Week 2: Fantasy Matchups
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One thing I love about sports is how you can hear things said that in any other context would be completely inappropriate. Every time John Madden bellows, “He sees the hole—right there—and he hits it…BAM!” I can’t help but think that he should be doing play-by-play in an entirely different industry. My favorite quote of the past year, however, comes from tangent-loving Red Sox analyst Dennis Eckersley, whose circuitous routes and lack of articulation are matched only by former Red Sox player Wily Mo Peña’s adventures in the outfield. I’ll leave you to decipher the context, but here’s quote of the week:
“I fall in love with guys who have gas.”
I’ve decided to shorten up the intros, so you get more fantasy analysis and less me trying to be funny. Some changes for this week’s matchups. I have decided to rename “exploits” after the underdog of the week or the player who best took advantage of the prior week’s matchups. Conversely, handle with care will be the player who did the worst job of maximizing what should have been a terrific week. As you will see, I have changed things up a bit, since player rankings at the beginning of the season can be misleading. Below you will find my matchup season record, broken down into each position, so you can tell whether to trust me or not and where. Enjoy!
Season Record: 20-9-1 QB: 3-3 RB: 3-0-1 WR: 4-2 TE: 2-2 K: 2-2 DEF: 6-0
Ronald Currys:
The following matchups are of players who are questionable starts for many fantasy owners, who should start based on their matchup this week:
QB:
Trent Green, DAL @ MIA Green surprised a lot of people by posting fairly good numbers in Week 1 against the Redskins. I have a really good feeling about Miami’s offensive players this week, because they are going against a Dallas D that got a Get Out of Jail Free Card for their performance last week, because the Giants D was even worse. I see Green having a typical solid performance of around 17 fantasy points.
Brett Favre, GB @ NYG Congratulations Brett, you’re the next contestant on Play the Giants, the game where everyone is a winner. Really, could the Giants have looked any worse against the Cowboys? Granted, the Cowboys offense is decent, but it is nowhere near dominant. The great thing for Favre is that the Packers can’t run the ball, so he’ll rack up the yards and probably mix in a couple touchdowns. I am guaranteeing 300 yards.
Jeff Garcia, NO @ TB Garcia had a solid but unspectacular performance last week and was really only missing the touchdowns. Solid completion percentage, decent yardage, but no dice on the TDs. Well, anyone who saw the Saints against the Colts knows there are issues in the New Orleans secondary, and I’m betting they take more than a week to correct. The potential absence of Cadillac should also lead to more passing plays. Garcia won’t blow up, but he’ll enjoy going toe-to-toe with Drew Brees in a relative shootout and will get you around 20 fantasy points this week.
RB:
Maurice Jones-Drew, ATL @ JAX This one is debatable, as MoJoDrew is a top back, but I’d guess that more than a few fantasy owners are questioning replacing him in the lineup with one of Week 1’s waiver-wire wonders. This week is not to the time to do it, however, as Adrian Peterson showed last week that the Falcons are vulnerable to powerful and fast runners. Drew will run and catch his way to a very solid performance and snag you at least 15 fantasy points and likely 20.
Ronnie Brown, DAL @ MIA Me and Ronnie’s love affair got off to a rocky start last week, with his very mediocre performance. The good news is that Jesse Chatman is a bit beat up, he fumbled the ball, and he did nothing with his carries, even when compared to Run Ronnie Run. Well, as I mentioned with Trent Green, the Dallas D looked terrible at home against the Giants, and the Dolphins will try to kill them with screen passes and dump offs—both things at which Ronnie is very good. Hopefully he can calm the taunts of the Golden Boy and CubanC, who have begun referring to him as Ronnie “Doo-Doo” Brown because he has a tendency to drop deuces on the football field. Sunday is the first day in the Ronnie Brown Revolution. 15 fantasy points.
Jamal Lewis, CIN @ CLE One thing that struck me from the Cincy/Baltimore game was the size of the holes that Willis McGahee was running through. They were enormous. I haven’t seen holes like that, since (insert pornstar’s name here). The only way for Cleveland to stay in this game is to run the ball effectively and keep the ball out of Carson Palmer and Rudi Johnson’s hands. I’m not saying they will do it well, but at least they’ll try. I predict 50+ yards and a touchdown.
WR:
Chris Chambers, DAL @ MIA The Dallas secondary struggled last week in containing Plaxico Burress, a tall, athletic, relatively quick, deep threat. Sound familiar? While Chambers isn’t in the same class as Plex, he is dangerous, and Trent Green has already shown a willingness to get him the ball. 15 points for the man from Wisconsin.
Donald Driver, GB @ NYG If Brett Favre is going to throw for 300+ yards, Driver is going to gain a good deal of it. I don’t enjoy making hard-to-reach predictions, but I see a definite possibility of 150 yards receiving.
Braylon Edwards, CIN @ CLE But, Toby, you just said that Cleveland would be committed to the run; what happened? Well, two things work in Edwards’ favor this week, three if you count the fact that the second best WR on the team is Joe Jurevicious. 1) Cleveland will only be able to make it at most until halftime without having Cincinnati gain a double-digit lead, which means they will have to begin throwing the ball. 2) When Cincinnati loads the box to stop Lewis, Braylon can be the beneficiary of some play-action, which could net him a long touchdown. Let’s go with between 12 fantasy points.
TE:
Mercedes Lewis, JAX @ ATL Mercedes Lewis is a solid talent who should benefit from David Garrard’s appointment at QB. I’m not going to go with anything outrageous, but expect him to catch a few passes and turn one short dump into a relatively long play. 7 fantasy points is the guess.
Alex Smith, NO @ TB New Orleans struggled to take away Dallas Clark last Thursday and Smith should catch a few balls thrown his way. Best guess: 5 fantasy points.
Visanthe Shiancoe, MIN @ DET You’ve got me; I love saying Vinsanthe’s name. I’m just not sure which part I like more, the Vinsanthe, or the Shiancoe. Detroit’s pass D is terrible and Tarvaris Jackson should respond to the noise of his first away crowd by stressing All Day Peterson and short dump offs. Have you noticed I also like saying dump off? 5 fantasy points.
K:
David Akers, WAS @ PHI I’m not usually a fan of Akers, but I think Philly is in for a good week. Donovan McNabb plays best when his back is against the wall or people doubt him. Last week everyone was sure that McNabb would be back in full force, but he clearly wasn’t. Now that adversity is on his side, he will respond accordingly. This will mean many points for Philly and Akers by extension: 10 points.
Jason Hanson, MIN @ DET It is my personal mission to inform the world of Jason Hanson’s fantasy greatness. He is in the PERFECT offense for field goals and he is going up against the PERFECT defense for field goals (allows the pass, but shuts down the run). As a result, I am predicting fantasy magic, to the tune of 5 FGs and 18 points in yardage-based leagues.
Neil Rackers, SEA @ ARI I personally feel that the Seattle defense is overrated and I look for a bounce-back week for Cardinals and their offense. The Cardinals will put up 30+ points, which will bag Rackers 10 points.
DEF:
Miami vs. DAL Well, I’m going balls-to-the wall on this one. After Miami disappointed against the Redskins slightly and Dallas mutilated the Giants, it would make sense if Dallas was once again successful. This is all gut, but I get the sense that this one will surprise many people, with Tony Romo struggling and Jason Taylor in his face all day. I see 3 interceptions and one returned for a touchdown for the Dolphins.
Cincinnati @ CLE I was going to try and stay away from this one, since it is the most obvious pick of the week. But, I’m undefeated at picking team defenses and would like to stay that way. Cleveland’s offense is terrible and they will need to throw. 5 sacks and a few turnovers.
Oakland @ DEN My Raiders defense was embarrassed last week by the freakin’ Lions. I have decided to rationalize their failure as the result of six weeks of going against the Raiders offense in practice and showing up on the field against a top notch and Mike Martz-choreographed passing offense. This will be a low scoring affair, with a field goal being the decider. Nnamdi Asomugha shows up Champ Bailey, snatching 2 passes from Jay Cutler’s inexperienced arm, one that is brought back for 6 points.
Steven Jacksons:
The following matchups are of players who would be likely starts after their performances last week, who are in for a rough time because of their matchups:
QB:
Tony Romo, DAL @ MIA I have already written about this in my pick of the Miami D, but Romo really isn’t that good. How many tough passes did you see him make against the Giants? Miami will force him into making quick decisions and Romo isn’t the brightest at the helm. Look for him to toss a few into the arms of the Dolphin secondary and be held to under 12 fantasy points.
Jay Cutler, OAK @ DEN Cutler impressed many people with his display against Buffalo, but the Bills are weakened in the secondary with the loss of Nate Clements. The Raiders D is for real and they will hassle Cutler into a few mistakes, including an ill-conceived out route that Asomugha will jump and take to the house. My prediction, 10 fantasy points.
Jake Delhomme, HOU @ CAR Jake Delhomme is not good. Week 1 was an aberration and the improving Texans D will do enough to harass him into a couple picks and only modest yardage. Welcome back, Jake! 10 fantasy points.
RB:
Marshawn Lynch, BUF @ PIT The Denver run defense is overrated and I still think Lynch will not be a good back this year or any year until the Bills’ o-line improves. Pittsburgh is a very solid, no-nonsense defense that will harass every Bill players except for Lee Evans, who is primed for a long touchdown reception. I have a sense for these things. Lynch fumbles once and is help to under 6 fantasy points.
Chris Brown, IND @ TEN Chris Brown is not a 10 yards/carry back. He is a back up and will return to said position as well as numerous waiver wires after facing the Colts. 5 fantasy points.
WR:
Raiders WRs @ DEN I love Ronald Curry and he was my inaugural pick to represent the exploiters, but Champ Bailey is good and the Broncos secondary is a significant improvement over the Lions. All Raiders wideouts struggle and fail to catch a touchdown pass.
Randy Moss, SD @ NE Moss burst onto the scene last week with a monster performance, making my taunting of a friend for picking Moss in the first round of our keeper draft look ill-advised. Randy is a solid player, but Quentin Jammer and an actual pass rush will make life much tougher for the reborn receiver. Did I mention I am playing my friend this week? 0 TDs and 80 yards.
Javon Walker, OAK @ DEN I will mention Nnamdi Asomugha’s name for the third time in this column and leave it at that. 7 fantasy points.
TE:
Jason Witten, DAL @ MIA Witten looked like the most elusive tight end of all time last week, but will be matched up against a linebacking corps that held Chris Cooley to one catch and 10 yards. Look for more of the same this week: 20 yards.
Todd Heap, NYJ @ BAL One of my busts for the year got robbed of a TD last week on a questionable pass interference call. It’s just a shame I was going against him in one of my leagues. I knew that would happen and I know that Heap will continue to struggle. 3 points.
K:
Nate Kaeding, SD @ NE This is a big game for San Diego and their confidence heading into the playoffs in 16 weeks time. Did I say this was a big game? Kaeding will go missing as usual when it counts. 2 points.
DEF:
Seattle @ ARI As I mentioned earlier, I think Arizona will put up big points against the Seahawks. The Cardinals showed more balance in their offensive game against the 49ers, but still had a lot of Week 1 timing issues that should work themselves out. Should be a big week for Leinart and Edge and, as a result, a bad week for the Seahawks defense.
SD @ NE While the Patriots line will not be as sturdy and absurd as it was against the Jets, it should still keep the Chargers at bay while the offensive balance of Brady & Co. should net them at least 24 points and solid yardage. I would also hate to be the Patriots’ opponent now that everyone is questioning their dominance over the last 6 years as a result of the videotape scandal. Should be a fun game, but I think it will end up being a 10-point Patriots victory when all is said and done.
Well, all is said and done. As always, thanks for reading,
--Toby Guevin
In Tennessee, Chris Brown is going to get the bulk of the carries. LenDale White sucks, and Chris Henry is a rook. He may not rush for 175, but he sure as hell is not a scrap heap guy just because the Colts shut down New Orleans.
Same with Marshawn Lynch. Buffalo has an offensive line, which is more than can be said for Cleveland. The Steelers will have to respect the pass, which opens up plenty of running lanes.