UFC 73 Preview!
The UFC gets a chance to redeem themselves from the underwhelming UFC 72 with a loaded UFC 73 card this weekend. Stacked truly is an appropriate name for this card. This is possibly the most loaded fight card the UFC has ever put forth.
Let’s break it down.
(Odds come from betonfighting.com)
Prelims
Mark Bocek (+210) Vs. Frank Edgar (-260)
Edgar made a major splash in his UFC debut by beating lightweight title contender Tyson Griffin. That fight might go down as the fight of the year and it certainly put Edgar on the map. I actually saw Edgar fight live and I knew his potential was immense. The pace he sets in the ring is absolutely furious. With that being said I’m surprised he isn’t a bigger favorite in this fight. Bocek is 4-0, but he hasn’t beaten anyone of note. Also this is his UFC debut, which is a curse for many fighters. I like Edgar at these odds a whole lot.
Prediction:
Edgar TKO Round 1
Chris Lytle (-410) Vs Jason Gilliam (+330)
Gilliam is a late replacement for Drew Ficket. That’s never something that works in your favor as a fighter. Gilliam I admit I don’t know a lot about. He’s 9-1 with his only loss coming in his UFC debut against Jamie Verner. Lytle on the other hand is a savvy veteran. I actually expected him to win his season of TUF. He’s a very well rounded fighter. I expect his experience to prevail and for him to take this fight pretty easily.
Prediction:
Lytle TKO Round 2
Diego Saraiva (+190) Vs. Jorge Gurgel (-240)
Gurgel well all know from the Ultimate Fighter. He’s scrappy lightweight fighter, who is well versed in BJJ. He holds a good 10-2 record but his record is not indicative of his ability in the ring. He lost to Mark Hominick, a Kick Boxer and went to decision with Danny Abbadi, a Tae Kwan Doe fighter. These are low level fighters, which he should be submitting easily. Saraiva I also can’t claim to know a ton about. He’s 0-1 in the UFC with a decision loss to Dustin Hazellet. I don’t really know how this fight is going to end but I don’t think Gurgel is that good at all. In know way should he be a 2.4-1 favorite in any fight. I like the underdog Saraiva in this one at these odds.
Prediction:
Saraiva Unanimous Decision
Stephan “Horse Steroids” Bonnar (-450) vs. Mike Nickels (+370)
Bonnar is coming back from his steroid suspension. Nickels is on a three fight win streak. His last win was an upset over Wes Combs in the UFC, but that was over a year ago. Clearly the UFC doesn’t think highly of Nickels ability if they don’t give him a fight for a year after an upset win. This fight is intended to rejuvenate Bonnar’s career. Even though he’s a mediocre fighter, he’s marketable. The odds makers clearly believe Bonnar is going to run through Nickels. I think otherwise. Bonnar hasn’t fought in a year. He hasn’t won a fight since his submission win over James Irvin on 1/16/2006 (Yes he “beat” Jardine but that was B.S., he lost that fight.) This fight is really irrelevant. Neither guy is going to ever be a factor in the UFC. I could truly care less about this fight. If you forced me to make a pick I’m taking Nickels in the upset. As a gambler don’t touch this fight.
Prediction:
Nickels Split Decision
On to the main card!
Antonio Rodrigo Nogueria (-625) vs. Heath Herring (+475)
Nog is a big favorite in this fight and he should be. Herring has awfully takedown defense and Nog already beat Herring in Pride. This fight has the potential to be the “upset special” of the night. It would continue the trend of giant favorites losing in the UFC. As I’ve said before, in a sport revolving around punching each other in the face anything can happen. I wouldn’t touch this fight from a betting perspective. I expect Nog to make short work of Herring and earn submission of the night.
Prediction:
Big Nog Armbar Round 1
Hermes Franca (+200) Vs Sean Sherk (-250)
Now here’s where things get exciting. This fight has fireworks written all over it. One of the best decisions the UFC ever made was to bring back the lightweight division. Sherk, the current champion is a dominant fighter. I don’t think he gets enough credit. He was smashing through people at 170 pounds. However he is coming off rotator cuff surgery and only has one fight under his belt at 155 pounds.
Franca is a fun fighter. He’s everything the UFC wants. He’s explosive in the ring and charismatic outside of it. Franca after a rough patch in his career is now an 8 fight win streak and hasn’t lost in well over a year.
This is your classic wrestling (Sherk) vs. jujitsu (Franca) match up. Usually wrestling prevails. I don’t see Franca being able to stuff Sherks takedowns. I also think it will be difficult for Franca to submit Sherk. Sherk gives BJJ guys a big problem because he has small arms and no neck. It’s hard to submit a guy with his body type. Francas best chance for a submission may be from a leg lock. Standing I think Franca has an advantage but I don’t think this fight will stay standing for long.
Francas best chance to win is either; catching Sherk with a kick/knee when he shoots or sweeping him when they hit the ground. Wrestlers don’t like to be on there back and if Franca can get on top I can see him ending the fight. Cardio wise I think it’s even. This is a 5 round fight, Sherk did go 5 rounds in his last fight against Kenny Florian. However you have got to wonder how much of a factor Sherks rotator cuff is going to be.
I can see this one going either way. The more I think about it the more I see Franca being able to get on top, Sherk giving up his back and Franca winning by rear naked choke.
I’m going to go with my gut. Though as a betting man this fight scares me. It really could go either way.
Prediction
Franca via Rear Naked Choke: Round 4
Rashad Evans (-125) Vs Tito Ortiz (-105)
I have been so pumped for this fight since the day it was announced. Ortiz is one of the faces of the UFC. He’s brash but a fan favorite. Recently though I’ve began to question his ability. Is he overrated? I’ve found his return to the octagon underwhelming. He won a razor thin decision to Forest Griffin (yes I know he had a bum knee, but all fighters are injured before a fight) and beat a 95,000 year old Ken Shamrock twice before being KO’d by Liddell.
Tito’s biggest strength is his ground and pound. But in order to ground and pound he’ll have to get Rashad to the ground. That’s not going to be an easy task. In fact Rashad might be a better wrestler than Tito. That’s going to represent a huge problem for Tito.
I think you will know who is going to win this fight after this first minute of round 1. If Tito shoots and takes Evans down easily than Tito will win this fight. If he can’t, Rashad will walk all over Tito.
Standing it’s a crapshoot. Evans standup has improved immensely. Tito’s standup always looks really crisp, particularly his boxing. He was actually out-boxing Chuck for most of there fight. I think Tito has a slight edge standing because he’s more technical. With that being said Evans still has the ability to knock him out. In terms of cardio Tito is always in sick shape. Evans is a great natural athlete and also always comes into his fights in peak condition.
I was actually shocked by the betting line on this fight. Tito is an underdog. I mean this is Tito Ortiz were talking about! A man who beat Wanderli Silva, Evan Tanner and Vitor Belfort! Evans’s biggest win was against Jason Lambert. Shouldn’t that concern people?
Since this fight was announced I have been excited to bet on Evans, I thought it was a can’t miss bet. Plus I expected Evans to be a dog. However I’ve had a last minute change of heart.
Tito is a warrior. He’s battle tested and while his skills aren’t up there with the Randy Cotoures and Chuck Liddell’s of the world he’s still a great fighter. This is also Rashad’s biggest fight ever and you have no idea how he is going to respond to that.
The single biggest factor that changed my opinion on this fight is Rashad’s last fight against Sean Salmon. Yes he KO’d him in highlight fashion but goes back and watch that first round. Evans got totally dominated. He was taken down at will, literally thrown around like a rag doll. This makes me uncomfortable.
Prediction:
Tito Ortiz TKO Round 3
Nathan Marquadt (+115) vs. Anderson Silva (+145)
I’ve already written a ton so I am going to make this short and sweet. Silva almost got beat by a drained/dead Travis Lutter. Lutter is no where near Marquadts level. I expect Marquadt to win by submission in the second or third round. The only thing working in Silvas favor in this fight is it’s a 5 round fight the longer it goes the more chance he has of KO’ing Marquadt. Silva is slightly overrated these days. I still think 7/10 times Franklin beats him.
Marquadt via Rear Naked Choke Round 3
Read more at: http://3rdstringsafety.blogspot.com/
