Week 1: Fantasy Matchups
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Exploit: The following matchups are of players outside the Fleaflicker top-10 fantasy producers at a given position whose Week 1 matchup might lead to big-time fantasy production:
QB:
Ben Roethlisberger, PIT @ CLE This should start a trend of Browns opponents showing up in this column. Big Ben is primed for a big season under Coach Tomlin, who runs a pass-oriented attack, and there is no better team to start a season against. As you’ll see, I like most of the Steelers’ offense in this game. One thing that I think will play a huge role in the game is the Steelers’ ability to cause turnovers and play with a short field, leading to a lot of points.
Alex Smith, ARI @ SF Smith starts out with all his new weapons in tact, which might be the only time we’ll say that this year, since DJax may only last until week 2. That said, this is the perfect environment for Smith to thrive in his first game of the season—at home, against a poor pass D with a poor pass rush, and a healthy cast on offense.
Steve McNair, BAL @ CIN Cincinnati’s defense couldn’t do much of anything this past year and they followed it up by only making minor changes on the defensive side of the ball. Marvin Lewis may go with some inexperienced corners to begin the season, so look for McNair to profit from their educations and take them to school.
RB:
Travis Henry, DEN @ BUF It seems so long ago that Henry was the featured back in Buffalo, but I’m sure he still has hard feelings for the way his relationship with the Bills ended. With Buffalo’s terrible run D revenge should be sweet.
LaMont Jordan, DET @ OAK Jordan had a very rough season last year, but if the preseason is any indicator he may have a little left in the tank. While preseason performance is a sketchy barometer for success, it really is the only thing we have to go on since the Raiders are implementing a new zone-blocking scheme and have a completely revamped O-line. In the preseason Jordan averaged 4.5 yards/carry and scored two touchdowns, despite carrying the ball only 28 times. Detroit has looked terrible on D forever, so the Raiders’ new running game should come smoking out of the gate.
Carnell Williams, TB @ SEA With the loss of Marcus Tubbs for the season, the Seahawks just became every running back’s favorite team. Last season with Tubbs in the lineup the Seahawks limited opponents to 82 yards/game, but without him they were terrible, giving up 147 yards/game on the ground in the team’s final 11 games. Cadillac is ready to break out with a soft easy schedule and he should benefit greatly from Tubbs’ absence.
WR:
Darrell Jackson, ARI @ SF When he is in the lineup, DJax is one of the best fantasy wideouts in the game; but, instead, he is often the bane of every fantasy manager’s existence as every week he seems to be a last-minute decision. He comes into this season as healthy as can be expected and should come out of the gates on fire with a soft Arizona pass D. When he plays this year, expect DJax to produce.
Santonio Holmes, PIT @ CLE Hines Ward could just as easily be the pick here, but something tells me that Holmes is in for a long TD reception this week. Look for the Browns to struggle against the run early, forcing them to bring eight men into the box and leaving them susceptible to the longball as the game wears on.
Ronald Curry, DET @ OAK This is a scary pick, since anything having to do with Oakland and the passing game doesn’t appear to come easy (note the fact that we still do not know who will be throwing the ball to Curry on Sunday). However, the only thing that is more difficult than finding aerial offense on the Raiders is finding defensive competence on the Lions. Curry has always been sure-handed, athletic (he played point guard at UNC), and cerebral, which matches up perfectly against the inept, slow, and not-cerebral (to put it nicely) Detroit pass defense. I see a solid game of 7 receptions, 80+ yards, and a touchdown for Curry this weekend.
TE:
Eric Johnson, NO @ IND Indianapolis had a solid pass D last year, but it is a bit misleading since their run D gave up 173 yards/game on the ground, thereby making anything but a handoff a questionable call. Drew Brees has always loved going to his TE and he finally has a competent one in New Orleans. I don’t think Johnson will be that stellar throughout the course of the season, but I do seem him notching a solid 7 or 8 fantasy point game against the Colts.
Heath Miller, PIT @ CLE Sure hands in the red zone should produce a score this week. For more information, see Roethlisberger, Ben and Holmes, Santonio.
Visanthe Shiancoe, ATL @ MIN This one is kind of the deep sleeper of the week, but I see Shiancoe being the fall back option for Tarvaris Jackson in his opening game. Look for this low-scoring affair to feature plenty of running, field goals, and tight end play, which bodes well for the new Viking. Anyone who has read my work so far (I really mean any “one”) knows that I am high on Jackson, but he will need time to get comfortable with his reads and Shiancoe should benefit as his safety blanket.
K:
Jeff Reed, PIT @ CLE Why don’t we just throw the whole team up here? Lots of offensive production = lots of extra points and field goals.
Jason Hanson, DET @ OAK I cannot believe that Hanson is owned in less than 50 percent of Fleaflicker leagues (47 percent). The guy is as consistent as can be and he hits long-range field goals at a pace only matched by a few other kickers in the game. He is going against a tough Oakland D that will keep the passing attack of the Lions out of the end zone but not out of field goal range. Look for him to have a big week with 3 field goals.
Josh Scobee, TEN @ JAX Scobee is a very inconsistent kicker, but I think he will benefit from David Garrard being named the starting QB in Jacksonville. Garrard’s mobility keeps the Jags’ offense from becoming too stagnant, but his lack of top-notch passing skills might keep the team from being too effective in the red zone. Look for the Jags to rack up the yards against Tennessee but not put up too many points, which means field goals should abound.
DEF:
Vikings @ ATL I really like the Vikings defense this year and I really really like the Vikings defense against the Falcons. The VkingsD’s specialty is the run and the Falcons offensive strength is the run, and defenses normally win these battles. Look for Harrington to have to throw a lot, meaning a few sacks and at least two picks for the Vikings D.
Houston vs. KC The Texans D showed flashes of brilliance last year and I see them as a defense on the rise. While that rise will take them from the bottom of the pack to the middle, they should take advantage of the QB situation in KC by stacking the box and forcing Damon Huard to throw the ball. When your best QB-WR combination is Huard to Kennison, your pass game is in trouble. Look for multiple sacks and a few picks from the developing Texans D.
Lions @ OAK I hate to do this one, but every defense last year was a good defense against the Raiders. While I believe things have changed for the better in Oakland, whoever mans the QB position is bound to throw at least one pick and there should be at least a few sack opportunities. I hope this pick ends up being terrible, since it means my Raiders are on the right track. The Lions D should only be used, however, if you are in the deepest of deep leagues or if you dislike the Raiders enough.
Handle with Care: The following matchups are of players inside the Fleaflicker top-10 fantasy producers at a given position whose Week 1 matchup might lead to a decrease in fantasy production.
QB:
Jon Kitna, DET @ OAK Kitna opens up the season against the best pass D from last year—my beloved Raiders. The Raiders are a young group brimming with confidence that should improve this year. They are one of the few teams that matches up well with the Lions and their many offensive weapons. Look for Kitna to get decent yardage, but register no TDs and throw a couple of picks.
Vince Young, TEN @ JAX This pick is all based on last year’s performance. In two games against the Jags last year, Young averaged less than 5 fantasy points/game in most formats.
Philip Rivers, CHI @ SD I think that Rivers will put up similar numbers to last year this season, but won’t develop into a great quarterback quite yet. I see him putting up similar numbers to last year’s early-season matchup with the Ravens in Week 1 against the Bears. Predicted line: 150 yards, 1 TD, and 1 INT. Besides, the Chargers’ game plan should be simple—give the ball to LT.
RB:
Rudi Johnson, BAL @ CIN Most RBs this week have favorable matchups, except for Mr. Consistent. Rudi actually plays quite well against the Ravens usually, but I see Baltimore scoring early and forcing the Bengals offense to go to the air.
WR:
Chad Johnson, BAL @ CIN Last year Johnson failed to catch a TD against the Ravens in two games and Chris McCallister’s ability should not be underrated. This week, TJ Houshmandzadeh will get the bulk of the catches and yardage while Johnson starts the season slowly, much like last year.
Roy Williams, DET @ OAK Another tough matchup for a wideout, Williams has to go head-to-head with Nnamdi Asomugha, Oakland’s shutdown corner who began getting some props around the league last year. After finishing last year with 8 picks, Asomugha will make Kitna pay if he tries to force balls in to his favorite receiver.
Lee Evans, DEN @ BUF While Evans is ranked number 11 in Fleaflicker’s preseason rankings, he is a prime candidate for a slow beginning to the season. Denver’s acquisition of Dre’ Bly was overrated, but Champ Bailey is the top cornerback in the league and should shut Evans down in Week 1.
TE:
Antonio Gates, CHI @ SD Chicago has the athletic linebackers and depth in the secondary to contend with Gates and limit his chances. With Tommie Harris at less than 100 percent, I see the Chargers rushing the ball for most of the game and taking advantage of the Bears’ potential weakness on the interior.
K:
Jason Elam, DEN @ BUF Elam is a very overrated kicker. It is incredible that Mike Nugent of the Jets is owned in only 13 percent of leagues and Elam is owned in 82 percent. This is an absolute atrocity. I don’t like him in life and I don’t like him this week.
DEF:
Ravens @ CIN One of the few teams that has the firepower to score points against the Ravens, Cincinnati should get a fair amount of yardage this week and put up 20+ points. While the RavensD did not play terribly against the Bengals last year, they did not reach their season average for fantasy points in either contest.
Bears @ SD The BearsD matches up well against many teams, but I think the Chargers will be able to run on the Bears and limit their ability to get to the quarterback and create turnovers. Consequently, this is not the best weekend to have the BearsD, especially if you went out on a limb and drafted them early.
Carolina @ STL Carolina is a defense still living on its past glory. Julius Peppers is a beast and the player everyone talks about, but they failed to make a strong fantasy impression last year. Meanwhile, St. Louis is on the rise offensively with Steven Jackson crushing skulls and offensive weapons at every position for Marc Bulger. The Panthers will match up well against division foes like Atlanta and Tampa Bay, but don’t use them this week.
As always, thanks for reading,
--Toby Guevin at FleaFanatics
