US Rugby World Cup Qualifying Attempt
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Rugby Union World Cup 2007
Americas Qualifying - Round 3b
Today, Canada play the United States in St. John's, Canada, in the Rugby World Cup 2007 Qualifying.
The winner will book a place in next autumn's World Cup, along with Argentina, who qualified through section 3a.
Based on the results against the other team in the three-team group, Bermuda, the US will be favourites, despite playing away from home. The US beat Bermuda 91-0, whereas Canada could "only" win 69-3. A draw is therefore on the US side.
The States' have improved over the last decade, and qualifying would make it 6 appearances in 6 Rugby Union World Cups.
The format is very confusing, but losing will not eliminate the USA. Whoever loses goes into Round 4 - a playoff against the Runner Up of Round 3a, Uruguay. This will be a home and away match in September. The winner of that enters the Rugby World Cup.
Defeat there still is not the end of it, as the loser of that match goes into a Worldwide Repechage system, which would be a home and away tie against the winner of another tie between Africa 2 and Europe 4 next year.
In simpler terms, this afternoon is the United States' first chance of three to get into the World Cup. It will arguably be the most difficult chance, but USA are still favourites.
Both these teams should get past Uruguay, whoever loses, so there will be at least three Americas teams (Argentina have already qualified) in next year's tournament in France.
Winning today may or may not be important. In next year's tournament, they will need to finish in the top 2 of a 5 team group to make the Quarter Finals - which is quite unlikely. But if:-
- USA beat Canada (or draw with Canada), they will be in the same group as Australia, Wales and Fiji
- USA lose to Canada, but beat Uruguay, they will be in the same group as England, South Africa and Samoa
- USA lose to Canada, lose to Uruguay, but win repechage tie, they will be in the same group as New Zealand and Scotland
- USA loses to Canada, Uruguay, and repechage tie, they will be out
Winning today will be best in future, as they will have easier teams to play in the Australia-Wales group. Fiji have already qualified through the Oceania section, and this would allow a repeat match from 2003, when the USA lost by one point to Fiji. I think the USA will have improved enough over the last four years to beat Fiji this time. It'll be a great game for third place in Group A whatever. Option 2 is the hardest, although I would like England to beat the USA (Guess who wrote this...) Option 3 will be alright. Wales are currently struggling after success a year or two ago, so the best chance USA have of reaching the Quarter Finals is for them to win today.
It depends on the aims. To qualify, today is not important. To get to the Quarter Finals, already an unlikely feat even if they play New Zealand and Wales, winning today is important.
Source
- Wikipedia
Date
Sat 08/12/06, 5:38 am EST
