Tylersalt's 2007 NL Preview
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by user Tylersalt
The sequel to the preview from the other day. Again, this is also published on my blog, Multivarious.
NL East
I’m drinking the Jimmy Rollins Kool-Aid on this one. The Phils have the best infield in the NL (maybe even in the majors) with NL MVP Ryan Howard, Chase Utley, and Rollins. Freddy Garcia, Cole Hamels, Brett Myers, Adam Eaton, and Jamie Moyer comprise a hell of a rotation — and they have Jon Lieber as trade bait too. The Mets and Braves didn’t get better enough. Fantasy Sleeper: Cole Hamels (SP) Hamels got a lot of mid-season hype last year, but struggled with injuries. He’s got all the tools to really make a splash this season.
Last year’s East champs still have a fantastic offense, headlined by two of the best young players in the league: Jose Reyes and David Wright. That isn’t to mention, of course, Carlos Beltran, Carlos Delgado, and new import Moises Alou. However, the pitching is a shambles; the only free agent they brought in to replace the injured Pedro Martinez (who will be missing most of the season) was Chan Ho Park. Not good. Fantasy Sleeper: Lastings Milledge (CF) Super-prospect Milledge will start the season in the minors, but if one of the outfielders (Alou, Beltran, or Shawn Green) goes down with injury, or if the Mets decide they need more speed, Milledge will most likely be the first one called up.
The Marlins have bar none the best young pitching staff in the National League. Dontrelle Willis is the veteran ace, leading the way with Josh Johnson, Scott Olsen, Ricky Nolasco, and Anibal Sanchez (who pitched a no-hitter last season) right behind him. Last year, those four rookies all won 10 games, making them the first group of more than two rookie teammates to do that in MLB history. The pitching staff alone probably helped them into contention last year, not to mention the offensive production of rookies like NL ROY Hanley Ramirez, Dan Uggla, and Josh Willingham. Oh, and they still have Miguel Cabrera. Next year, expect them back in the postseason, if not back in South Florida. Fantasy Sleeper: Jeremy Hermida (RF) Those who drafted Hermida last year with high hopes were probably disappointed, but he’ll continue to blossom this season. He might be worth a bench spot.
Although the Braves bullpen promises to be a huge strength (along with acquiring Mike Gonzalez from the Pirates ,they absolutely FLEECED the Mariners in the offseason with that Horacio Ramirez-Rafael Soriano trade), I’m not convinced about their starting pitching behind John Smoltz and their offense past Chipper Jones, Andruw Jones, and Brian McCann. Fantasy Sleeper: Mike Hampton (SP) Hey, why not? If you have a late draft pick and are looking for a throwaway pitcher, you could probably do worse. Fact is, the big names mentioned above plus Jeff Francoeur are really the only hitters worth drafting, and then Smoltz and Tim Hudson in the rotation, and Bob Wickman, Soriano, and Gonzalez in the bullpen.
This team is a mess. They don’t have a rotation to speak of, with 2006 one-game winner John Patterson as the de facto “ace.” They’re going to need another couple of years in order to be ready to compete. Fantasy Sleeper: Patterson (SP) Patterson has a lot of talent, if he can keep healthy. Keep an eye on him. Otherwise, Ryan Zimmerman and Chad Cordero are the only Nationals you need to worry about fromink the a fantasy standpoint.
NL Central
The defending champs should be right back in the postseason next year, on the back of Chris Carpenter and Albert Pujols. It won’t be easy for them, and this is probably the most-improved division in baseball, if not the best from top to bottom. Fantasy Sleeper: Chris Duncan (LF) Duncan’s got a lot of raw power and was one of the catalysts to the Cards’ run to the playoffs last season.
2. Chicago Cubs (Wild Card)
Without a doubt the most improved team in the majors, the Cubs have the tools to really make a huge jump in the standings this year. With the additions of Alfonso Soriano (wherever he ends up playing), Cliff Floyd, and Mark DeRosa, the offense should have a major boost. Carlos Zambrano will be himself, and Ted Lilly is quite underrated. Mark Prior and Kerry Wood are basically bonuses at this point. Fantasy Sleeper: Wood (RP) Kerry Wood probably stands a decent chance of closing if he’s successful, and he’ll definitely get a lot of holds if your league counts that. He’s still a strikeout machine.
3. Cincinnati Reds The Reds were in contention until fairly late last season, and expect them to play hard again this year. Adam Dunn and Ken Griffey Jr. will continue to mash the ball, and if Bronson Arroyo and Aaron Harang pitch as well as they did last year, the Reds will continue to improve. One more top-flight pitcher (preferably one who induces a lot of ground balls) and they’ll be right in this thing. Fantasy Sleeper: Ryan Freel(LF) Most everyone knows about Ryan Freel at this point, but in case anyone is unaware of this speedster with some pretty good pop who is eligible at 3 positions (OF, 2B, 3B), I’m putting him here. Don’t forget about Brandon Phillips (2B) or Edwin Encarnacion (3B) either.
The young core of Prince Fielder, Bill Hall, and Rickie Weeks stands to get scary good this season, propelling the Brewers up in the standings. They’ll be really happy if they can get a healthy Ben Sheets for the whole season, and if Chris Capuano continues to improve. Again, in the next few years they should be making a run towards the top. Fantasy Sleeper: Brady Clark (OF) Clark seems to be a little low on the depth charts, but he was a fairly steady contributor last season. In a pinch, he might be one to keep an eye on.
I’m really not sold on the Astros this year, but Roy Oswalt will keep them out of the basement. The rest of the pitching just is not going to be able to keep up with the offense headlined by Lance Berkman, Morgan Ensberg, and new arrival Carlos Lee. Craig Biggio’s march towards 3,000 hits over the next few years should be one of the few bright spots in Houston. Fantasy Sleeper: Chris Burke (CF) Might also be eligible at 2nd base, which would be a big plus. Expect his power numbers to grow a bit this year. Definitely not a starting option in most formats, but could be valuable as a bench player, especially in NL-only leagues.
The Bucs are the hot sleeper team right now, and with good reason. The young pitching with Zach Duke, Tom Gorzelanny, and Ian Snell is quite good, and the offense got an upgrade, adding the lefty Adam LaRoche to Jason Bay and 2006 NL batting champ Freddy Sanchez. There’s a fairly good chance they could leapfrog the Astros, but they’re the Pirates, so I’ll remain skeptical. Within the next few years, this whole division is going to be completely different. Fantasy Sleeper: LaRoche (1B) I could have picked any of those young pitchers, but I think that LaRoche will probably be a more constant producer. A definite option for a fill-in utility or 1st baseman.
NL West
I really like the Dodgers for this year. They lost J.D. Drew, Julio Lugo (both to Boston), and Eric Gagne (Texas) over the offseason, true, but Takashi Saito seems perfectly capable of shutting out games (not like they’ve really been able to rely on Gagne the past few years) and the offense still revolves around Nomar Garciaparra, Jeff Kent, and Rafael Furcal, not to mention the newly-acquired Luis Gonzalez and last year’s big time rookie Andre Ethier. Plus, adding Jason Schmidt (arguably the best free agent pitcher not named Matsuzaka this winter) gives them a force at the top end of the rotation which already includes Derek Lowe, Brad Penny, Randy Wolf, and youngster Chad Billingsley. This division is definitely improved, but I don’t think anyone else has the firepower to catch the Dodgers. Fantasy Sleeper(s): Billingsley and Ethier LA’s two young studs should not be forgotten about in the tail end of draft day. Billingsley is one of the most highly-touted young pitchers in the league, and Ethier can be really helpful as a spot outfield starter at the very least.
The Friars have a hell of a rotation — definitely top-5 in the majors. Jake Peavy, Greg Maddux, Chris Young (who was a horse on my fantasy team last year), David Wells, and Clay Hensley should keep SD in a lot of games they wouldn’t otherwise be in because of their less-than-poten t offense. Adrian Gonzalez, Marcus Giles, and Brian Giles are the best bats they have on the team, and that’s not going to be enough. Khalil Greene is a heck of a young shortstop, but his bat hasn’t quite caught up to his glove yet. Fantasy Sleeper: Josh Bard (C) In what very well might turn out to be “one of those trades” in Boston, the Red Sox sent Bard (born in my hometown, Ithaca NY!) and struggling reliever Cla Meredith to the Padres last season for fan-favorite and knuckleball catcher Doug Mirabelli. Bard, who hadn’t been hitting or catching very well, immediately caught fire and hit .333/.404/.522 for the season, and Meredith was their most reliable reliever not named Trevor Hoffman. Grab Bard if you miss out on one of the top-flight catchers.
I think the new-look D’Backs are going to suprise some people this season and contend well into the summer. The rotation is looking stronger with Randy Johnson’s return and the addition of Doug Davis (not Dave Bush, thanks Sasha!) to sit behind 2006 NL Cy Young winner (and fantasy STUD) Brandon Webb. There’s a lot of young talent on offense as well, with Conor Jackson and Stephen Drew joining Chad Tracy in the infield. There’s going to be quality baseball again in the desert. Fantasy Sleeper: Jackson (1B) Jackson has been a fantastic prospect for the Diamondbacks for a while, flashing quite a bit of power at the minor league level. He might not show enough power at this point to warrant a starting spot at 1st base, but he’s one you should definitely keep an eye on later in the draft.
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It’s going to be a fight to the finish down here at the bottom of the NL West, but not in a bad way. The Giants still have Barry Bonds, but he’s not going to be enough to carry the team into contention as he once was. The addition of the other Barry, Barry Zito, will help, but probably not enough. This is a team on the decline. The Rockies, on the other hand, are most certainly a team on the rise. Tons of young offensive talent (Matt Holliday, Brad Hawpe, and Garrett Atkins) join the team’s elder statesman Todd Helton at the new humidor-less Coors. Holliday and Atkins especially will put up monster numbers this year, moving Colorado out of the NL West basement for the first time in a long time. The pitching is still a problem, of course. Fantasy Sleepers: Troy Tulowitski (COL-SS), Randy Winn (SFG-RF) Tulowitski is a great prospect at SS for the Rox, and has been an early name tossed around to watch for in the NL ROY race. Winn has flown under the radar for many a season, but he’s someone that can really help a fantasy team. Don’t forget about Pedro Feliz for Los Gigantes either — his infield versatility can be a blessing in a pinch.
