What if the NFL used the BCS? Week 10 2006 results
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by user False Prophet
The BCS, for most college Football fans, is the one flaw in their great sport. Two small groups of people and a bunch of formulas determine who is the best team in the country, and who is on their way to some crappy bowl game that no one even knew existed until their team ended up in it.
What if the was an uproar in the NFL? Say the fans demanded they use the same formula as the BCS? What would happen? Let's find out.
Part 1: The Poll
I used ESPN's. They have multiple voters. They're ESPN. Fine. They're 50% of the ranking. They should be 33%, but I couldn't find another good human poll.
Part 2: The Computers
They're not all computers. They're objective measures -- make up a formula, stick in the data, out pops some rankings. Here are the six I used:
- CPU-1: Jeff Sagarin, because he's a BCS computer. I used his "ELO CHESS"/"PURE POINTS" mesh, which he calls "RATING."
- CPU-2: Football Outsiders, because they actually know what they're talking about.
- CPU-3: Mike Greenberg. He isn't a Mike & Mike Mike, though.
- CPU-4: Mr. Coffey, because he has been doing this for years, too.
- CPU-5: Sonny Moore, because he's been doing this for years, and still uses AOL as his web host, which is weird.
- CPU-6: Davis21wylie, ArmchairGM user and statistical dynamo.
The "computers," so to speak, count for 50% of the end result total. So, each one counts for about 8% of the total rating
Team Poll 1 C1 C 2 C3 C4 C5 c6 CPU AVG TOTAL Bears 2 1 1 2 2 1 1 1.00 1.50 Colts 1 2 5 1 1 3 6 2.83 1.92 Chargers 3 3 4 4 3 2 2 2.33 2.67 Ravens 5 5 7 5 4 5 4 4.17 4.58 Broncos 4 4 10 3 5 10 9 6.33 5.17 Patriots 6 6 9 6 7 6 7 5.83 5.92 Giants 8 7 3 7 6 9 10 5.83 6.92 Cowboys 10 9 6 10 10 8 3 6.00 8.00 Eagles 11 11 2 12 11 4 5 5.50 8.25 Saints 9 8 13 9 9 11 11 8.67 8.83 Seahawks 7 13 21 13 14 12 21 13.50 10.25 Jaguars 16 10 8 11 8 7 8 6.83 11.42 Chiefs 13 12 11 14 15 16 14 11.33 12.17 Panthers 12 25 15 15 12 18 20 15.00 13.50 Falcons 15 17 22 19 16 17 12 14.00 14.50 Bengals 17 16 14 16 13 13 17 12.17 14.58 Jets 14 14 24 8 17 14 23 15.33 14.67 Steelers 19 19 12 23 18 15 15 13.17 16.08 Rams 18 22 16 21 23 21 13 15.83 16.92 Packers 20 24 18 22 24 25 19 18.33 19.17 Dolphins 21 25 18 25 26 24 16 18.17 19.58 Vikings 23 18 20 20 21 22 18 16.50 19.75 Browns 24 21 23 17 19 20 26 18.17 21.08 Redskins 25 23 19 24 20 26 24 18.67 21.83 49ers 22 29 31 27 27 23 28 23.00 22.50 Bills 27 20 26 18 25 19 25 19.17 23.08 Texans 26 26 25 26 22 27 27 21.17 23.58 Bucs 28 27 28 29 28 31 32 24.33 26.17 Titans 29 28 30 28 29 29 30 24.33 26.67 Lions 30 31 27 31 31 30 22 23.50 26.75 Raiders 31 30 29 30 30 28 31 24.67 27.83 Cardinals 32 32 32 32 32 32 29 26.17 29.08
Analysis
- The Cards were one formula away from being unanimous decision for being the Worst team in the league. Congratulations!!!
- The Jets were all over the place, anywhere from 8th to 22nd. What is going on with that?
- This weeks "Huh?" award goes to the fact that in several rankings, the Green Bay Packers were ranked below the Minnesota Vikings. The Packers BEAT the Vikings at Minnesota last week, and they have the same record.
- Footballoutsiders.com ranked the Colts at 5th this week. A very bold move, and I give them my kudos. Also, Davis21wylie ranked them at 6th!!!
- The Bears are ranked over the Colts, even though they are Undefeated. I think this proves why the BCS Doesn't Work.
Thanks to DNL for supplying me with the spreadsheet, and Davis21Wylie for doing his rankings despite being crunched for time.
