Tylersalt's 2007 AL Preview
| 9
|
by user Tylersalt
Here are my predictions and a brief blurb for each team in the Junior Circuit. The National League will come tomorrow. Also posted at my new blog, Multivarious. It's not exclusively sports, but there will be a fair bit of it there.
AL EAST
I swear I’m not being a homer on this one. I really think that the Red Sox pitching is going to take them over the top, regardless of whether that team in the Bronx manages to lure Roger Clemens for one last “one last” season. The team finally has a real leadoff hitter in Julio Lugo, and if they can keep Manny Ramirez happy and J.D. Drew healthy, this team is going to be a real handful come October. Daisuke Matsuzaka will be a finalist for AL Cy Young and ROY. Fantasy Sleeper: Joel Piniero (RP) Don’t be surprised if Piniero wins and thrives in the closer’s spot at Fenway.
2. New York Yankees (Wild Card)
This race is going to come right down to the end. The Yankee offense will mash AL pitching, and the pitching will be just good enough to keep them in it (Pettitte and Mussina will regress, but Chien-Ming Wang will continue his evolution and win 18 games, making him another contender for AL Cy). If they want to get it done with this current version of the team, they’d better do it now, as there’s a (albeit slim) possibility that they could lose both A-Rod and Rivera this offseason. Fantasy Sleeper: Melky Cabrera (LF) Obviously most of the Yanks’ offense is extremely valuble, but Melky puts up pretty good numbers for a fourth outfielder if you’re in a pinch. Later in the season, watch out for uber-pitching prospect Philip Hughes.
The Jays are going to be right in this until September. In the end, I don’t think Halladay and Burnett are going to be enough pitching to survive this division. With the addition of Frank Thomas, though, I’m beginning to think that my thoughts last season that this was the scariest offense we (Boston) faced didn’t even scratch the surface. If they can land one more starter in a trade or next offseason, watch the $#%@ out. Fantasy Sleeper: Alex Rios (RF) A big breakout season last year was derailed late by injury. If he slips into the middle rounds, grab him. Don’t forget about doubles machine Lyle Overbay, either.
The past few years, I’ve been predicting the Rays to move up in the standings. This is a real solid young team, and they could really make the leap if they trade some of their outstanding outfield depth (probably Rocco Baldelli, not Carl Crawford or Delmon Young) for a starting pitcher to complement the phenomenal Scott Kazmir. Fantasy Sleeper: Akinori Iwamura (3B) Although infielders have had a tendency to struggle in the transition from Japan to MLB (see Matsui, Kazuo), Iwamura seems to be a reasonable chance to take. Don’t overpay for him, but keep him in mind if you don’t nab one of the few hot corner blue-chippers and it’s getting late in your draft.
It’s gonna be a tough year for my old hometown team. Injuries have already begun to hit the pitching staff, as well chronicled here. Although Miguel Tejada, Aubrey Huff, and Brian Roberts will continue to produce runs in the lineup, Erik Bedard and (to a lesser extent) Hayden Penn will not be able to keep up. Fantasy Sleeper: Nick Markakis (RF) Definitely worth either a late-round flier if your outfield is weak, or at least a spot on your watch list as a capable injury replacement. A rookie last year, Markakis performed admirably and will continue to blossom as a hitter.
AL Central
Last year’s AL champs figure to be right back in there again this year. Jim Leyland is still there, as is the fantastic young pitching staff headlined by AL ROY (and ace of my fantasy staff last season) Justin Verlander. They also lost just about nobody from their offense and added the still-potent bat of Gary Sheffield. Fantasy Sleeper: Sean Casey (1B) “The Mayor” had a bit of a down-season last year, but he’ll still put up good enough numbers to be a spot first basement for your team.
Even without last year’s first-half pitching phenom Francisco Liriano (out for the year after Tommy John surgery), the Twins figure to give Detroit a run for their money in this year’s edition of what was one of the most competitive races in baseball last season. The offense may not be as scary as “those teams” from the East, but they still have reigning AL MVP Justin Morneau and Joe Mauer, the best hitting catcher in the game. Fantasy Sleeper: Matt Garza (SP) The other big pitching prospect in the Twins system, Garza had a stay in the majors late last season when the pitching staff got hit with injuries. Expect him to put up numbers worthy of a roster spot late in your staff.
I flip-flopped big time between the White Sox and Indians for the #3 spot, and settled on the White Sox because of, surprise surprise, pitching. The White Sox still have a bunch of it, while Cleveland doesn’t quite cut it. C.C. Sabathia is still too injury prone and Cliff Lee isn’t there yet. Plus, with the recent retirement of Keith Foulke, the back end of Cleveland’s bullpen is in disarray. Fantasy Sleepers: Joe Crede (CWS–3B), Josh Barfield (CLE–2B) Crede, who over the past few years has been one of the more productive third basemen in the AL, continues to be undervalued in fantasy drafts. Barfield plays a shallow position and is an absolute speedster. He put up real impressive numbers over the first half of the season last year in San Diego.
What can you say about Kansas City? At least we stand to get a good look at former 1st overall pick Alex Gordon at 3rd base this year. Fantasy Sleeper: Mark Teahen (3B) Teahen really put it together over the second half of the year in 2006, and is definitely worth at least a bench spot. He is probably the only Royals hitter worth your time (not counting Gordon, who won’t be up until later in the season and figures to struggle early).
AL West
Not because they got all that much better, but because the A’s and Halos didn’t. Eric Gagne could turn out to be a bargain in the bullpen, and Mark Teixiera, Hank Blalock, and Michael Young will feast on the suddenly weaker pitching in the rest of the division. Fantasy Sleeper: Ian Kinsler (2B) A late-season fantasy favorite last year, Kinsler (like Barfield above) is a good option at second. Plus, he’s got a solid amount of pop and plays half his games at a launching pad in The Ballpark at Arlington.
This spot is more on the strength of Billy Beane’s reputation than anything else. Their pitching staff obviously got weaker with Barry Zito’s hop across the Bay to San Francisco, although Beane has done more with less in the past. They still have Nick Swisher, one of the best young hitters in the game, and the end of the game is more or less secure with Huston Street. Fantasy Sleeper: Dan Haren (SP) Not really a sleeper, as he’s got a lot of hype at this point. With Zito’s departure and Rich Harden’s injury history, Haren has really become the ace of the A’s staff. This season, he’ll put up top-flight fantasy starter numbers.
3. Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
Gary Matthews Jr. is not enough protection for Vladimir Guererro in this lineup, and that will probably be the Angels’ downfall yet again. Jered Weaver, Bartolo Colon, and the rest of the pitching staff can’t do it all for Los Angelinos this year. Fantasy Sleeper: Howie Kendrick (2B) See a pattern? The AL has a lot of young, serviceable fantasy second basemen. Kendrick doesn’t have as much power as Barfield or Kinsler, though he’ll probably hit for a higher average.
The Mariners have a lot of pieces, but still can’t manage to put them together, and time is running short for them. Ichiro could conceivably bolt after this season, and their big boppers Adrian Beltre and Richie Sexson aren’t getting any younger. Jose Lopez and Yuniesky Betancourt give a glimpse of the future up the middle, but Felix Hernandez still isn’t quite ready to be The Man in the Pacific Northwest. Fantasy Sleeper: Raul Ibanez(LF) Raul’s getting up there, but has been a fairly productive player over the past few years and has manned many a successful fantasy squad for yours truly through the years. He’ll give you some pop as a third or fourth outfielder.
