What if the NFL used the BCS? Week 12 2006 results
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by user False Prophet
The BCS, for most college Football fans, is the one flaw in their great sport. Two small groups of people and a bunch of formulas determine who is the best team in the country, and who is on their way to some crappy bowl game that no one even knew existed until their team ended up in it.
What if the was an uproar in the NFL? Say the fans demanded they use the same formula as the BCS? What would happen? Let's find out.
Part 1: The Poll
I used ESPN's. They have multiple voters. They're ESPN. Fine. They're 50% of the ranking. They should be 33%, but I couldn't find another good human poll.
Part 2: The Computers
They're not all computers. They're objective measures -- make up a formula, stick in the data, out pops some rankings. Here are the six I used:
- CPU-1: Jeff Sagarin, because he's a BCS computer. I used his "ELO CHESS"/"PURE POINTS" mesh, which he calls "RATING."
- CPU-2: Football Outsiders, because they actually know what they're talking about.
- CPU-3: Mike Greenberg. He isn't a Mike & Mike Mike, though.
- CPU-4: Mr. Coffey, because he has been doing this for years, too.
- CPU-5: Sonny Moore, because he's been doing this for years, and still uses AOL as his web host, which is weird.
- CPU-6: Davis21wylie, ArmchairGM user and statistical dynamo.
The Rankings
Team Poll 1 C 1 C 2 C3 C4 C5 c6 CPU AVG TOTAL Colts 1 1 5 1 1 5 6 3.00 2.00 Chargers 2 3 3 2 4 4 2 2.67 2.33 Ravens 3 5 1 4 5 2 4 2.83 2.92 Bears 5 2 2 3 3 1 1 1.50 3.25 Patriots 4 4 6 5 2 3 5 3.33 3.67 Cowboys 6 6 4 7 6 6 3 4.17 5.08 Chiefs 7 10 11 9 11 10 11 8.83 7.92 Broncos 9 7 14 6 8 13 12 9.00 9.00 Jaguars 12 8 7 12 7 8 7 6.17 9.08 Bengals 11 9 10 8 9 7 10 7.50 9.25 Saints 10 13 12 13 12 9 8 9.00 9.50 Seahawks 8 18 25 18 17 14 20 15.67 11.83 Giants 15 12 8 11 10 17 13 10.00 12.50 Panthers 13 15 13 16 15 16 16 12.50 12.75 Jets 14 11 22 10 13 11 21 13.00 13.50 Dolphins 17 19 15 17 18 19 14 14.17 15.58 Eagles 23 17 9 19 14 12 9 10.17 16.58 Bills 20 14 24 14 16 15 24 15.50 17.75 Rams 18 22 19 23 25 25 15 17.67 17.83 Packers 16 28 20 28 28 30 23 21.50 18.75 Falcons 19 24 27 26 23 22 19 19.17 19.08 Steelers 24 16 16 20 19 18 18 14.50 19.25 Vikings 22 21 17 22 22 23 17 16.67 19.33 49ers 21 27 28 25 27 21 25 21.33 21.17 Redskins 25 23 21 21 21 24 22 18.50 21.75 Titans 29 20 18 15 20 20 27 17.50 23.25 Texans 26 26 23 27 24 29 28 21.67 23.83 Browns 28 25 26 24 26 26 30 22.17 25.08 Bucs 27 30 30 29 29 31 32 25.33 26.17 Raiders 30 29 29 30 30 27 31 24.33 27.17 Cardinals 31 31 31 32 32 28 29 25.17 28.08 Lions 32 32 32 31 31 32 26 25.50 28.75
Analysis
- It's amazing what one game will do. The Pats were ranked outside the top 5 and quickly dropping, but a win against the Bears puts them right back up there
- The AFC East has 3 teams in the top half, and we thought this was a bad division...
- The Lions have hit rock bottom. They were in the mid 20's when I took this over, and have been dropped to last. I truly thought this team was going to turn it around; but it appears I was wrong
- The Cowboys have crept up into the Top 5, but how far up they will go is still to be seen
- The Eagles sit just outside the top halg, despite their season being all but over since Donovan McNabb went down. What gives?
Thanks to DNL for supplying me with the spreadsheet and Davis21wylie for continuing to hammer out his rankings despite being overloaded with work.
