1 3 4 2 2.50 1.75 Bears 4 1 2 3 2 1 1 1.17 2.58 Colts 2 4 6 2 1 8 6 4.17 3.08 Cowboys 3 6 1 6 6 6 4 3.83 3.42 Patriots 5 3 5 4 4 5 5 3.67 4.33 Ravens 6 5 3 5 5 2 3 3.00 4.50 Bengals 8 7 9 7 8 3 9 6.00 7.00 Saints 7 10 11 11 9 9 8 7.83 7.42 Jaguars 10 8 7 9 7 7 7 6.00 8.00 Jets 11 9 16 8 10 10 20 10.83 10.92 Chiefs 12 13 12 14 14 13 12 10.67 11.33 Seahawks 9 19 21 16 15 12 21 14.67 11.83 Broncos 13 12 15 10 11 15 13 11.00 12.00 Giants 15 11 8 12 12 17 11 9.83 12.42 Eagles 17 15 10 17 13 11 10 9.83 13.42 Falcons 14 21 26 21 20 20 17 17.33 15.67 Titans 16 14 18 13 17 19 25 15.50 15.75 Panthers 18 17 13 19 19 18 18 14.17 16.08 Steelers 19 18 14 18 18 16 14 13.33 16.17 Dolphins 20 20 19 20 21 22 16 16.33 18.17 Bills 21 16 23 15 16 14 24 15.50 18.25 Vikings 24 22 17 24 22 23 15 16.50 20.25 Rams 23 26 27 28 26 29 19 21.17 22.08 49ers 22 27 30 26 27 26 29 23.17 22.58 Redskins 25 25 25 25 24 27 22 20.50 22.75 Browns 26 23 20 22 25 21 28 19.50 22.75 Texans 27 24 24 23 23 25 27 20.50 23.75 Packers 28 29 22 27 29 31 26 22.83 25.42 Cardinals 29 31 29 31 30 24 29 23.83 26.42 Bucs 30 28 31 29 28 32 32 25.17 27.58 Raiders 31 30 28 30 31 28 31 24.67 27.83 Lions 32 32 32 32 32 30 26 25.33 28.67
Division Rankings
Now I will rank each Division by finding the average of each team in the division's total score. Here's how it turned out (rounded to the nearest one hundreth).
AFC North 12.60 AFC South 12.65 AFC East 12.92 NFC East 13 AFC West 13.22 NFC South 16.68 NFC North 19.23 NFC West 20.73
Analysis
- Mr. Coffey ranked the Bengals 3rd this week, above the Ravens and Patriots, who both have a higher playoff seeding then the Bengals, and the Pats beat them earlier this year.
- The Chargers finally took over the top spot, and the Cowboys moved into the top 5, 2 highly expected moves.
- The Titans continue to rise the rankings, now ranked at 17th. Vince Young truely has made a difference in Tennesse
- The Jets, who drafted 2 lineman in the first round; and the Saints, who had the 2nd pick in the draft; have gone from one of the worst 5 teams last year, to Top 10 teams.
- Not only did Dallas enter the top 5, but they also recieved a first place in one of the formulas, something I did not see comming.
Thanks to DNL for supplying me with the spreadsheet and The Birthday Boy for continuing to hammer out his rankings despite being overloaded with work.
