Week 1 NFL Picks!

Posted on 3rdstringsafety.blogspot.com before the Saints-Colts game, Since I'n an honest guy, I won't change it now.

Saints v. Colts, Thurs. 8:30 PM

I'm not one of those people who have spent the summer drinking the Saints kool-aid. I still think their defense is so weak that it is truly going to cost them games rather than keep then in them. While they have a ton of talent on offense, I just don't trust teams with weak defenses to maintain success. A classic example of this is Marvin Lewis' Bengals. While the Bengals have a great Quarterback in Carson Palmer and more receiving talent in the back-ups than some teams do with their starters, there defense has held them down so badly that they have been 8-8 in three of Lewis' first four seasons. The one season that they flourished was a case of everything going right, but when it doesn't all go right it causes them a lot of problems.

However, I do think that they will win this games because the Colts are such a similar team. As such, I beleive we are headed for a huge disappointment from them. While I think that they will still make the playoffs, There is something to be said for one man carrying an entire team. Peyton Manning has always kept them in games, but I just don't think that he can keep doing this. Even with his "Laser, Rocket Arm."

Saints 35 - Colts 31

Game MVP: Drew Brees

Patriots @ Jets, Sun. 1:00 PM

Eric Mangini is an excellent coach, but the Jets still lack the overall talent level to compete at a high level. Their man hope for this game is to pound the ball with new Running Back Thomas Jones, and keep the ball out of Tom Brady's hands. The only problem is a stout (even if they are overrated) defense will keep the Jets offense off of the field.

Patriots 24 - Jets 7

Game MVP: Tom Brady

Chargers v. Bears, Sun. 4:15 PM

Norv Turner - Meet LaDanian Tomlinson and the rest of the most talented team in the NFL. If you screw this up, then we know that you are actually the worst head coach in the history of the league.

LDT owners rejoice: Expect him the touch the ball a whole bunch in every game this season. Rex Grossman Owners: What the hell were you thinking? Expect him to throw at least two picks and fumble once in each game this season.

Chargers 31 - Bears 14

Game MVP: LaDanian Tomlinson

Giants @ Cowboys, Sun. 8:30 PM

Homer Pick Alert! I'm warning you now that I have a vey hard time picking against the Giants. It doesn't always end up with me thinking they will win, but I do give them a little more credit then they probably deserve. Proceed with caution.

Last Year, Eli torched that Cowboys in the monday night contest when he had all of his weapons available (Read: Amani Toomer was healthy.) and now, he has even more weapons to throw to in Steve Smith and a healthy Sinorice Moss. Everyone is so worried about the Giants offense because they don't understand how the team plans to replace Tiki Barber. Go back to the Baseball Bible, Moneyball by Michael Lewis, and read the chapter called The Giambi Hole. In layman's terms, you have to understand that Brandon Jacobs is not expected to replace Barber's production. A combination of Jacobs, Moss, Smith and the three headed monster of Ahmad Bradshaw/Reuben Droughns/Derrick Ward will replace Barber's yards.

Tony Romo doesn't really scare me all that much. I don't really know if he is all that good. All of the hype last year came from being better than a washed up Drew Bledsoe, and all of the negatives came from the one Botched hold. In reality, I can see him being a good game manager, as long as he has weapons around him. Terry Glenn will be going head to head with Corey Webster, who is his personal kryptonite. The Giants will have to contain the running back tandem of Julius Jones and Marion Barber Tres in order to have a chance to compete.

The Cowboys should be able to obtain a substanial pass rush, but they always have against the Giants, and that doesn't always lead to victory. Expect them to target and take advantadge of the league's most overrated player: SS Roy Williams.

Giants 27 - Cowboys 20

Game MVP: Eli Manning

Eagles v. Packers, Sun. 1:00 PM

Oh, How I would love for this to be Brandon Jackson's breakout game. How I wouls love for the Eagles to get buried in week 1. It won't happen though.

I like the Packers Blueprint, but as long as Favre is their, they can't really change the system away from his strengths. Defensively, They are still very suspect.

Eagles 27 - Packers 13

Game MVP: Donovan McNabb

Other Games:

Kansas City 20 - Houston 7

Pittsburgh 24 - Cleveland 6

Washington 17 - Miami 7

St. Louis 24 - Carolina 14

Minnesota 13 - Atlanta 7

Jacksonville 20 - Tennessee 13

Seattle 31 - Tampa Bay 14

Detroit 17 - Oakland 7

Baltimore 21 - Cincinnati 17