The future of the NHL
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by user Randman
First off, let me start by saying that I don’t have solid attendance and revenue numbers to back-up my opinion, but if I decided to dig for them I suspect that they would support my thoughts. I’m just writing this off the cuff, to spur some discussion.
The NHL is dying a slow death in the United States. We’ve seen the movement of teams, the absence of a big time television deal and a recent work stoppage which has resulted in the decrease of fan interest in the NHL and even the sport itself. Meanwhile, the resurgence of the NBA and the increasing interest of College Basketball have continued to draw fans away from hockey.
Right now, the Stanley Cup playoffs is currently underway. In my opinion, it falls behind the following sports in terms of interest. This list is in no particular order. The point is that hockey falls after all of these other sports/diversions:
• MLB Baseball • NBA Playoffs • NASCAR • NFL Draft • Horse Racing/Triple Crown
Additionally, hockey is not a sport that every kid on the corner plays or has any interest in playing. A child simply cannot walk down to the local playground or go to their backyard to play hockey. There are substantial costs involved with purchasing equipment, buying ice time and even traveling to regional ice arenas (if there are any nearby). It much easier and inexpensive to grab a basketball, a soccer ball or a bat, glove and baseball and head out to a friend’s house or a local ball field to play.
More easily accessible sports will also lead to the demise of the NHL in the United States. The future fan base will decrease and less folks will be willing spend money to go to games.
So, what happens next…
I think that there will continue to be just enough fan interest in the United States to sustain hockey in large and traditionally successful markets; New York, Philadelphia, Chicago, Detroit, etc. However, smaller markets will slowly see their teams fade away until they are to the point that they either need to suspend operations or move elsewhere.
Where do they move? My future vision of the NHL involves a drastic realignment of the league into 2 divisions – one in North America and another in Europe where interest in hockey is pretty substantial. How many teams will there end up being? I don’t know. Where will they be, I really don’t know that either. My point is that the NHL does not have a future by being a strictly North American product. They need to tap into the global market to sustain the league.
Scheduling this would be a tough undertaking, but perhaps a simple thought would be to have the European teams come to North America for 3-4 week tours, which would be followed by the North American teams touring Europe. The playoffs would need to be shortened and perhaps the site of the finals would have to alternate back and forth.
This idea sort of sounds like a Hockey World Cup of sorts and perhaps it is this type of format that would allow the league to sustain itself.
This is just my opinion and I’m interested in hearing what others think on the subject.
Date
Mon 05/22/06, 6:20 am EST
