Week 1: Matchup Breakdown
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If you have the pleasure of knowing me or being in any sporting activity with me, fantasy or otherwise, you would know that I like to talk trash. You would also know that I barely, if ever, back it up. You see, the trash talking itself is a game to me and I normally come out on top; that’s what happens when your little brother—4 years your junior—starts beating you at sports when he is 9. While he’s taking you to the rack in basketball or straight-arming you to the ground in football, your only hope is to break him down verbally. In fact, maybe that’s why I love fantasy sports—it removes the whole physical part of sports (unless, of course, you are like the Fleafounder, who sweats profusely while running to the waiver wire each week). Needless to say, I was pleasantly surprised this weekend, as my picks for Week 1 Matchups were dead on. Now that I’ve done a good job, I’m not sure quite what to do. Can someone get Chad Johnson on the line? I need some creative ideas.
Anyways, to hold me honest to my predictions (and to prove I am a knowledgeable fantasizer), I will be going over each pick to see how it panned out. The thing to remember is that the players are being judged based on expectations. So, the Ravens D did not have a terrible day, but did well below what fantasy owners were expecting, even with a TD. In the same breath, most fantasy owners of Eric Johnson would have taken 8 receptions for 57 yards before the game. A Win is when I predicted correctly, a Loss is if I didn’t, and a Draw is if something like an injury gets in the way.
In case you don’t believe me, here is a link to last week’s column
Exploit:
The following matchups were of players outside the Fleaflicker top-10 fantasy producers at a given position whose Week 1 matchup I thought would lead to big-time fantasy production:
QB:
Ben Roethlisberger, PIT @ CLE
12/23 for 161 yards, 4TDs
Comments: Big Ben returned to form as predicted. Cleveland is bad.
Verdict: Win
Alex Smith, ARI @ SF
9/19 for 66 yards, 0 TD, 0 INT (as of 9:00 left in 4th quarter)
Comments: Atrocious. Thankfully I am going against a guy who has Vernon Davis and only needs 3 points. Safe so far.
Verdict: Loss
Steve McNair, BAL @ CIN
20/34 for 203 yards, 0 TD, 1 INT
Commentary: How is McNair still alive?
Verdict: Loss
RB:
Travis Henry, DEN @ BUF
23 carries for 139 yards, 3 receptions for 44 yards
Comments: I feel a little cheap on this, but I’ll take it. Henry did everything but get into the end zone. The Bills rush D looks terrible…again.
Verdict: Win
LaMont Jordan, DET @ OAK
15 carries for 70 yards, 1 TD, 9 receptions for 89 yards
Comments: One of two bright spots for the Raiders (until today when they signed JaMarcus Russell). Jordan is in for a large first half of the season and is once again being used as he should—in the passing game.
Verdicts: Win
Carnell Williams, TB @ SEA
12 carries for 60 yards, 2 receptions for 14 yards
Comments: Cadillac was on his way to a nice game when he got injured. You can’t really count it as a loss when the guy averages 5.0 yards per carry before getting injured. So…
Verdict: Draw
WR:
Darrell Jackson, ARI @ SF
2 for 14 yards
Comments: The 49ers/Cardinals game was so good, I didn’t stay up to watch the end.
Verdict: Loss
Santonio Holmes, PIT @ CLE
2 for 55 yards, 1TD
Comments: I remember someone saying something in this space about the Browns being susceptible to the long ball. Oh wait, that was me…
Verdict: Win
Ronald Curry, DET @ OAK
10 receptions for 133 yards, 1 TD
Comments: The Raiders drive me crazy, but they sure are making me look good this week.
Verdict: Win
TE:
Eric Johnson, NO @ IND 8 for 57 yards
Comments: This is a close one, as the 57 yards is good for a tight end but not excellent. Since I had Chris Cooley—he of 1 catch and 10 yards—I will give myself the benefit of the doubt.
Verdict: Win
Heath Miller, PIT @ CLE
4 for 35 yards, 1 TD
Comments: The Steelers are making me look good, too. Does the Browns D qualify as a offensive fantasy player?
Verdict: Win
Visanthe Shiancoe, ATL @ MIN
2 for 18 yards
Comments: My deep sleeper failed me. In all honesty, I just like saying Visanthe Shiancoe.
Verdict: Loss
K:
Jeff Reed, PIT @ CLE
2/2 FG, 4/4XP, 10 PTS
Comments: Browns D All-Star.
Verdict: Win
Jason Hanson, DET @ OAK
3/3 FG, 3/3 XP, 2 40+FG, 14 PTS
Comments: Why is this guy only owned in 50% of Fleaflicker leagues? I am telling you, as an expert at kickers, please pick this guy up. His offense is all passing, which is great, until you can’t spread the field in the red zone. When you can’t do that, you kick field goals. Enter Jason Hanson. Pick him up, now, unless you have Wilkins or Viniateri.
Verdict: Win
Josh Scobee, TEN @ JAX
1/1FG. 1/1XP
Comments: Only kickers would slip down in warm-ups and hurt themselves. I didn’t get a chance to watch the game, so I’m not sure if they only had him in for short attempts, or if this was a bad call. We’ll go with bad call.
Verdict: Loss
DEF:
Vikings @ ATL
3 points against, 6 sacks, 1 forced fumble, 2 INTs, 2 TDs
Comments: The Vikings D is filthy, I repeat the Vikings D is filthy. Yes, the Falcons made them look very good, but when you can shut down the opposing team’s running game, you have a decided advantage.
Verdict: Win
Houston vs. KC
3 points against, 3 sacks, 3 forced fumbles, 2 recovered fumbles, 2 INTs, 1TD
Comments: Someone once said that the Houston D showed “flashes of brilliance” last year and “was a defense on the rise.” Oh wait, that was me again.
Verdict: Win
Lions @ OAK
21 points against, 3 sacks, 5 forced fumbles, 1 fumble recovery, 2 INTs
Comments: This one depends on your scoring system, but they should have at least gotten you 10 points.
Verdict: Win
Handle with Care:
The following matchups were of players inside the Fleaflicker top-10 fantasy producers at a given position whose Week 1 matchup I thought would lead to a decrease in fantasy production.
QB:
Jon Kitna, DET @ OAK
27/36 for 289, 3TD, 2INT, 3 carries for 17 yards
Comments: The Raiders D is either very overrated or the Lions passing game is going to be sick. I’ll go with a little bit of both, but, as a Raiders fan, this was a double loss for me.
Verdict: Loss
Vince Young, TEN @ JAX
11/18 for 78 yards, 0TD, 1INT, 11 carries for 22 yards, 1TD
Comments: No need to worry Vince Young owners, he does this every game against the jaguars. His rushing touchdown was not enough to offset a bad completion percentage, low yardage, poor running, and a pick.
Verdict: Win
Philip Rivers, CHI @ SD
22/31 for 190 yards, 0TD, 1INT
Comments: Since when did Rivers decide he would make any risky throws, as he did on his pick. Ew. Thankfully for Rivers, Grossman stole the show with a putrid performance. Ew Ew.
Verdict: Win
RB:
Rudi Johnson, BAL @ CIN
18 carries for 50 yards, 3 receptions for 26 yards
Comments: This one wasn’t a tough pick, so I won’t stroke my ego anymore.
Verdict: Win
WR:
Chad Johnson, BAL @ CIN
5 receptions for 95 yards, 1 TD
Comments: Chad proved me wrong, although the most hyped celebration ever was pretty weak.
Verdict: Loss
Roy Williams, DET @ OAK
4 for 20 yards, 1TD
Comments: This one is a bit misleading because of the TD, but if you had Roy Williams and I gave you 8 fantasy points or the game, you would certainly take the game. Nnamdi Asomugha is a east.
Verdict: Win
Lee Evans, DEN @ BUF
2 for 5 yards
Comments: If the Raiders signed Champ Bailey, would any receiver ever get more than 20 yards in a game? What if the Broncos signed Nnamdi Asomugha, who is a free agent after this year, would any receiver…please, God, don’t let it happen.
Verdict: Win
TE:
Antonio Gates, CHI @ SD
9 for 107, 1TD
Comments: How does he get so open EVERY week? Unreal.
Verdict: Loss
K:
Jason Elam, DEN @ BUF
3/5FG, 2 40+ FG, 11 PTS
Comments: In my defense, 3/5 is a terrible kicking day. That is my only defense.
Verdict: Loss
DEF:
Ravens @ CIN
27 points against, 1 sack, 2 forced and recovered fumbles, 0 INT, 1 TD (special teams)
Commentary: If it weren’t for the punt return, this would be a terrible day. That said, for a top-2 D, this is way below expectations.
Verdict: Win
Bears @ SD
14 points against, 3 sacks, 2 forced fumbles, 1 fumble recovery, 1 INT
Commentary: This one is close, but once again, top-2 Ds cannot be held at or below 10 points.
Verdict: Win
Carolina @ STL
13 points against, 1 sack, 2 fumbles and recoveries, 0 INT
Commentary: I was pretty money on the Ds this week, Carolina is very overrated.
Verdict: Win
Season Record: 20-9-1 QB: 3-3 RB: 3-0-1 WR: 4-2 TE: 2-2 K: 2-2 DEF: 6-0
If you disagree with one of my Win, Loss, or Draw judgments, let me know. Now that you trust me and the FleaFanatic team, stay tuned this week for Week 2 Matchups and see if I can continue my luck as well as myundefeated run on defenses. (Note: I have been informed that Pro Football Weekly, a great fantasy football resource, has a similar matchups feature in which they mention exploitation, so I will try to think of a name that is a bit more creative.) As always, thanks for reading,
--Toby Guevin at FleaFanatics
