Week 4: What are the Odds?
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Here at Flea Fanatics, it is undisputed that the end of March is our favorite part of the year; besides March Madness, we have the beginning of the baseball season and the home stretch in the NBA and the NHL. A close second though has to be the beginning of Fall. Fall brings professional and fantasy football, the start of the hockey season, new television seasons are starting-- which makes DVR necessary because…it is also time for the baseball playoffs. What’s not to love about the playoffs, unless you are a Mets’ fan like the Golden Boy, and your team collapses like a deck of cards. Take a look at <a href="http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=3038686">this</a>. This is why baseball is phenomenal. After a 162 games, things could still come down to this. Don’t get us wrong, we love making our picks and wouldn’t make an excuse for a poor performance, but let’s just say we are preoccupied right now…and you should be too.
Week 4 (home teams are underlined) Baltimore 4.5 Cleveland If Baltimore played this game without a quarterback, would it even matter? Probably not, just have McGahee take the direct snaps, and if Cleveland stacks the box they could have McGahee attempt 10 or 11 passes to Todd Heap. If he completes 50%, it would be the same as having McNair or Seriously Kyle Boller, and they could use the extra man to block. As for the Browns, the best thing that could have happened to the Cleveland Browns was that the Indians won the division and made the playoffs. You gotta figure by the time the Indians get knocked out in the first round of the playoffs, it will be time for the Cleveland fans to once again turn their attention to King James. No one will remember that the Browns even played in 2007, and if they do, there is a strong chance they will remember the game when they scored 51 points against Cincy. Not the 14 other losses they suffered, or how brutal they looked losing them. PICK: Take the Ravens and give the points.
Carolina 3 Tampa Bay Imagine this scene…it is Tuesday night, just yours before Golden Boy’s midnight waiver deadline. He reads the following headline, “Carr to possibly play for Delhomme.” Immediately, he has two reactions. First, oh God, Steve Smith might not catch a ball for me Sunday. Second, oh God, I must claim the Tampa D. While he can’t do anything about the former, he most certainly was successful with the latter. The small silver lining on his Stormy Mets Cloud. PICK: Tampa
Chicago 3 Detroit From the Lions’ Lounge…Ding Dong, the Rex is dead. Quick, everybody jump on the Brian Griese bandwagon. I just checked the stats and Griese's aren't so bad (63% completions, 104 TD, 80 INT), especially when compared to NotSoSexyRexy. HOWEVAH, name me a big win engineered by Brian Griese... Okay, just name me one play that you remember from the various Griese eras in Tampa, Miami or Denver.... Didn't think so. There is a reason why a 63% passer with 24 more TDs than picks has sat behind a guy who had 3 QB ratings under 10 last season. What is that reason? I don't know, but if I did, I would have Matt Millen's job right now, and this column would be much less entertaining. But wait, the Bears D will carry the team as long as Rex isn't behind center right? The 2003 Bears? Yes. The 2006 Bears? Yes. This Bears D sans Mike Brown, Lance Briggs, Tommie Harris and maybe Nathan Vasher? No. These Lions just have too much firepower on offense to be shut down by a relatively-toothless Bears D Sunday. Expect a huge day from Roy Williams and Megatron if healthy. PICK: Take the Lions to win outright at +130. Dallas 12.5 St. Louis WARNING, WARNING!!!! Ladies and Gentlemen, this maybe the biggest trap game of the year. The red hot Dallas Cowboys are all ready being crowned NFC champs, Steven Jackson not playing this week, and Tony Romo is banging Carrie Underwood. What does Carrie Underwood have to do with this game? Everything! It seems that nothing can go wrong for the Cowboys right now. However, when things are perfect in the NFL, it usually means something bad is due to happen, that is unless you’re the Patriots or the Colts. What people may be overlooking is the possibility that the Rams may actually benefit this week from not having Jackson. Marc “check out my” Bulger will have to throw the ball 50 times against a secondary as suspect as the Mets’ bullpen. Remember Elisha Manning tore that same secondary apart week one. The Dallas D is not as good Rex “ewww” Grossman made them look. Bulger to Bennett will be the hot connection this week and may have Wade Phillips crapping in his adult diaper with regularity. PICK: Take St. Louis and the points. Jump on the over this week and watch the fireworks in the skies of Texas.
Green Bay 1.5 Minnesota Why is it that every time I watch the Packers play I find myself rooting for Brett Favre? I have no affiliation to the Pack or Favre. Mid week, when I think about Green Bay and evaluate their chances, there is nothing…no excitement, like Kordell Stewart at the Playboy Mansion. Then all of sudden, Sunday or Monday night comes along and you see Favre slinging a 90 mile an hour piss rocket at Donald Driver running across the middle with a corner on his back and a safety just milliseconds away. Your heart begins to pump and the hairs on your arm begin to rise. He is a guy everyone wants to play hard for. He even makes the Levi commercials bearable (honestly if you are going to play a pick up football game who is wearing jeans, nobody). All that being said, I am going to stick to my guns and my opinion last week, that this Green Bay team is going to come back to earth. FATTY’S PICK: Take the combo of the Minn D and A. Pete. GOLDEN BOY: I am sorry Ms. Jackson, but Favre is for real. Brett Favre meant to make the Vikings the cry….What do the Packers do well…air it out. Where does the Minnesota defense struggle…in the secondary. Plus this Packer D is pretty good, and it stops the run real well. Just ask LT. I am going with my new BF, Mr. BF. Houston 3 Atlanta This weekend is a homecoming for Matt Schaub, and he probably keeps that poop eating grin all weekend long. Schaub went from being a backup on a non-playoff NFC team to the starter of an up and coming Houston team that will compete for a playoff spot. This week, however, Schaub is likely without his two big offensive guns, Green and Johnson, which should keep this game low scoring and competitive. These types of games favor the home team. The Falcons are still a pretty good team, just missing a solid, consistent quarterback play, which is exactly what they were missing with the K-9 killer behind center. Atlanta is hungry for a win, and Josephine “Y-darb” Harrington is trying to cling to his starting job. PICK: We are just crazy enough to take Josephine Harrington and the points.
Indianapolis 9.5 Denver We have been playing the “Don’t sleep on the Broncos as one of the NFL’s elite teams” card for the first three weeks, and for the last two they have not cooperated. Listen Shanahan, we don’t need help looking stupid, we are more than capable of doing that on our own. Either A) Broncos aren’t that good or B) They are playing uninspired football. Does someone need to remind them that they had a teammate killed in the off-season, and they are supposed to be playing this season with a purpose and a fire? A win against Indy could certainly ignite this Broncos team to run away with an extremely weak AFC west division. Unfortunately, like Pedro and the Yankees, Manning is the Broncos’ daddy. Manning has exploited the Broncos in the past. BUT, things have changed recently, as the Broncos have added Bly to compliment Bailey. You have to think that the Colts are one of the reasons why the Broncos reinforced their secondary, because really there isn’t an AFC west team that can throw the rock. Point being, Denver was built to beat Manning’s Colts. PICK: Take the points and Denver.
Miami 4 Oakland Wow, the executives at CBS must be fired up to have the broadcasting rights for this one. Something tells me that if this game gets interrupted by Heidi, no one will care (for you young bucks out there who don’t understand the reference see… http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Heidi_Game and please brush up on your sports history). Oakland is quietly playing pretty solid football, competitive in all three games. They are one Sea Bass missed filed goal away from leading the AFC west right now. The Dolphins continue to embarrass their fans, themselves and their families. If Miami was ever going to win a game this year, this week is likely the one. However, as a rule anytime two below average teams are playing each other, take any points Vegas will give you PICK: Take the Raiders and the points.
Jets 3.5 Buffalo The city of Buffalo welcomes the start of the Senator Trent Edwards era this week. Can’t you just feel the excitement? A collective “Who is trent Edwards” was heard by NFL fans last Sunday after Blosman left the game. Let me tell you who Trent is, he is the son of Mr. and Mrs. Edwards, he is a Stanford graduate, and a slightly below average NFL quarterback. If you had the Bears or the Baltimore defense, you could probably get away with playing Edwards. But when you have the MASH unit known as the Buffalo Bills defense, you better have a man named Brady. We expect the Bills to do very little this week. Christine Pennington should receive a warmer welcome in Buffalo than he does in New York, and he will likely guide the Jets to an easy victory. PICK: Take the Jets, and lock it up, suicide style. Philadelphia 3 Giants FATTY: The Gmen were one half away from being dead and buried this NFL season. Before, the Eagles broke out the Queer Eye for the Straight Guy’s version of the 1980 LA Rams uniforms and dropped 51 on the Lions and God (sorry Disciple Kitna), they were also left for dead. Now, each team is one divisional win away from being legitimate again. It’s funny how one game swings your team’s outlook in a 16 game NFL season. BUT… it will be very difficult for the loser of this game to bounce back. Personally, I think Philly is the more dangerous team; better quarterback (sorry Elisha), better back (I have a fantasy crush on Mr. Westbrook), and a better defense. The Giants have a banged up Plexi-glass, and that is it. I am going to officially start the countdown that would have started last week had the Giants lost; “Number of days till Tom Coughlin is seen in the ESPN studio doing commentary and ripping Tiki Barber.” I am putting the over/under at 20 days, and taking the under. PICK: I am also taking Philly. GOLDEN BOY: Oh my big boned friend, how quickly we forget last week. The Giants showed the heart of a warrior in the second half on the road last week before a hostile DC crowd. That win last week, which occurred on the same day of the Mets last victory, turned the season around for the G-Men. Eli has showed great improvement with his leadership skills and decision making down the stretch. Also, the Giants’ pass rush showed up last week, and constantly pressured a Washington team with a more mobile QB and better O-Line than Philly. The crowd will be loud at Giants stadium, and look for the Giants to get after Donovan and get the big win. (If not, both my baseball and football seasons will end before October) PICK: G-MEN Pittsburgh 6 Arizona Coach Whiz takes on the Steelers, his former team and the team that didn’t hire him as their head coach. This should fire up the Whiz, though his players could probably give two craps. The Whiz should be familiar with the Steelers’ system. Unfortunately, Coach Whiz wont be putting pads on and his team is still as soft as puppy poop. These are the teams that Cowher feasts on. Expect Wee Willy to pound it down the Cardinals throat, and there is no “scheming” that can stop that. Pittsburgh is tough against the run, which should make for a long day for Edge. Could you imagine Matt Leinhart last week when he was told Kurt Warner was coming into to play for him? “Who, him? The guy with gray hair, that is always thanking god for his butch wife with her butch hair cut. Really? He is coming in for me? Ah screw it, I wonder how many chicks I can bang tonight”. PICK: Give the points, take the Steel Curtain. San Diego 11.5 KC Remember last week when wesaid that even Norv Turner couldn’t turn an LT led team that went 14-2 into an average NFL team? We may have been wrong, though the two Chargers’ losses both came on the road to the Patriots and the Packers, who both remain undefeated. We are not ready to buy the Chargers as an average team, and this is the week they regain their dominance. LT will reach the end zone 5 times, and Larry Johnson will attempt to kill Herm Edwards with his helmet on the sidelines. Edwards won’t be mad, he’ll just brush it off as another frustrating player trying to blow off some steam. Yeah, Herm that’s what it is, We wouldn’t worry about your only decent offensive player lambasting you in front of the national media. You certainly have control of this team. PICK: Chargers 40 Chiefs 6. Lock it up, suicide style.
Seattle 2 SF So Shaun Alexander has a cracked bone in his wrist, but he is going to continue to play. Listen I love the heart and the determination from Alexander, but is this really the best idea? A cracked bone? Couldn’t he just sit out for 6 weeks, heal that puppy up and be close to 100 for the second half of the season and the playoffs? Seattle is going to win that division or at least make the playoffs even without Alexander. The only test in the Western Division is the 49ers, who they play this week. Playing Alexander is risky and it would not be shocking to see the Seahawks pull out a win this week, and then come Tuesday, ESPN reports that Alexander will be sidelined for 5 weeks. As for the 49ers, they had a bit of a wake up call last week against one of the AFC’s elite, the Steelers. Similarly, Whitney got a wakeup call on the Hills when she tried to run a photo suit with Red Jump Suit Apparatus while she was hungover. 49ers are a nice team, but they are by no means ready to compete at the top of the NFL. Whitney is a nice girl, but she is not quite ready for the big time. Frank Gore continues to be all the Niners have, and against a balanced Seahawks team, that won’t be enough. PICK: Taking the Hawks and giving the points. New England 7 Cincy When asked what he thought about this weeks Monday night game, a national expert said, “I think a lot of points are going to be scored.” Really, you think these teams will score a lot of points? There is a reason radio and tv shows paid him a lot of money for that kind of in depth expert opinion. Unbelievable. This should be a very entertaining Monday night affair. Expect a lot more Maroney from the Patriots than Moss. Last year when the Patriots played against Cincy, Maroney had his coming out party and don’t expect BB to go against the grain. As for the Bengals, being without Rudi will hurt, but not as much against the Patriots as other teams. The Patriots have made all backs look ineffective this season, and Johnson would not have changed that. That leaves Carson and his talented gang of wide outs to put up the points. Couple things about the Bengals air attack; A. Palmer is a top three quarterback in the league, no questions asked. It is insulting when people put Farve, Bulger, Mcnabb ahead of him. B. T.J. whoseyourdaddy scares me a lot more than Chad Johnson. PICK: Pats to win and cover, and expect 80 points. VEGAS TIP OF THE WEEK : At the end of last week’s column, we mentioned having a little fun with TD prop bet. A TD prop bet allows you to select a player you think will score a touchdown. Usually, the most common option is to for you to select who will score the first TD of the game. Obviously, guys like LT have smaller payouts. However, selecting a TD prop does pay out more than simply choosing the winner of a game. This is because you are choosing one player out of versus just choosing between two teams.
Well readers, happy betting. Remember, nothing makes a weekend more enjoyable than adding a few additional points on a spread.
-- Fatty and The Golden Boy at www.fleafanatics.com
