VWI: National League Predicted Standings
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by user Airjakub2
Recently over at my site, Vegas Watch, I started doing a new form of power rankings, the Vegas Watch Index. A more detailed description can be found in my other ArmchairGM articles, but simply put, the Vegas Watch Index (VWI) uses the betting lines of each game to gauge the strength of each team. It then uses that information to predict how a team will perform over the rest of the season.
Here are my current NL power rankings:
Since the Yankees were so far out in front in the AL VWI, I expected the Mets to be leading the NL. This is obviously not the case, as the Padres' are the top team. After the Padres and Mets, however, only the Cubs are expected to do particularly well the rest of the way. (Note that because they've been playing against the superior AL for the last two weeks, the average expected W% here is significantly less than .500. Obviously, the NL will average a .500 winning percentage after interleague ends, so something needs to be done about this, and I will fix this next week.)
Combining these expected winning percentages with the current standings gives us the VWI predicted standings.
Since the winning percentages need to be ajusted because all these teams will be playing NL teams after this week, the W and L totals aren't as meaningful as the GB column. The Mets currently own just a 1.5 game lead on Atlanta, but they are up three in the loss column, which accounts for part of their four game advantage here. But it looks like the East is going to be a battle into September, with the Phillies also hanging in the race.
The Brewers' current lead in the Central is seven. I think the general consensus (looking at both run differential and VWI), is that the Cubs are actually better, so the question becomes whether they can catch Milwaukee before they run out of games. VWI doesn't think so, but I think the Cubs can make up a little more ground than this, and it will end up being an interesting race.
The Padres, the class fo the NL according to VWI, currently have just a 1.5 game lead in their own division. But Arizona is a .500 team (296 RS, 295 RA) that has been playing over their heads, so they don't pose much of a threat. The Dodgers could make it an interesting race down the stretch, but I don't see them outplaying San Diego by two games the rest of the way.
If you have any comments, questions, or suggestions, please e-mail me at jnwheat@emory.edu.
More of my work regarding VWI, Adjusted WPA, an early look at the MVP races and more can be found over at Vegas Watch.
