Week 11: What are the Odds?
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Well kids, we learned a lot last week and just like Kindergarten it is time to share. We learned that Dallas is without a doubt the best team in the NFC; see Tony Romo and Terrell Owens. We learned that Philadelphia, Chicago and Arizona are not quite ready to throw in the towel; see Brian Westbrook, Bernard Berrian and Larry Fitzgerald. We also learned that Cleveland and Tennessee are not quite ready to separate themselves from the other AFC wildcard hopefuls; see Derek Anderson and Vince Young. Most importantly, Fatty and the Golden Boy were smacked with a dose of reality, as they went under .500 for the first time in a long time. You know what that means, superstitiously time to change up the format.
This week, Fatty and Golden Boy exchanged thoughts about each game before settling on their picks. While at times, the conversations may have gone off topic, if you look closely, there is some money making analysis there. On to the games…
WEEK 11 (as always, home teams are captialized) GREEN BAY 10 Carolina
Fatty: After a “couple games” of not believing, I am not only a passenger on the Packers Band Wagon, but I’m driving the train. Choo Choo! “All aboard!” GB: Nine games in, Green Bay has only one loss, and now you are a believer. This just in-- I am finally a believer in the Pats as well. Fatty: That’s a good decision, rumor has it the Patriots are pretty good; but we digress. Favre and the Packers Defense has Green Bay partying like its 1996, and I don’t see any reason why David “Metro” Carr or Vinny “The Crook” Testaverde will change that. I am going out on a limb and saying Carolina scores less than 10 points. GB: I wouldn’t go out on any limb weighing 250 lbs big boy. Oddly enough though, I can't disagree with you. I can't wait to see what gloves Euro Carr brings to protect his delicate hands at cold Lambeau. PICK: Pack CINCINNATI 3 Arizona GB: Aside from the Week 9 Pats/Colts game, can you think of another matchup with more hyped fantasy players? Fatty: Absolutely not, this will be a fantasy whore’s delight. Fantasy league playoff spots will be won or lost depending on the performance of the players in this game; unfortunately there is zero NFL playoff implications. As for the game, the Bengals get Rudi Johnson back at full strength this week, and this should put them over the edge. GB: Over the "Edge?!" That's clever, you think of that all by yourself, or do I need to footnote to a more talented writer? Simply put, I like Palmer over Warner, the AFC over the NFC, and the crappy home team v. crappy away team. All signs point to Cincy. Fatty: No, that kind of genius can only come from talent like me. I agree with your analysis, it’s amazing you’re not on ESPN yet. PICK: BENGALS and take the over unless Vegas has it at 70 or above. Cleveland 3 BALTIMORE Fatty: The Browns loss last week was HUGE… Maybe not so much on standings, but more on the players’ psyches. They had the Steelers on the ropes and to quote “Mr. Coors Light” Denny Green, “They let them off the hook”. GB: While that's true, the Ravens are turning back to Kyle Boller this week to right the ship (Seriously?!?), and “he is who we think he is”. Despite the loss last week, Cleveland showed the ability to score on a good defense, and they should be able to put points on the board again. Fatty: Your right, you sold me on Cleveland when I read the words “Kyle Boller.” I just want to make sure that I am on the record that I believe there is strong chance the Browns might end up in the toilet this season (get it? I am genius). Anderson needs to get his mojo back this week because during the second half of the Pitt game he looked as scared as a bed wetter at his first sleep over. GB: Sold on Cleveland, but they may end up the toilet? You too seem as scared as the bedwetter to make this decision. PICK: Browns
DALLAS 10.5 Washington GB: After watching last week, I am forced to admit that Dallas is better than the Giants at every facet of the game. Fatty: Unlike yourself, I didn’t need last week to know that Dallas is better than the Giants. But what I did learn is that Washington is softer than I thought; and yes we are talking puppy poop soft. Playing at home, against a lesser division team, there is NO WAY you can lose that game. Washington has the weapons to keep this game under the spread, but how do you trust a team like that? GB: You can't. Portis wont have 140 like he did last week, and that Dallas D line may knock the soup out of Campbell Fatty: “The Soup out of Campbell?!?”… that was awful. Listen, not everyone can be as witty as me, it’s not your fault. Alright, I’ll ride the ‘Boys this week (see what I mean) PICK: Dallas.
INDIANAPOLIS 14.5 Kansas City Fatty: Coming off a devastating loss to the Patriots, Peyton Manning threw six picks, “the greatest clutch kicker ever” missed a game winning chip shot, and Dwight Freeney hurt himself and is out for the season; yet there is no chance that Indy losses again this year and doesn’t put up 40 this week. GB: Didn’t you also say that the Colts would be angry following their loss to the Pats, and the Chargers would take the brunt of that anger. Without Harrison and Clark, I can't see this offense putting up 40. Still, KC isn’t good, and the Colts will need a lot less than 40 to win this one. Fatty: I did say that, but I failed to consider is how angry San Diego would be after All Day Peterson embarrassed them with the NFL record breaking 296 yards. I think Harrison comes back this week for Indy, but I am not as sure about Clark, and to be honest, Clark might be more important to Manning than Harrison right now. Either way, KC showed what they are capable of last year against Indianapolis in the playoffs… nothing. They didn’t get a first down till the 2nd half, and nothing has changed there. GB: Well, at least we now have a glimpse of what Larry Johnson would look like if he had another seasons of 300+ carries...Priest Holmes. PICK: Colts JACKSONVILLE 3 San Diego GB: Speaking of San Diego, can Norv Turner really be this bad? I would actually pay to see Norv Turner and Michael Turner switch roles, because I doubt Norv can be as bad a running back, as he is a coach. Fatty: I would agree with that, because let’s not forget, Norv was an NFL player before he was a coach. Maybe that is his problem? He coaches like he has had too many collisions to the head. GB: I know Jacksonville's offense is not very good, but their defense is too good to let a pouty LDT have a huge day. That means a long day for Norv and Joan Rivers. Oh, and how about a little kudos for my boy Freddy hitting 10k last week? Fatty: Congrats to Fred Taylor and his groin for making it to the 10,000 yard plateau. There are not many backs that have made it there, and even less with brittle bone disease. I expect big things from Mojo and Freddy’s Groin this week. PICK: Jags PHILADELPHIA 10 Miami Fatty: To borrow a rant from my buddy Ambro, if you are playing the Eagles shouldn’t you just put three guys on Brian Westbrook at all times? Literally have three guys run with him wherever he goes and never take their eyes of him. He is the only player on that offense that can do anything. If you stop Westbrook, you stop the Eagles. Isn’t it that simple? GB: As a Giants' fan, it pains me to say this...but somehow Westbrook is underrated. In my opinion, he does the same things as LT, without the recognition. By the way, for the fourth time, the NFL has reinstated...Puff the Magic Dragon, Ricky Williams. Fatty: Yeah I saw that, I don’t think he makes it two months before failing another drug test. The most hilarious thing is that someone picked him up in our fantasy league. You know you’re desperate when you pick up an overweight hippy to be your fantasy running back. Another storyline this week is the beginning of the John Beck era in Miami. Miami liked this kid so much that they passed on Brady Quinn Backup Quarterback in last year’s draft. It is safe to say there is some pressure on this kid. I liked him at BYU, and I think he responds and helps the Dolphins cover. GB: Didn't one or all of the Detmers play at BYU!? I'm not sure the Cougar responds just yet, but the Miami D keeps it close. PICK: Fins
MINNESOTA 5.5 Oakland Fatty: If your star rookie running back tears a ligament in his knee and you are no longer in playoff contention, shouldn’t you come right out say that the star running back will no longer be playing this year? Not that he may be back in action in two weeks. This is not brain surgery, give him the rest of the season off and let him come back 100% in ‘08. GB: I see your point, but if you were forced to rely on “Ms. Jackson if you're nasty” to air it out now that your star running back was hurt, wouldn't you try and confuse the other teams as much as possible, by making them think he "may" play. My bigger concern is: what is Vegas thinking? I am not sure Minnesota should be 5.5 favorites over ANY team with a healthy Peterson let alone without. Fatty: Yeah, I don’t see Minnesota 5.5 points better than the Gophers this week let alone an NFL team. If the over/under in this game is 35 or more, I think you have to jump on the under because this game might set a record for least amount of completed passes since 1945. GB: First you are out on a limb, now you are jumping on things?!? Seriously, you are going to hurt yourself chubs. PICK: Oakland
New England 15.5 BUFFALO GB: Another week, another double digit spread for Belli-cheat to cover. Most importantly, another week where I have to watch Tom "Bareback" Brady put up 30+ for you in our fantasy league. Fatty: Don’t blame me because my Fantasy Quaterback is handsome and talented. Just in case you Patriots' Haters need more ammunition, it looks like Marshawn Lynch will not be playing this week. Things just keep falling the Patriots' way, which happens sometimes when you are better than everyone. Oh and by the way, with the 49ers' demise looking more evident each week, it is important to remind everyone that New England also gets the 49ers’ first round pick next year. Likely a top 5. GB: Who cares if Lynch plays? Regardless of the starting back, the Pats' D will just continue to ‘roid up and get the job done. Fatty: Your jealousy is so sad and petty. It’s ok, one day your Giants might win a playoff game. But until then, why don’t you take a ride on the Patriots bandwagon, there are plenty of seats available and trip is SUPER. PICK: Undefeated Pats
Lions’ Lounge: NY Giants 3 DETROIT
Fatty: Well isn’t this cute, Golden Boy’s Giants take on Chuckie’s Lions this week in a battle of mediocrity… Gentlemen both of your confidence was sky high going into last week, what happened? It seems like reality hit the Giants and Lions like a pile of bricks. Do you have any comments, or should I say excuses, for last week’s performances? GB: Dallas is the best team in the NFC, and they proved it on my turf last week. Giants hung in there for a long time, and they were a Snee holding penalty away from tying the game at 24. Instead, they settled for a FG, their defense had to play tighter to avoid Dallas putting any points on the board, and Owens beat the miserable Giants’ secondary deep. Great teams find a way to win that game at home, and unfortunately for me, the Giants are not ready to be great. By the way, how many picturesque Coughlin faces did we get in the second half of that game? 5? 10? Fatty: Golden Boy you sound like a soccer mom, “our little boys played the big boys hard for so long, but those referees weren’t being nice to our boys.” Sad, really sad. GB: I am not making excuses. It was a hold, the call was correct. I just wanted to point out that we were one play away from things being different. As for being a soccer mom, I am all for it. Sleeping till noon, watching ESPN all day, then going to watch the kids play sports. Plus, have you seen these new mini vans and SUVs these days?!!? Where do I sign? Fatty: And Chuckie, your team wasn’t even playing a .500 team. What is your excuse? Chuckie: Evidently, I downplayed the power of Christ that compelled Kurt Warner and the Cards last weekend. That coupled with a hostile Arizona crowd and the Lions' coordinators a) refusing to double cover Larry Fitz near the goal line and b) calling 8 rushing plays for a MINUS 18 yards, led to a hard-fought hard-luck loss for the Lions. Fatty: “Hard Luck,” is that a new phrase for crappy, devastating or demoralizing. But, yes you clearly did not weigh the power of God correctly; Warner has been playing that Christ card for a lot longer than Kitna. He is a veteran of using God to his advantage… I’m sure both of you are looking forward to forgetting the past, so let’s talk about this week. Predictions, guarantees, analysis, anything? GB: Well I can guarantee we shut down Roy Williams, mostly because I just traded for him in my fantasy league and things just seem to work out that way for me. I expect a close game between two average teams. I was shocked at the line...zero respect for the Lions being 3 point dogs at home. In the end, the Giants will prevail, because they just have to. My Knick season is already over. Chuckie: Here's why the Lions will win this week: it's all about being offensive. Who has the edge at QB? Kitna out-QB rates Eli by 14 points. RB? Martz refuses to run the ball so this category is moot. WR? Please, Plax is a poor man's Charlie Rogers, and that guy couldn't even crack the Lions’ receiving corps. Plus, the Lions are undefeated at home this season, while the Giants are 1-3 away from Jets Stadium. And, I will look better than the Golden Boy in a tux at your wedding, which is good for at least a field goal. PICK: Lions to win outright. Fatty: Unfortunately, just because Martz refuses to run the ball does not make the category moot, but I do think that the Lions will contain Jacobs this week. Also, I do agree that Kitna is much better than Elisha. Kitna is working with God, and Eli is dealing with the devil every time he puts a roofie into the girls’ drinks at his post game parties. I do think that Plax could fit in with the Lions, he is just overrated enough. The deciding factor for this matchup is this… as is stands right now Chuckie is coming dateless to my wedding while the Golden Boy will be dragging the Ball and Chain, and that’s one more mouth I need to feed. Pick: Lions to cover and Chuckie to hook up with the best looking bridesmaid.
HOUSTON 1 New Orleans GB: New Orleans and San Diego may go down as the two most frustrating teams to gamble on in the history of the NFL. Part of me thinks Rivers and Brees have been throwing some of these games to put a little extra cash in their pockets. Fatty: Definitely Brees. He is good enough to pull of that kind of heist and plus you can’t ever trust a guy with a mole the size of a golf ball on his face. It should be noted that this game matches the two number one picks from last year’s draft: Reggie Bush and Mario Williams. Do you think Texans and their fans regret passing on Bush more or less now than they did a year ago? GB: I would have to think the regret has subsided a bit. The Bush hype was at its highest on draft day. He hasn’t really dominated in the NFL like some expected. That being said, I haven't heard Williams' name mentioned all year. Fatty: Williams and the Houston defense started out fast, but have faded shortly after, just like Houston playoff hopes this season. It’s amazing that Vegas has Houston as a favorite even though the Saints have made a mini-run as of late. But like Vegas, I think this is a classic example of a below average AFC team being better than an average NFC team. PICK: Texans
SEATTLE 6 Chicago GB: One Grossman to Berrian bomb later, and Sexy Rexy is back in charge of the Chicago offense. Gotta love it. Fatty: Having Rexy back in the mix makes everyone’s lives more exciting. You know what else is exciting, when the entire ESPN Countdown crew challenges the manhood of Shaun Alexander. It was phenomenal last week when the crew said that ever since Alexander got his contract, he has become soft and a non-factor. Emmitt Smith actually said that when defenders hit Shaun Alexander, is it like hitting Charmin Toilet Paper, and I think he is right. Mike “don’t call me the Walrus” Holmgren agrees too, which is why we are seeing heavy doses of Matt Hasselback and Maurice Morris. GB: Speaking of running backs, Benson has been one of the biggest busts of the year. Without any kind of consistent running game, the Bears will be forced to rely on Rexy in one of the loudest NFL stadiums. If your fantasy team needs a lift, Seattle’s D might be worth giving up a first round pick next year just for this week’s potential points alone. Fatty: The entire Chicago team is a bust. This team went to the Super Bowl last year and won’t make the playoffs this season. They say they train their kids in Seattle to be loud at an early age so they will make better Seahawks’ fans. I love the idea, but it must be hell on the moms and school teachers. PICK: Seahawks
Pittsburgh 9 NY JETS Fatty: This Pittsburgh offense may be the best built unit to play a playoff game in the expected poor playoff conditions. They are physical up front, and Big Ben brings just enough to the table to score against any defense. Right now, however, they are giving up way too many points on defense. That should change this week. GB: Haha, you said "unit," and “best-built one” at that. You think the Pitt D will improve against the Jets this week?! Really?! This is your thought provoking analysis. Well, let me add to the obvious...Willie Parker will rush for over 100 yards against the Jets' D. Fatty: I’m sorry my Madden-esque analysis is not up to your standards. Let me blow your mind with this nugget of information: the Jets stink and Mangini will be selling Flobees on infomercials in two years. He is not only a spokesperson but he is also a client. Erik, I hope you enjoyed your 15 minutes of fame. Karma came back around to bite you; back stabbing your former employer does not go over well in this league. GB: Now, who's being sad and petty?? PICK: Pittsburgh
St. Louis 3 SAN FRANCISCO GB: Word out of San Fran is that Alex Smith claims to be too hurt/practice to play this week, despite the fact that Coach Nolan said Smith was 100% healthy. Don't worry Alex, I don't blame you. I'd pretend to be hurt too if I had your O-Line and jumpy feet.
Fatty: He was the NUMBER 1 PICK IN THE DRAFT two years ago, now he can’t complete a pass because his foot work is awful and he has been hit so many times he is scared for his life. Sound familiar. Yes David Carr probably has Alex Smith on speed dial so that he can console him after every 49ers' loss. Did I mention that the Patriots have the 49ers first round pick next year? GB: Maybe all Alex needs is a pair of Carr's white gloves. Unfortunately for the Rams, they were not healthy for the first half of this season. They probably could have run away with this pathetic division. Unfortunately for the Niners, the Rams are healthy now. Did I mention that I have been CARRYING this column? And that is tough to do given your weight. Fatty: Well, you should used carrying a lot of weight, you have been carrying the lie that you like women for all these years, when everyone knows, your girlfriend included, that you enjoy the company of men instead. And let’s not carried away with the Rams, it’s not like they have run off four straight, they are a pathetic 1-8. In fact, they may be the first 1-8 team ever to be a favorite on the road. But the 49ers are so bad right now, there is no way I could advise someone to bet on them. PICK: Rams. Tampa Bay 3 ATLANTA Fatty: Tampa Bay is in first place, they are going to make the playoffs and I am not even sure I can name three players on their offense. Jeff Garcia, Joey Galloway… nope I don’t have a third. Remember when “parity” in the NFL was great, but in the NFC south the so-called parity should be referred to as a lot of crappy teams in one division. GB: Don’t lie to our twelve readers. We all know you had a claim in for Ernest Graham. Yes, the South is very bad. I mean Harrington led the Falcons to a win last week, meaning basically all four teams still have a shot at the division. These four NFC South teams should be allowed to form one collective team come playoff time. Fatty: NFC South All-Stars wouldn’t be a bad team and would make a solid run during the playoffs, but I would still favorite the Pats by a touchdown in the Super Bowl. I actually don’t hate Josephine Harrington’s chances this week playing at home. Tampa’s offensive doesn’t scare me. I think it will be close. GB: Of course you would favor the Pats. Even Chuck Norris wouldn’t mess with the Pats right now. In a division game between two below average teams, I like the home team here. PICK: Dirty Birds
DENVER 2 Tennessee
GB: Yes, Vince Young usually finds a way to win football games. However, when the Titans get behind, they are a completely different team, and at times it is painful to watch VY throw the ball. Fatty: Vince Young might not be Joe Montana throwing the football, but what is Vegas thinking with this line? Denver as a FAVORITE? This Titans’ team is going to make it to the second round of the playoffs this year, and they should not be a dog to a below average Denver team. Plus what does Vince Young do? That’s right, WIN FOOTBALL GAMES! Especially on Prime Time. GB: Settle down, Young lost to Quincy Gray last week. But on prime time, against the mediocre Broncos, yes, Young does win football games. Fatty: Point is, I wouldn’t bet against Vince Young playing on ESPN. PICK: VY and the Titans
Well readers, if you made it through all that, kudos to you. Happy betting!
- Golden Boy and Fatty at www.fleafanatics.com
