WhatIfSports.com Presents: The Ultimate NBA Playoff
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by user Davis21wylie
You're not really a basketball fan if you haven't asked yourself at least once, "Which NBA team is the greatest of all time?" Let's face it, we all fantasize about impossible matchups: Would the 1996 Bulls beat the 1972 Lakers? Whose Celtic dynasty was stronger, Bill Russell's or Larry Bird's? Until recently, though, these dream showdowns were just that -- the sole province of our imaginations, never to be decided with any certainty. However, with the advent of the internet, simulation technology has progressed to the point that we can at least reasonably construct these fantasy matchups, arriving with life-like results. On the cutting edge of this brave new world is WhatIfSports.com, a site founded in 1999 that specializes in online sports simulations between teams of different eras. Using their free-to-the-public technology, we can finally set up a fantasy playoff to determine which team is truly the greatest of all time.
So, in an ongoing series, that's exactly what I'll be doing: taking the 64 greatest teams in NBA history and placing them in a March Madness-style bracket to determine historical supremacy once and for all. But how to select the top 64? Just like the NCAA selection committee, I had to turn to a mathematical formula: something called Pythagorean Dominance. All pythagorean dominance does is ask, "How many standard deviations above average was a team?" Here's how it works... Using the pythagorean formula, we can arrive at a good measure of team strength through points scored and allowed. However, we also have to ascertain the conditions under which this strength was achieved; were teams competitively balanced, making dominance doubly impressive, or was the league split into the "haves" and "have-nots", providing many bottom-feeders for top teams to feast upon? Pythagorean dominance takes both of these concerns into account:
Pythagorean Dominance (PDOM) = (PW% - .500) / CB
Where PW% equals the team’s Pythagorean winning percentage and 0.500 equals the league-average winning percentage. CB equals the league’s Competitive Balance, which is the standard deviation of pythagorean winning percentage of all the clubs in the league that season.
Like the RPI, PDOM isn't perfect. It doesn't factor in the playoffs, nor does it capture the strength of the "ideal" version of each team -- the version in which all players are rested, healthy, etc. But it does paint a decent picture of team strength. Here are the Top 10 all-time NBA teams in PDOM:
Rank team year lg GP Pyth% PDOM 1 GSW 1976 N 82 0.706 2.670 2 NYK 1970 N 82 0.759 2.333 3 MIL 1971 N 82 0.822 2.188 4 BOS 1986 N 82 0.769 2.103 5 POR 1978 N 82 0.695 2.098 6 CHI 1996 N 82 0.850 2.081 7 BOS 1957 N 72 0.674 2.062 8 WA1 1975 N 82 0.730 2.034 9 MIL 1986 N 82 0.760 2.026 10 PHW 1956 N 72 0.645 2.012
Not a bad list, although we might take exception to the notion that the 1976 Golden State Warriors are the greatest team of all time (the NBA was very competitively balanced that season, making their 59 wins extremely impressive). But we also need to recognize the fact that some teams didn't complete their task by winning an NBA Championship -- which is, after all, the mark of any truly outstanding team. To that end, I gave each team a .5-point bonus for winning a ring, a change reflected in the rankings below:
Rank team year lg GP won lost Pyth% PDOM Bonus Rating 1 NYK 1970 N 82 60 22 0.759 2.333 0.500 2.833 2 MIL 1971 N 82 66 16 0.822 2.188 0.500 2.688 3 GSW 1976 N 82 59 23 0.706 2.670 2.670 4 BOS 1986 N 82 67 15 0.769 2.103 0.500 2.603 5 CHI 1996 N 82 72 10 0.850 2.081 0.500 2.581 6 BOS 1957 N 72 44 28 0.674 2.062 0.500 2.562 7 PHW 1956 N 72 45 27 0.645 2.012 0.500 2.512 8 CHI 1992 N 82 67 15 0.802 1.937 0.500 2.437 9 BOS 1984 N 82 62 20 0.699 1.936 0.500 2.436 10 SAS 2005 N 82 59 23 0.766 1.913 0.500 2.413
That's better -- nine of the Top 10 won NBA championships. Before we move on to the final Top 64, let's add one last rule into the mix: to be one of the four number one seeds, you must have won an NBA title. Now, let's examine the final cut for the Top 64 of all-time:
Rank team year lg GP won lost Rating 1 NYK 1970 N 82 60 22 2.833 2 MIL 1971 N 82 66 16 2.688 3 BOS 1986 N 82 67 15 2.603 4 CHI 1996 N 82 72 10 2.581 5 GSW 1976 N 82 59 23 2.670 6 BOS 1957 N 72 44 28 2.562 7 PHW 1956 N 72 45 27 2.512 8 CHI 1992 N 82 67 15 2.437 9 BOS 1984 N 82 62 20 2.436 10 SAS 2005 N 82 59 23 2.413 11 BOS 1965 N 80 62 18 2.330 12 LAL 1987 N 82 65 17 2.317 13 CHI 1997 N 82 69 13 2.310 14 SAS 1999 N 50 37 13 2.285 15 BOS 1962 N 80 60 20 2.256 16 LAL 2000 N 82 67 15 2.255 17 CHI 1991 N 82 61 21 2.228 18 POR 1977 N 82 49 33 2.206 19 LAL 1985 N 82 62 20 2.183 20 PHI 1967 N 81 68 13 2.161 21 LAL 1972 N 82 69 13 2.160 22 LAL 2002 N 82 58 24 2.142 23 BOS 1960 N 75 59 16 2.128 24 POR 1978 N 82 58 24 2.098 25 PHI 1983 N 82 65 17 2.075 26 DET 2004 N 82 54 28 2.059 27 BOS 1963 N 80 58 22 2.044 28 WAB 1975 N 82 60 22 2.034 29 MIL 1986 N 82 57 25 2.026 30 MIE 1950 N 68 51 17 2.018 31 MIL 1974 N 82 59 23 2.000 32 BOS 1961 N 79 57 22 1.948 33 BOS 1964 N 80 59 21 1.905 34 LAL 1980 N 82 60 22 1.891 35 CHI 1993 N 82 57 25 1.857 36 SAS 2004 N 82 57 25 1.851 37 CHI 1998 N 82 62 20 1.849 38 BOS 1981 N 82 62 20 1.840 39 BOS 1980 N 82 61 21 1.817 40 DET 1990 N 82 59 23 1.816 41 SAS 2006 N 82 63 19 1.815 42 BOS 1966 N 80 54 26 1.814 43 SAS 2003 N 82 60 22 1.814 44 BOS 1959 N 72 52 20 1.805 45 BOS 1969 N 82 48 34 1.779 46 MIE 1952 N 66 40 26 1.774 47 DET 2006 N 82 64 18 1.760 48 LAL 1986 N 82 62 20 1.735 49 PHI 1981 N 82 62 20 1.717 50 SAS 2001 N 82 58 24 1.713 51 LAL 1988 N 82 62 20 1.712 52 DAL 2003 N 82 60 22 1.703 53 MIE 1951 N 68 44 24 1.702 54 MIE 1953 N 70 48 22 1.699 55 NYK 1973 N 82 57 25 1.692 56 SAC 2002 N 82 61 21 1.691 57 LAL 1982 N 82 57 25 1.677 58 MIL 1985 N 82 59 23 1.674 59 PHI 1978 N 82 55 27 1.672 60 BOS 1975 N 82 60 22 1.630 61 DET 1989 N 82 63 19 1.625 62 MIL 1972 N 82 63 19 1.608 63 POR 1991 N 82 63 19 1.605 64 DAL 2006 N 82 60 22 1.596
Here are the teams whose bubbles burst -- the last 8 to miss the field:
Rank team year lg GP won lost Rating 65 BOS 1958 N 72 49 23 1.591 66 DEN 1977 N 82 50 32 1.589 67 MIL 1981 N 82 60 22 1.585 68 SEA 1994 N 82 63 19 1.584 69 PHI 1968 N 82 62 20 1.579 70 BOS 1985 N 82 63 19 1.576 71 PHO 2005 N 82 62 20 1.567 72 MIA 2005 N 82 59 23 1.562
Sadly, they'll be playing in the NIT over the next few weeks.
Now, let's break down the brackets:
This is the strongest of the four brackets, featuring the top overall seed, the 1970 Knicks, as well as the 69-win 1972 Lakers juggernaut.
This is the "weakest" bracket, but that's a relative term as the winningest single-season team ever, the 1996 Chicago Bulls, are the number one seed. Also in the mix are the 1992 Bulls, the strongest team of the Bulls' first 3-title dynasty, and the 2000 Lakers, the strongest of their 3-ring dynasty.
This is the seond-strongest bracket in the tournament, as almost every team won an NBA crown. The 1957 Celtics are probably the most formidable 2-seed in the field.
The Riley Bracket is the third-strongest in the tournament, and, oddly enough, is dominated by various iterations of the Boston Celtics. Don't sleep on the several Bucks teams in the bracket, though.
There you have it! Over the next month, I'll be using the WhatIfSports engine to simulate the brackets, and find out which team is truly the NBA's greatest. Check back for updates!
