Week 5: What are the Odds?
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So what did we learn last week? We learned that Golden Boy is significantly better than Fatty when it comes to these games (2 picks better to be exact). We also learned that neither one of us should be considered better than average, as we are just slightly over .500 for the season. This week, we turn it around. Why now? Baseball has slowed down, and the Golden Boy has almost had a full week to recover from the Mets’ collapse. Plus, the Giants and Pats are definitely in the hunt, and it is time to refocus on football. (Fatty will try to use the excuse that his beloved Red Sox are still playing, and that might distract him enough to affect his picks this week. Don’t buy it. He has been planning his selections since Tuesday.
Week 5 (home teams underlined)
Arizona 3 St. Louis Picture Coach Whiz this coming Sunday night…sitting back, legs up the desk, smoking a cigar with an ear to ear smile. Whiz has a big smile as he celebrates his team’s third consecutive victory. In strolls Matt Leinhart.
Matt: Coach we need to talk. Whiz: Whats up Matt? Matt: Coach, I’m not happy, I can’t believe you have me splitting time with ‘Crazy’ Kurt Warner. Whiz: But Matt, we have just beaten two of the top ten teams in the AFC and a division rival, aren’t you happy for us? Matt: No coach, I’m not happy. Look at me, I am really good looking, and I played at USC and you are letting that Jesus loving crazy man take my snaps. Coach, either you play me every down, and let this team swim or sink with me or… Whiz: HAHAHAHA Matt: What is so funny coach? Whiz- Matt, we are going with Jesus loving, grocery bagging old man, and we are gonna win football games. Oh and Matt, have fun on the Surreal Life 8.”
Arizona has learned how to win, even if it took Kurt Warner to teach them that lesson. PICK: Take the Cardinals, and stay away from the Rams and their fantasy studs until Orlando Pace gets healthy. Baltimore 3 San Francisco
“Things change Mox, you’re the starting quarterback now!” This week, 49er fans say goodbye to Alex Smith and hello to Trent Dilfer. What does this mean? Very little. San Fran will still hand the ball of the Frank Gore 45 times a game and throw only 10 times. Bill Walsh is rolling over in his grave. So in the immediate future, losing Smith isn’t going to change much for the 49ers, they will still be good enough to beat the average teams, but they won’t be able to handle the NFL’s elites. At the beginning of the season, many thought the Ravens would be one the elite teams that the 49ers would struggle with. After the first four weeks, the Ravens are very average and have the ability to lose to anyone, absolutely anyone, just ask the Arizona Cardinals and the Cleveland Browns. Their defense has lost a step without Adalius Thomas and offenses are taking advantage of an overrated secondary. PICK: Take the home team underdog, and the under. Denver 1.5 San Diego Sure, Norv Turner is a miserable coach. Yes, this Chargers’ team has been a huge disappointment. But let’s not exempt superstar, LT2, from this blame. Over the last 8 months, LT2 has come off as a sore loser who loves to put the blame on everyone else. It started after the AFC playoffs last year, and it has blossomed in the last three weeks. LT2 has told Phillip Rivers to “do his job” and get LT the ball. His recent post game press conferences give him the appearance of a 13 year old girl who just found out that her best friend and ex-boyfriend got together in the storage room after the dance last weekend. When is the supposed best player in the NFL going to grab hold of his team and take responsibility on this sinking ship? Could you imagine Emmitt Smith or Walter Payton ever acting this way? LT2 is missing that leadership trait that San Diego desperately needs right now. San Diego has shown zero fight and I don’t think it starts this week. PICK: I like Denver playing at Mile High coming off their loss bouncing back with a big game from their Defense.
Green Bay 3 Chicago So with this spread, Vegas is telling us that they believe the undefeated Pack and the 1-3 Bears are evenly matched teams. The question for us to answer is: Are the Bears better than we think? We think so. Yes, the defense has been banged up more than Britney. Yes, the QB play has been piss poor. However, this week the Bears are playing for their season, and the Pack has to lose eventually. Listen, we like Brett Favre as much as anyone. Well ok, maybe not as much as Madden or Berman. Lets not forget the Brett Favre makes a lot of mistakes. This guy is not only going to set the touchdown record but he is going to surpass the interceptions record as well. As good as things are going for the Pack right now, they are due for a minor trip up. Nothing is perfect in the NFL. PICK: Be bold, take the points and take the Bears.
Houston 5.5 Miami Last year at this time, Houston was the laughing stock of the NFL. They were coming off a draft where they had taken Mario Williams instead of Reggie Bush. Williams got off to an intimidating start, and Bush hit the ground running, strutting his stuff (we mean strutting in a very manly football way). A year later, Houston has rebounded and it is now the Miami Dolphins who are the laughing stock of the NFL. To start the season, they passed on a potential franchise quarterback and guaranteed ticket seller Brady Quinn for the fragile and unimpressive Ted Ginn Jr. To make matters worst, they are coming off a week where they were absolutely embarrassed by their former quarterback Dante Culpepper. Culpepper, who was cut after not getting a clean bill of health from Miami, RAN FOR 3 TOUCHDOWNS LAST WEEK. That’s right, after being released and escorted out of the facility, Culpepper used the same banged up knee that prevented him from playing in Miami to run for 3 touchdowns. Safe to say things do not look good for Miami, as they are still winless on the season. It likely won’t get any better this week. Laces out! PICK: Give the points and take Houston.
Indianapolis 10 Tampa Bay Tampa Bay has put together a nice little squad. It’s not sexy, but they may even 8 or 9 games in the NFC this season and make the playoffs. There a big difference between beating the NFC bottom feeders, and beating the Colts. Beating the Colts is something that that the Bucs cannot do, there isn’t even a chance. Generally, in the NFL every team has chance, but this year, at least not when the Colts or Patriots are involved. The Colts offense is just far too efficient to lose this game. A new rule, anytime the Colts (or Patriots) are giving 14 points or less to an average NFC team, you have to take them. PICK: Take the Colts and give the points. Consider a prop bet on Reggie Wayne too. New England 16.5 Cleveland How do you think Brady Quinn is taking the success of Derek Anderson and the Browns offense? Do you think it excites him? Do you think he is proud of his teammates and really wants them to succeed? Our gut feeling is that deep down Brady Quinn is furious right now. He seems like the kind of guy that wants to be the star so badly that he is trying everything to get into the game. Picture him sitting at home with the lights off, a voodoo doll of Derek Anderson in one hand, and the phone in his other hand as he calls all of his old Notre Dame buddies offering them a million dollars to break Anderson’s leg. Well, perhaps there aren’t any Notre Dame defensive players in the NFL right now (and there don’t look to be too many promising prospects either), but you get our point. Even with Cleveland’s newfound success, the problem is the Patriots are way too talented for the streaking Browns club. Derek Anderson will probably hook up with Braylon Edwards for two long balls, but the Patriots can just march down the field and pick and choose how they want to score. Brady to Moss, Brady to Welker, Brady to Watson, Maroney or Morris on the ground. It is sickening. . PICK: Give up the 16 points, the Pats are covering. Jacksonville 2 Kansas City Well, well, well, the Kansas City Chiefs have finally found themselves an offensive weapon. Last week, the San Diego Chargers did not have an answer for LSU grad Big Bad Bowe. There isn’t a single team that could use a talented wide receiver more than the Chiefs. So now, the Chiefs have arguably a top 5 tight end, top 5 running back and a blossoming wideout. What’s the problem you ask? Damon Huard. He just isn’t a good enough quarterback to get the ball to these offensive weapons. KC at home is always a different team than on the road, but that win against the lifeless Bolts is not enough for us to start buying stock in the Chiefs. If the Jags can’t win this week, you can official move Jack Del Rio to the top of the list of coaches likely to be replaced by Bill Cowher by the end of the season. Right now, Mr. Norv Turner has that placed locked down. PICK: Take the Jags, and expect the little bowling ball MoJo to finally show up for the 2007 season.
NY Giants 3.5 NY Jets Which Giant team will show up this week? The team that couldn’t defend a flag football team consisting of our friends, or the team that played shut down D the last six quarters and have left the Golden Boy with a week long chubby? Giants have a great defensive line that is only neutralized when it is opposed by an elite O-Line like Dallas (see week 1). This Giants D-Line, when applying non stop pressure, helps hide the below average linebackers and secondary. Luckily for the Giants, the Jets do not possess the type of O-Line to control this game. Jets will dink and dunk all day, but they don’t have the big play potential to hurt the Giants with big plays. If you listen closely and can drown out Golden Boy’s agonizing screams about the Mets, you can hear Fatty already popping his AFC East championship champagne. PICK: G-Men.
New Orleans 3 Carolina Everyone say it with us, “The Carolina Panthers are not good. We will not bet on them to win. We will not be fooled by their talent or their potential to win. The Carolina Panthers are not good.” We may need an intervention soon. Every year it is the same thing with them…you just sit and wait for this team to put it together and knock off 8 straight, but they never do. Write off the Panthers until further notice, especially with David “I would never let you drive my” Carr at the helm. Is there a more awkward looking QB in the league that David Carr, with his white glove and European hair cut? With Deuce McAllister out, expect Drew Brees and the offense to open it up and air it out. Bush needs to touch the ball 30 times, and hopefully he will. PICK: Give the Points, take the Saints. Tennessee 8.5 Atlanta As stated in this space in earlier weeks, we are big fans of the coaching acumen of Jeff Fisher. Now, you have given him a bye week to prepare for a home game against a Josephine “Y-darb” Harrington-led Atlanta team??! Look for VY and Lendale White to have a huge week. Plus, expect a Titans’ defensive touchdown as well. On another note, wouldn’t you like to see a pre-game “Who’s crazier” matchup between Pac Man Jones and De’Angelo Hall?!?! They would make Fear Factor look like child’s play. Then again, they may also kill the fans who are paying to watch, so that might be a bad idea after all. PICK: Pac Man defeats Hall, and his Titans should be equally victorious against the Falcons and the spread. Pittsburgh 5.5 Seattle Imagine this...You are living in Pittsburgh. You work long hours in a steel mill, and you live and die with the Pittsburgh Steelers. Your team is now going through its first season without the beloved Bill Cowher, the man who led your team to a Super Bowl and the man who isn’t afraid to get dirty just like the hard workers of Pittsburgh. During this first season, you have watched the Steel Curtain be embarrassed by the Arizona Cardinals. Yeah that’s right the white collared, soft as puppy poop, Arizona Cardinals, took it to the Steelers last week, and all the while, your new young coach is just standing there, saying nothing, just trying to look cool in his Gucci Sunglasses. On the other sideline, those same Cardinals are being coached by “The Whiz,” a hard nosed offensive coordinator that had helped lead your Steelers to the Super Bowl title. If this Steelers’ team starts to struggle, Mr. Mike Tomlin may want to watch his back, as the men from the mills are not always forgiving, especially when you appear to care more about looking cool than winning football games. Pittsburgh is not as good as people think, and this week, a good Seattle team shows just that. PICK: Take the points and the ‘Hawks.
Washington 3.5 Detroit Lions Lounge volume 4: Alright, it's time to break out of the 1-1-1 gridlock here in the Lounge. What we have this week folks is a classic clash of styles. The Lions, in case you haven't noticed, like to throw the ball; Christ the Kitna leads the league with 1,227 passing yards. On the other side, the ‘Skins love to run the ball with their two backs; Gibbs’ boys are 4th in the league in rushing yards per game. Interestingly, both teams have the defensive personnel to match up with those strengths. Shaun "Big Baby" Rogers teams with Corey Redding to stuff the middle for Detroit, while the Shawn Springs/Carlos Rogers/Sean Taylor/LaRon Landry foursome looks strong enough to match up with the Lions stable of wideouts, especially if Megatron is out for a 2nd straight week. Don't listen to the Merril Hodges of the world who have their producers whispering the "Lions haven't won at Washington in 17 tries" stat into their ears. What the hell does that matter? Do you think Roy Williams cares that a 1976 Detroit team couldn't beat Theismann's Redskins before RoyBoy was born? He cares much more about the all-you-can-eat shrimp plate at Red Lobster ( http://www.withleather.com/post.phtml?pk=3973). The Lions receivers are good enough to get theirs on this secondary, and their front 7 will slow down Portis and make Jason Campbell beat them. Unfortunately, that's not something he can do. PICK: If Calvin Johnson plays, and if you have faith in the Lounge, take the Lions to win outright for a nice payday at +170. If Megatron is out and you don't have the Aggrocrag-level GUTS, still take Detroit and the 3.5. Dallas 10 Buffalo Dallas continues to take advantage of a favorable schedule. Giants, Miami, Bears and Rams are not exactly juggernauts. Unfortunately, this week opponent won’t be any more competitive. Plus, they get to travel to Buffalo in early October. Buffalo is clearly a rebuilding team at this stage, and Dallas should have no problems with the Bills this week. Bill Parcells must be fuming at home right now. He leaves, and now this Dallas team has gotten it going. Parcells is already deciding which below average franchise he will take over next year and lead to a first round playoff loss. Lets face it, Parcells without BB is… well a loser. Parcells’ replacement, Wade Phillips, will probably only need one diaper this week, as Dallas wins easily. PICK: Give the Points, take the ‘Boys. VEGAS TIP OF THE WEEK: At the end of last week’s column, we mentioned having a little fun by adding a few additional points on a spread. In order to increase your payout, you can add points to a spread if you are taking the favorite, or take points away from the spread if you are betting on an underdog. For example, if you are taking the Pats this week and you want a bigger payout, you can add 4 or 5 points to the 16.5 spread to make the Pats 20.5-21.5 point favorites. Clearly, it will be harder for the Pats to cover the spread, but the payout is larger. As always with betting, you must increase the risk to increase the reward.
Well readers, happy betting. Remember, nothing makes a weekend more enjoyable than placing a betting on potential division and conference winners.
--Fatty and the Golden Boy at www.fleafanatics.com
