Week 1: What are the odds?
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Before the invention of fantasy football (and phenomenal sites such as FleaFlicker—gotta love shameless plugs), office pools dominated football Sundays. Here at FleaFanatics, we will try and offer our “expert” opinions to guide you to the big 17 week payout and bragging rights around your respective water coolers. Your two resident experts, Fatty and the Golden Boy used NFL Sunday football betting lines/pools to get through the trying times of law school. We once reserved an entire study room for final exams, only to spend three hours using the large chalkboard in an attempt to establish a gambling strategy as fool proof as the west coast offense (True Story). Though we never quite perfected that gambling plan, hopefully we learned enough to pass on to you guys. As can be expected, we don’t agree on every game, and there will be some conflicting picks. Without further ado…..
Week 1: (home teams are underlined)
Indianapolis -6 New Orleans. You know what we lost last year, we lost the Manning face. Who didn’t love Peyton Manning walking off Foxboro hands in the air, and his face looking like Teddy Washington had just dropped a gas bomb on his face. That sad demeanor similar to a fat kid who was told there was no more cake. Last year, Manning traded that face in for his status as the reigning champ. One year has not completely sold us that Peyton can consistently win the big game or win at New England. However, even under the old Manning regime, this is the kind of game the Colts would typically win. The Saints defense is about as soft as puppy poop sitting out in the sun. The Saints defense gets run over and Indy’s D hangs in there long enough to handle Brees and Bush. Pick: Indy, and do yourself a favor and take the over too (52.5).
Dallas -5.5 NY Giants This is a game of firsts. The first time of probably 7 meetings between these two teams this year, or at least it feels that way every year. This is the first game as head coach of the Cowboys for Wade Phillips, the Pillsbury Dough Grandpa. (He will have pooped his pants during a game by week 10.) This is the first time Brandon Jacobs gets a chance to carry the preferable “load”, and the first time Giants fans realize that Tiki was an overrated, selfish player who handcuffed the franchise and then threw them under the bus to make himself a TV star. Yes Fatty and the Golden Boy can find common ground with Tiki’s selfishness and Phillips need for a diaper, but that’s where our agreement ends…
- Fatty: Eli is not good, and neither is the Giants’ D. Enough said. Pick: Dallas covers.
- Golden Boy: Yes, the Giants secondary is pretty poor, but their exceptional front seven should force Tony No-No into a few costly mistakes. Division games are always close, and Dallas is turning to the aforementioned P.D.G. for its four quarter decision making. This game will likely be decided by a FG, and neither team has a kicking game worth bragging about. Pick: Giants to cover.
Denver -3 Buffalo Shhhhhhhhh. Don’t tell anyone but Denver is pretty good and Buffalo is pretty bad. This might be the best Denver defense since… well, since ever. The Broncos have two shut down corners in Bly and Bailey, athletic linebackers including the underrated D.J. Williams, and a solid veteran line. The Denver offense doesn’t impress, and we are still not sold on Cutler. Luckily for them, in this game, it shouldn’t matter. J.P. (B)Losman is not ready for this game, and neither is rookie Marshaun Lynch. The Denver D might outscore the Buffalo O. Pick: Denver and take the under…just hope Bailey doesn’t take two the house.
Houston -3 KC Remember when the Kansas Chiefs couldn’t move the ball against the Colts defense in the 2006 playoffs? Well we do, and this offense will not be getting better anytime soon. Green was replaced with the offensive gunslinger, Damon Huard. The focus of the passing game remains the triple covered Tony Gonzalez and the triple miserable Eddie Kennison for the 25th straight year. Larry Johnson is not in game shape yet, and even if he was, he will be a daunting task to elude the ten in the box that defenses should throw at him. Matt Schaub isn’t great. He won’t win the game for Houston, but he isn’t going to lose it for them either. Pick: Houston
Jacksonville -6.5 Tennessee The Jags are usually a good bet at home, but 6.5???? This is one of those games where we tip our cap to Vegas, give ‘em a slap on the ass, and run like hell from betting on this game. If we must choose (which is essentially the point of this column), let’s go with the Titans. Their defense is solid, even sans “The RainMaker” Pac Man Jones, and Vince Young will quickly become the betting population’s gambling nemesis. Finally, it is not a good sign when you switch quarterbacks one week before the season starts, even if Bryon Leftwich and David Garrard are really identical twins switched at birth. Pick: Tennessee, begrudgingly.
Minnesota -3 Atlanta This game couldn’t interest us any less. We can only hope PETA storms the field and adds a little excitement to this matchup. In the dog eat dog world of NFL football, defenses and consistent quarterbacks will make you the Best in Show. The Vikings defense is very good, and it has a knack of sniffing out and stifling the other teams’ rushing attack. Furthermore, Joey “don’t call me Padraig” Harrington isn’t exactly the model of consistency at quarterback. Minnesota’s running game, behind the tandem of Adrian Peterson and Chester Taylor, should pull the Vikings’ sled to victory. The Falcons can only hope that their talented corners fetch a few of Jackson’s errant tosses and run them all the way back to the (dog)house. Ok, we may have gone too far with that last comment, but you get the point. Pick: Vikes
New England -6.5 NY Jets The game of chess between Bellichek and Mangini continues, as the Jets recently signed Reche “crazy eyes” Caldwell just days before and the teams’ first matchup. This is a great move by Man-genius, who continues to pull out all the stops. That being said, the Pats are a Super Bowl contender, and the Jets are not. Chad’s brain just may not be enough. Today’s quarterback needs brain and brawn (an arm), see Brady; see also Manning. New York hasn’t seen an arm as weak as Chad’s since….well since the Yankees signed Johnny Damon to three hop throws into the second base bag, but we digress. However, as the Golden Boy so eloquently discussed earlier, division games are typically close. Jets will have the Meadowlands’ crowd behind them, and their defense should keep some of the Pats’ fantasy studs in check. Pick: Pats will win, but the Jets will cover.
Oakland -1.5 Detroit Does anyone really care? Neither of these teams will be around in January. Fatty’s buddy Chuck cares, so for now, we will too. Oakland is shaping up to be the type of team that will only win 6 or 7 games, but they will be giving other teams fits all season long. The only thing hotter in Cali than the Oakland D this year is Justin Bobby. (Staring at the blank page before me, open up the dirty window…FEEL THE RAIN ON YOUR SKIN). This sexy defense and a serviceable running back (LJ-Deuce) should keep them in a lot of games. As for Detroit, they shouldn’t have a problem scoring points. Kitna isn’t shy about slinging the ball and he pads his stats in meaningless games in a very A-Rod-esque fashion. With that said, expect a late Kitna strike to pull Detroit within 3 as the clock expires. Pick: Take the Raiders, and then talk trash to your buddies on Monday when you look smarter than them.
Philly -3 Green Bay Remember when you would never bet against Brett Favre playing at Green Bay? Yes, that was a long time ago, and like Ali Larter once said to Dawson while wearing a whipping cream bikini, “things change.” Brett Favre and Green Bay are no longer a team to be feared at home. Mark Chumura is no longer catching touchdown passes; instead he is making passes at high school babysitters. McNabb isn’t hurt yet (check back in Week 4), and he and Westbrook will make this a long day for the cheeseheads. Pick: Philly
- WARNING***** DO NOT TAKE PHILLY IN YOUR SUICIDE/SURVIVOR POOL. Yes, Philly should win this game. However, it is generally a fatal mistake to take a road team in week 1. An upset on the road is much more likely in week 1 than any other week sans the meaningless week 17 games. This week take Seattle at home. Lock it up
Pittsburgh -4.5 Cleveland You know that dating service commercial where they have the Browns and Steelers fans together saying that if the service can bring them together than anyone can do it? Yeah, I hate that commercial and so does every Pittsburgh Steelers’ fan. You think Steelers’ fan like being referred to as the Browns’ rival??? How can Cleveland be a rival when the stink? Drew Carey was very wrong, Cleveland does not rock. Unless Jim Brown is walking out that tunnel, the Cleveland Browns don’t stand a chance of competing with Pittsburgh. Except Parker, Holmes, Ward and Motorcycle Ben to all get involved in the fantasy party. This analysis hurts Fatty the most, because (a) he loves Romeo (he expects him back in New England next year with his cup of Beef stew waiting) and (b) the Golden Boy is going against his Suicide Pool warning and taking Pittsburgh as his lock this week. Pick: Pitt
San Diego -6 Chicago Lets go with the Whale’s Vagina on this one. Yes, the Bears defense should scare a lot of teams, and it may even be able to “contain” LT, and by that we mean keeping him under 175 all purpose yards. However, containing LT will not be enough. This isn’t of the Bears’ Pop Warner scrimmages against their fellow NFC opponents. The Bears will lining up against one of the best in the AFC and a virtual lock to make to the playoffs. If the Bears offense can move the ball effectively against the talented and underrated Chargers defense, then Britney might just raise two normal kids after all. Grossman may heave a few in Berrian’s direction late in the game to put a few points on the board. Regardless, the Chargers should remain in control throughout. Stay Classy! Pick: San Diego and the over (43)
Seattle -6 Tampa Bay Fatty’s future brother-in-law was at the bar with his then current girlfriend when the bartender hands them a couple of drinks and says that they were from the gentlemen at the end of the bar. Low and behold, it is Lofa Tatupu of the Seattle Seahawks. He has the audacity to order to openly hit on a girl who is clearly at the bar with another guy. What do you do if you’re the other guy? That’s right, nothing. He is an NFL linebacker who can do what he wants—just ask Ray Lewis. All you can say is, “honey good luck, I hope it works out and I want 10%”. When Tatupu isn’t out picking up the ladies, he is busy playing for the better football team in this matchup. To be honest, we are not even sure who the starting QB of the Bucs is? Simms? Crapkowski? Plummer? Brad Johnson? Dexter Jackson? Shaun King? It’s Garcia, but really does it matter? Pick: Seattle and give the points.
Washington -3 Miami Miami has set itself up for a dismal season. They passed on Brady Quinn in the draft, only to trade for the very average and very old Trent Green. Additionally, they have created a running back controversy, which is the position that was most stable going into this season. Ronnie Brown, the Dolphins best player the last two seasons, may be splitting carries with Jesse Chatman. Seriously, Jesse Chatman???? On top of all that, Zach Thomas and Jason Taylor are another year removed from their prime. It is safe to say the 1976 Dolphins’ team record will not be broken this year. On the flipside, this team may break the streak for most consecutive losses. We are by no means in love with Washington, but they are the lesser of two evils. The Portis/Betts combination should tire out the Miami defense by the fourth (Miami defense might be on the field for over 40 minutes), and Washington should put this one away with a late score. Pick: Washington
St. Louis -1 Carolina Let’s call this the Xerox Paper Bowl. Each year, it seems that these teams look great on paper, yet they continue to fall well short of expectations. St. Louis is similar to Coral of RW/RR challenge fame. They look great when the season starts, push around the weaker competition, but as soon as things start to count, the balloon(s) pops and they fade away. (Coral’s dreaded ankle “injury” in the challenge final will haunt her forever). St. Louis is non different this year with virtually the same roster as in years past. Carolina’s defense remains impressive, and they should have enough offensive talent to score some points—the problem is Delhomme has a way of neutralizing that talent. Somehow, Delhomme has found a way to remain a starting NFL QB based solely on a 3 game playoff run years ago. Kudos to him. This game might come down to who can make the critical stop, and our money is on the better defense. Pick: Carolina
VEGAS TIP OF THE WEEK: Vegas typically gives the home team three points by default. As an example, Washington is home this week and favored by three points. Vegas believes that if this game were played at a neutral site, there would not be a favorite (EVEN line).
Unfortunately, Week 1 did not bring too many discrepancies between Fatty and the Golden Boy. What can we say…It’s Week 1, and we are scared. Don’t worry, things will loosen up. On Monday, we will recap our 14-0 start and provide our thoughts on SF/ARI and CIN/BALT. Remember, nothing makes a weekend more enjoyable than a little 3-team parlay.
--Golden Boy and Fatty at FleaFanatics
