Using Preseason Stats to Project Regular Season Wins

by Derekcs

People, with good reason, often dismiss preseason as meaningless and a waste of time. Ignoring wins and losses, rushing and passing efficiencies in the preseason (measured by yards per play) has very little correlation with the regular season. If we limited the scope of offensive stats to just the projected starters, however, could we get some meaningful regular season predictions?

To take a look, I ran a linear regression model on regular season win totals in the 1996-2006 seasons, using only yards per play on pass offense, pass defense, rush offense, and rush defense. Then I plugged in preseason efficiency stats to get the projected 2007 regular season win totals. For these stats, I looked at the yard per play averages on NFL.com for what should be the starting QBs and RBs this season and then total defense efficiencies. In the case of injuries or competitions at starting QB/RB, I took an educated guess about which player's stat to use. As for defenses, it was time-prohibitve to go through 100 box scores to pick out first half efficiency or efficiency against starters.

Despite the admitted flaws in the system, the predictions turned out to be mostly reasonable, at least in terms of how it predicts the divisional standings to fall out. They system ranks one team first or second when all reason says they should be lower in each division. The NFC came out with 5 10+-win teams, while the AFC had only 2, which doesn't seem right. Then again, could the balance of power between the conferences be shifting? Detroit comes out with 10.16 projected wins. "You know what's really scary? Kitna was right..." "I know, kids. I'm scared, too."

AFC East

1. New England Patriots, 8.4262 wins
2. New York Jets, 6.6077
3. Buffalo Bills, 4.8474
4. Miami Dolphins, 0.72791

AFC North

1. Pittsburgh Steelers, 13.822 wins
2. Cleveland Browns, 8.3653
3. Baltimore Ravens, 6.0087
4. Cincinnati Bengals, 5.3328

AFC South

1. Jacksonville Jaguars, 11.51 wins
2. Indianapolis Colts, 9.7991
3. Tennessee Titans, 8.7978
4. Houston Texans, 7.1054

AFC West

1. Oakland Raiders, 9.4303 wins
2. San Diego Chargers, 9.2745
3. Denver Broncos, 7.1972
4. Kansas City Chiefs, 3.3213

Seedings

1. Pittsburgh
2. Jacksonville
3. Oakland
4. New England
5. Indianapolis
6. San Diego

NFC East

1. Philadelphia Eagles, 12.632 wins
2. Dallas Cowboys, 11.58
3. Washington Redskins, 9.7338
4. New York Giants, 4.0315

NFC North

1. Detroit Lions, 10.16 wins
2. Chicago Bears, 9.4675
3. Minnesota Vikings, 7.881
4. Green Bay Packers, 5.2574

NFC South

1. New Orleans Saints, 14.402 wins
2. Carolina Panthers, 8.8436
3. Atlanta Falcons, 7.3336
4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 3.5238

NFC West

1. Seattle Seahawks, 11.19 wins
2. San Francisco 49ers, 8.1366
3. Arizona Falcons, 7.5798
4. St. Louis Rams, 4.5614

Seedings

1. New Orleans
2. Philadelphia
3. Seattle
4. Detroit
5. Dallas
6. Washington

CheezerAll-Star

818 days ago

Score 0

Does it make sense? I think not.

Conduct a sanity check. Logic dictates that if the results of your theoretical calculations do not jibe with what your intuitive expectations are, there may be some error with the equations. Granted, it's best to not have expectation when conducting theoretical work, but something doesn't add up. For example, Detroit is not the best team in the NFCN. Oakland is not going to win the AFCW.

Hang on to this work. I think it's totally wrong, but it will be interesting to see how well it stacks up at the end of the season.

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ChristofMVP

818 days ago

Score 1

How are the Saints winning 14 games? The Steelers 13? The Raiders (Oakland!) 9? But the Pats 8? Come on now.

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RomiezzoLegend

818 days ago

Score 0

Yeah, exactly. I agree hat the Raiders will improve, but THEY won't have a better record than the Pats. Rodney Harrison isn't THAT much of a factor to go down in winning percentage that much.

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Davis21wylieMVP

818 days ago

Score 4

Beware small sample sizes! BEWARE!!!

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Oh No RomoDraft Pick

818 days ago

Score 0

Detroit will NOT win 10 games. That defense is terrible and what about the running game. Jon Kitna will not survive just throwing the football.

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WizardmanRed-Shirting

818 days ago

Score 0

yup, preseason's a load of crap apparently.

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DerekcsSoccer Kid

818 days ago

Score 2

Clearly, no one expects the Raiders to win the AFC West. Like I said, the system tends to overrate one team in each division. That said, I won't automatically dismiss the entire system and am curious to see how accurate the divisional rankings turn out. As Davis points out astutely, beware small sample sizes.

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Alex HolowczakHall of Famer

817 days ago

Score 0

Absolutely. I don't see why everybody is hounding on the results as they are.

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