Week 2: What are the Odds?
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What did we learn from week 1 in the NFL? We learned that we are very good at helping you make money and win your pick ‘em leagues, while acting smarter than yourfriends, co-workers and every ESPN analyst not named Steve Young. But honestly, who doesn’t know more than Keyshawn Johnson? Oh, that’s right Bill Simmons, the “Sports Guy” doesn't. His record in week 1, 7-7 with 2 pushes. Our record, 11-4-1. Let’s face it, we are smarter, wittier, more accurate, and better looking. To recap our highlights…we said that the New Orleans defense was soft as puppy poop—genius. We told you that the Minnesota run game would pull their dogsled to victory—brilliant. We even warned you not to take Philly in your respective suicide and offered you two foolproof alternatives…you are very welcome. And as much as you’d love to shut us up, our performance last week cannot be questioned. (Now picture two grown men doing the cabbage patch)
Week 2: (home teams are underlined)
Baltimore 11 New York Jets We are fairly certain when Clemens wakes up Sunday morning, there will be a brown stain in his bed. Nothing says welcome to the NFL quite like facing the Baltimore defense. Like a kid the day before Christmas, Ray Ray might not be able to sleep on Saturday night due to the excitement of blitzing the newbie. As good as the Baltimore D may be, their week 1 offense showed very little. Until that offense figures things out, an eleven point spread seems like too much at this point. Man-genius is smart enough to keep things close, and Clemens has a strong enough arm to hopefully keep the defense honest. PICK: Baltimore should win, but Jets will cover.
Carolina 6.5 Houston Let me ask you something, when Houston traded for Matt Schaub and shipped out David Carr, do you think Andre Johnson helped Carr pack for the move? Picture Johnson doing the Willie Mays Hayes celebration in Carr’s former parking lot as the U-haul truck pulls away. Schaub to Andre Johnson is going to become of the NFL’s elite connections going forward. Also, Houston’s defense is better than people think. Plus, if it is possible for a team to be your gambling nemesis, then for us it is the Carolina Panthers. They ALWAYS seem to lose the games they are supposed to win. "We stuck up for you Carolina. You no help me now. I say F$#@ you Carolina. I do it myself." PICK: Houston, and the under.
Chicago 12.5 Kansas City After the end of this game, all Larry Johnson owners will be asked to step slowly away from the ledge. Johnson is good for 20 carries for 50 yards…and 5 broken ribs. For the Bears, amazingly zero has changed since last season. Their defense is still good enough to beat the NFC Norris on their own, and their offense is bad enough to make sure they can’t beat any contending AFC teams. Luckily for the Bears, the Chiefs are the complete opposite of a contending AFC team. Expect at least one defense/special teams TD for the Bears, and hopefully Grossman keeps his turnovers under three. Golden Boy is locking this up, suicide style. PICK: Give the points, take Da Bears.
Cincinnati 6.5 Cleveland Did anyone else here the conversation between Kornheiser and Jaworski on Monday Night Football? Kornheiser made some comments about Chad and Rudi Johnson in succession. Jaws quickly followed that up by asking Kornheiser if he knew who the biggest Johnson on Cincinnati is? Hilarity ensued. The only thing more disappointing than Chad Johnson’s touchdown celebration on Monday night was the overall performance from the Bungles in the 2nd half. Baltimore tried to give them a 20 point victory, but Cincy wanted no part of it (likely because they wanted to bring our prediction of Cincy in a nail-biter to fruition). Cleveland is simply not very good, and even if Cincy continues to play at last week’s level, they should not any difficulty winning this game. That being said, we would still avoid this matchup in survivor pools-- Division games against home team underdogs are as predictable as Britney’s behavior. PICK: Cincy
Dallas 3.5 Miami Dallas continues to be one of the most talented, deep, and utterly confusing teams in the NFL. They continue to find a way to lose, or at the very least keep the game close, against inferior opponents. This year, the reason is clear; Wade Phillips is not a good coach. He also managed to enter the prestigious category of most awkward celebrations, which is currently occupied by Roger Federer, every pro golfer with their caddie, and most professional poker players. Still, Miami is miserable right now, and it is hard to believe that even the Pillsbury Dough Grandpa could give this game away. Dallas’ weakness is clearly in the secondary, but unfortunately, Miami’s air attack resembles a wilted paper airplane. PICK: Give the points, take the ‘Boys.
Denver 10 Oakland OK, so we may have given Oakland defense a little too much credit last week. Perhaps they are not ready for Justin Bobby “hot status.” Ten point spread seems like a lot for a team that barely squeaked by an inferior Buffalo team. This is what gamblers refer to as a trap game. Still, one has to think that Denver is better than Detroit, and this week the game is played in Mile High. Expect the Broncos to play much better than last week, and Travis Henry and Co. should have a few mile high salutes to celebrate. When in doubt, take the potential playoff team…especially when at home. PICK: Broncos
Detroit 3 Minnesota Last week, despite Fatty’s buddy Chuck being a huge Lions fan, we went against Detroit. Clearly, that didn’t work out, as it was one of the few games we got wrong. Perhaps, we just don’t have a feel for Kitna, Martz and Millen (though really can anyone predict Millen’s next move). Going forward, we have decided hand over the analysis of all future Lions’ games to Chucky himself. Why? A couple reasons, he has so little in his life right now, living in LA, having to deal with the perfect weather, the beautiful women, and the grind of working 6 hour shifts at a major sports network while trying to come up with the top 50 hockey plays. We reluctantly allowed him to name his segment on this blog as “Chuck’s Lion Lounge,” in honor of another Californian, the underrated JA Adande, who had a similar name for his time on Around the Horn. Without further ado…
Welcome one and all to the 1st edition of Chuck's Lion Lounge, which should make everybody long for the J.A. Adande lounge back when Around the Horn was still on the air. What's that? That show hasn't been cancelled yet? Really? Anyways, I'm here to give you the Lions’ lowdown as one of only two (yes, I know someone as delusional as I am) Lions’ fans in all of Patriot country.
Last week, Detroit poured it on in garbage time, even as Tatum Bell had garbage poured on him by Oakland's Black Hole. This Sunday, the Lions host Minnesota in a battle for (gulp) first place in the Norris Division. The Lions haven't beaten the Vikes since November of 2001, a stretch of 10 games that dates back to a simpler time before Ed Hardy t-shirts, Joba Chamberlain and the Dramatic Squirrel ( http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rfh4Mhp-a6U). Don't be fooled by the Vikes two pick-sixes last week against Joey the Pianist, their pass D is not good. Look for Kitna and the 4-headed receiving monster (you can add Shaun McDonald to RW, CJ, and Mike Furrey) to have a big day against that weak secondary. Minnesota fans will point out that the Lions’ pass defense may be the only one in the league worse than their own. Unfortunately for them, Tarvaris Jackson is their quarterback. PICK: Root for a shootout, and take the Lions to stop the streak at ten.
Indianapolis 7 Tennessee Everyone is talking about last year’s game when Tennessee beat the Colts, but for whatever reason, everyone refuses to talk about what the Colts did to arguably the best team in the NFC last Thursday night. We like Vince Young and the Titans against most teams in the AFC, but the Colts are not most teams. As evidenced last Thursday, there is nothing more frustrating than rooting for a team to get a stop against Colts. When Manning doesn’t throw an interception, this team scores 75% of the time. Ask yourself, how often does Manning get picked? Enough said. Plus, Golden Boy needs a huge day from fantasy Peyton, as he plays the Fleafounder in a rematch of last year’s keeper league final. If that isn’t a big enough reason to root for the Colts, what is? PICK: Indianapolis …and would 3 QB sneak TDs be too much to ask.
Jacksonville 10 Atlanta Jacksonville is a much better team than they showed in Week 1. The Jags can typically run the football and play solid defense, which are the two more important signs of success in the NFL. The Falcons, on the other hand, may be in for a very long season. Joey Harrington defenders can say what they want…He never had good receivers, never had a good offensive line, etc. While that may be true again for Harrington in Atlanta, he just seems to be one of those players who is just destined to fail. Tipped balls, forced throws, dropped passes all seem to occur at the most inopportune times for Joey. He is almost the anti-Brady, the backwards Brady, or Y-Darb. The issue is not whether Jacksonville will win, but will they cover. We think they will. MoJo and Freddy should combine for over 150 on the ground, and Y-Darb and the Atlanta offense will do very little to counter. PICK: Jags
New England 3.5 San Diego You know what everyone should do, everyone should make a huge deal of the Patriots having a camera pointed at the Jets’ coaches giving signals. They should make it the lead story of every website, sports show, and newspaper in the United States. They should call the Patriots cheaters and say that now their Super Bowls are tarnished because of the advantage they likely gained. You know what else everyone should do, everyone should ignore the fact that Shawn Merriman took steroids while playing games in the leagues. Everyone should keep pouring fuel on the Patriots fire and see where it gets them. The Pats will win this game and cover. Lock it up, championship.
Please disregard the above paragraph…Fatty’s emotions got the best of him, and he felt obligated to defend his beloved Pats. Unfortunately, the Golden Boy is forced to objectively analyze this one han-solo. Yes, this game involves “cheaters” on both sides. Sure, the actions of BB, Harrison and Merriman may cause some to question the overall results. Just know this, steroids and cameras aside, these are two of best teams in the NFL and two likely Super Bowl contenders. It is a shame that all of this other nonsense takes away from that. New England will do all they can to contain LT and force Rivers to beat them…and I am not sure that Rivers can get the job done. This game should be close and wildly entertaining. When in doubt, I have to go with the team less prone to the big mistake. Take the better QB, take the experience… PICK: Pats
New Orleans 3.5 Tampa Bay Hold onto your seats kids, we are going to blow your mind with this little analogy. The pregame montage with Peyton and Reggie Bush last Thursday was synonymous with how the game actually played out. Its not that Bush’s performance was awful, it’s just that he was outclassed by a better player and actor, just as the Saints were outclassed on Thursday night. We all know that Bush is better than he showed last week, and this week he doesn’t have to worry about living up to the Manning hype. Expect Bush and the entire New Orleans offense to make the Tampa defense feel like they were slipped one of David Boston’s GHB pills. PICK: Take the Saints, give the points…and then give a few more points.
NY Giants NL Green Bay Going into the season, I did not love Big Blue’s chances. Their offense was limited a plodding Jacobs and Eli’s blind heaves to the PlexiGlass. Now, Jacobs and the Future Ozzie Canseco are on the sideline, and it looks grim for the G-Men. On a side note, who isn’t excited about the beginning of the Hefty Lefty’s Era in the Big Apple? I can’t wait until he pulls an Italian hero out of his pants in the middle of the game, and Coughlin can do nothing but shake his head at him. The Packers defensive started off the season on a high note holding down a fairly potent Eagles offense last week, and I expect nothing less this week. PICK: Take the Cheeseheads (Fatty) Well since Fatty had his time to rant about his beloved Cheaters, I get to do the same about my fragile, grinder eating Giants. The Giants have to win this game, mostly because if they do not, my football season will end before Hockey season starts. The Giants D will rebound, sort of, this week, mostly because the Pack’s offense is not nearly as balanced as Dallas’. The Giants will have a lively Meadowlands’ crowd as their twelfth man on both sides of the ball. Eli will shock the world, show his toughness, and play just well enough to lead the Giants to a close victory. (And if they have to go with the Hefty Lefty, then let’s just hope enough oil and vinegar slides out of that hero and trips up the Green Bay Defense. PICK: G-Men (Golden Boy). And yes, I continue to be a delusional homer.
Pittsburgh 9.5 Bills At first glance, this seems like a gimme game for the Steelers, even with the 9.5 spread. Let’s not forget that Pittsburgh beat up on a very below average Cleveland team, while the Bills lost a groin-kicker to a likely playoff team. Plus, do you really expect Motorcycle Ben to go off for another 4TDs? Still, we just can’t bring ourselves to pick Buffalo here. This Bills team lost several key contributors from last season, McGahee and Clements to name a few. Plus, we just don’t have the confidence in J.P. (B)losman (for reasons emphasized below). PICK: Take the Steel Curtain …Fatty is, in suicidal fashion.
Seattle 3 Arizona As we predicted, the “sexy” Cardinals, aka the NFL’s Audrina, let everyone down last week. Expect more of the same from Arizona. The Cardinals seem destined to be a sexy trendy pick that refuses to reach its full potential. Here’s a new theory for determining the success of an NFL team…check out the hairstyle of the starting quarterback. For example, Matt Hasselback is going bald, and he appears confident in the manner in which he carries his bare dome. Manning and Brady possess the “every guy over 27” haircut. It’s not flashy or glamorous, just consistent and expected. Guys like Leinhart and (B)lowsman, they have the floppy, windblown Hollywood cuts. These guys would rather “look good first and win second.” PICK: Take the Bald Guy’s team. (And yes, as we bald we are slightly jealous of Leinhart’s luscious locks).
St.Louis 3 San Francisco After this game, we will know a lot more about both of these teams. Unfortunately, we have to make the pick before this game is played. And frankly, that is why you are paying us the big money. The 49ers style of play translates well against weaker opponents, but it won’t allow them to comeback from an early deficit. Perhaps you have not seen the Steven Jackson/Shawn Merriman commercial yet, but with Steven Jackson carrying all those defenders into the end zone, we have a feeling the 49ers could be in for a long day. Tory “Big Game” Holt against Nate “Big Money” Clements should make for a great matchup. You have to figure the 49ers gave him such a huge contract for these exact situations. Unfortunately, that matchup may prove to be irrelevant, as the Greatest Show on Turf should be riding SJ (Mr. Jackson if your nasty) all day. PICK: Give the points and ride the dreads. Also, if your betting venue allows for it, put down $5 on Vernon Davis having the next Ron Artest like outburst. That rage is just DYING to come out and play
Philly 6.5 Washington HUGE game this week for the Eagles. If Philly begins 0-2, that will leave them in a huge hole early in the season and probably drive Andy Reid’s kid to go on another bender. Both of these teams have strong running games and solid defenses, and it will probably come down to the quarterback play. Even though he still looks injured, you have to take McNabb over Campbell right now. It’s the Philly opener at home, and he knows how badly they need this one. If the Redskins can find a way to win this game, and Jason Campbell winds up having a nice season, then he has to be the front runner to replace McNabb on the Campbell Soup commercials. I mean the advertising basically writes itself. PICK: Eagles, though we really want to see that commercial.
VEGAS TIP OF THE WEEK : At the end of last week’s column, we mentioned having a little fun with a three team parlay. A parlay involves putting multiple single bets together to get a little more bang for your buck. You can parlay several bets together or as little as two. However, you need to get all bets correct to win the parlay. A good strategy is to parlay a few “sure things” to increase your payout while still minimizing your risk.
Well readers, happy betting. Remember, nothing makes a weekend more enjoyable than a little 6.5 teaser.
--The Golden Boy and Fatty at FleaFanatics.com
