US Open Cup: Preview, Prediction, and a Buncha Crap

by user The Manly Ferry

"'Over the last couple of days, we've come to the reality that this could be it for our season,' Donovan says."

(Source)

"'It's very important for us to do well, with the way things have gone with our league play,' [Los Angeles] Galaxy head coach Frank Yallop said."

(Source)

"'After the league match against Chicago, the most important thing to us (is) that Open Cup final,' Galaxy midfielder Peter Vagenas said. 'Until Wednesday night, our world is going to be about winning that Open Cup. ... That's of utmost importance.'"

(Source)

The above represents my shot at pinning down why I think the Los Angeles Galaxy will top the Chicago Fire in tonight's U.S. Open Cup final (on TV: Fox Soccer Channel, 5:00 p.m. PST). It's far from sworn proof of that result, but it plays into some powerful types. Chicago, now tucked safely in the Major League Soccer post-season, risks coming into the game as the "contented cow," a team ready to take its ease ahead of the mental and physical demands of the post-season. Los Angeles, on the other hand, has a fairly basic calculation to resolve: is a bird in the hand (in comparative terms, the U.S. Open Cup) worth two in the bush (long-shot qualification for the post-season and, consequently, the loss of a likely-useful player allocation)? If you know the proverb, you've got some idea of the answer.

For my money, whether the players believe it or not, talk in the locker room before the game touches frequently and with all due reverence on the notion that this ONE GAME - the U.S. Open Cup Final - could become the only happy memory of the Galaxy's 2006 season. A second-guess boils down to the idea that not a few of the players believe this...

What I'm trying to get across is highly intuitive, but still compelling (enough): The Los Angeles Galaxy will win the 2006 U.S. Open Cup because, when they go in for a tackle or suffer the thought of an injury as they rush toward a 50/50 ball, they won't be wondering if this is worth missing out on a Championship run.

Given that, which team do you think wants it more? My money's on Los Angeles. Given the quality of their personnel, they're capable of winning this game under any circumstances. Given one shot at salvaging what remains of their pride, they should win this game - no matter how absent such "X-Factor" considerations are from Major League Soccer's bloodless, piously neutral, (yet still worthwhile) match preview.

It says here, Los Angeles wins it - by channeling Rudy...

Date

Tue 09/26/06, 9:56 pm EST