Week 12 Mailbag, Part 3
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We have gotten such a good response this week that your questions are requiring a third mailbag. This is certainly a first. Enjoy!
New reader and mailbagger Sam writes in:
@ RB position Jamal Lewis vs Houston FWP vs Miami or do I start McGahee vs SD K Smith vs Oakland
Flex position (different team):
Fargas vs KC C. Taylor vs NYG DJ Hackett vs STL
WR position: I know I shouldn't bench S Smith and Plax but they're not doing crap while people on my bench blow up. Would you sit them for any of these guys? Also pick one more to make the trio:
Mason vs SD Moss vs TB Evans vs JAX Marshall vs CHI
(bold are my picks and current line up right now)
Thanks!
' Hey Sam,
Thanks so much for writing in! I'm always glad to hear from new readers and hope the analysis I provide will help you in your decisions. I will also try to post your matchup later in the week, once our other polls have closed, so show you what other readers think.
Here we go...
For your RB matchup, like you, I love Fast Willie Parker against the Dolphins. The Steelers have the #2 rushing offense in the league and the Dolphins are last in the league in rushing defense. While FWP has not played to his potential the last few weeks—including last week against the inept Jets run D—everything points to a turn around this week. First off, the Steelers should be running the ball a lot since they will likely lead in the game and probably by a lot. The game is at home for the Steelers and they should come out with a lot of energy (read: angry) after playing flat last week. All signs point to big things for FWP. There is always the TD issue, but that didn't stop him from becoming an elite runner earlier in the year and in the past.
As far as Lewis is concerned, he does have a decent matchup against the Texans who are ranked 21st against the run. Lewis has been very inconsistent though, relying on two big weeks for most of his fantasy value. In fact, he has only gone over 100 yards once this season (back in week 2). As a result of that inconsistency, I would be hesitant to start Lewis over the other players.
I like Kolby Smith against Oakland. I know it is tough to bench McGahee and Lewis for someone you just picked up off the waiver wire, but the Raiders haven't been able to stop anyone on the ground this year. Moreover, the Chiefs will likely run the ball a lot since they don't have complete faith in Brodie Croyle yet. If you have any hesitancy just think 5.0, because that is how many yards the Raiders defense is giving up per carry.
McGahee also has a solid matchup, but the Chargers have been formidable on occasion, including two weeks ago against the Colts. The limited touches he is getting also concern me a bit, since he has hovered at or below 20 touches the past four weeks. As a result, if his TD string ends, it may mean a low points total.
So, in summary, I would go with Smith and FWP.
For the flex position you bring up, I like your choice of Fargas. The Chiefs are weaker against the run than the pass and the Raiders have shown a commitment each week to the run. If the Raiders do any damage, it will be on the ground. He also has gotten between 25 and 28 touches the past three weeks, meaning you know what you will get out of him and that he will have chances.
The WR dilemma you have is a great one to have because all three WRs have terrific matchups (Evans, Plax, and Smith). I actually like all three to have big games (if Smith plays). If I were you I would stick with what you have. Evans would actually be my top choice of the three, as he is going up against a pass defense that has given up 200 or more yards through the air for 8 straight weeks! This includes shelackings by NO (435 passing yards), SD (309), and Houston (329) in the last six weeks. They are also susceptible to the big play, which is Evans' specialty.
The problems I see with the others is as follows:
Derek Mason - inconsistent quarterbacking and a mediocre season at best so far.
Santana Moss - tough matchup against the 4th-ranked pass defense that has shut down most opponents this year. He also has shown no consistency, so you might want to wait until he puts together back-to-back solid games before going with him.
Brandon Marshall - consistent, but lacks the high ceiling of the other players with no multi-TD or 100-yard receiving games thus far in 2007.
So, after a lot of analysis, the only thing I would change would be starting Smith over Lewis. Go with Fargas at flex. I would rank your WRs: Evans, Plax, Smith, Marshall, Moss, Mason. Hopefully this has given you a bit more peace of mind heading into the week.
Best of luck tomorrow, Sunday, and Monday, and have a Happy Thanksgiving!
- Shimmering T. at www.fleafanatics.com
