The Yankees November Rain
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by Dan Lewis
- Nothin' lasts forever
- Even cold November rain
- Nothin' lasts forever
The eleventh month of the year is upon us, and for the Yankees, the crossroads ahead of them are now a realization. Their best hitter is leaving. The manager who led them to over a decade of playoff berths and four world titles is gone. As many as four other key players may leave via free agency or retire.
In years past, the Yankees modus operandi has been simple: get the best available player. With money being no issue, this has been as easily done as said, with an impressive roster of superstars making their way into pinstripes. Indeed, with the only exceptions stemming from the revolving door known as second base and the Jeter/Posada/Mariano trio that has been in the Bronx since time immemorial, one can easly put together a team that meets the "then-best-available" description: Giambi, A-Rod, Matsui, Sheffield, Damon, Clemens, Mussina, Kevin Brown, Randy Johnson, etc. The Yankees have been able to do this by exploiting three simple truisms: one, when it comes to free agency, they can outspend everyone else (see Jason Giambi); two, they can capitalize on other teams' spending mistakes by acquiring bad contracts for lesser players and C-prospects (see Roger Clemens for David Wells, Homer Bush and Graeme Lloyd); and three, they have a resume of success which makes them more attractive to players.
Whenever one can add a superstar, improvement is significantly more likely than otherwise. For the last decade-plus, that has kept the Yankees within arm's reach of a championship. The question is, can they keep it up? It seems likely, but less likely than in recent memory.
First, the Yankees "mystique and aura" is gone. No longer do people go into the playoffs thinking that the Yankees are destined to run them over; indeed, the Yankees have seen their last seven seasons end at the hands of six different teams and have made first-round exists each of the last three years.
Similarly, the Yankees have, as an organization, slowly eroded away their other traditional strength -- dedication to their players; a sense of a Yankee family, if you will. The family structure started to slip away when the Yanks threatened to end Giambi's contract in the wake of steriod allegations, continued with the unceremonous dumping of Gary Sheffield, and devolved into nonsensical behavior with the disrespectful offer made to Torre and, what may be the greatest sin of all, the curb-tossing of Don Mattingly. Don't take my word for it -- read this essay by Alex Belth, and then this one: "Jeter, Posada--their baseball father is gone now. I often wonder how Jeter's career will play itself out. I could see him aging poorly, like Cal Ripken in his later years." The Yankees-as-family idea is dead.
Second, the trade market is tighter than in years past, especially considering the Yankees needs. At first blush, there are as many as four great players available via trade: Miguel Cabrera, Adam Dunn, Jason Bay, and the crown jewel, Johan Santana. For the Yankees, only two can be considered of real interest (unless Matsui moves to CF) -- Cabrera and Santana. However, neither the Marlins or Twins are likely to take either (a) a relatively inexpensive vet (e.g. Kei Igawa) or (b) an expensive vet plus cash (e.g. Johnny Damon). The cost for Cabrera, per MLB Trade Rumors, could start at Melky Cabrera and Phil Hughes, opening up two new holes and replacing A-Rod with a lesser batter and an atrocious fielder (read: future DH). Similarly, Santana will cost a pitcher (Wang?), Cabrera, and at least one other player, maybe Robinson Cano. No longer is the idea of a Clemens for Wells upgrade possible.
Most importantly, though, the free agent market is weak at a time in which the Bronx needs it to be strong. In the forefront is the simple fact that the best player on the market -- A-Rod -- won't be signing with the Yankees. The next-best replacement, Mike Lowell, is much more likely to follow in the footsteps of Jason Varitek than Johnny Damon and stick with the Red Sox. In center field, with Hank Steinbrenner replacing his father and bordering on the irrational, Andruw Jones may be unlikely. Jones is represented by Scott Boras, the same guy who text messaged Brian Cashman to announce A-Rod's decision to opt out -- something that did not go over well with the Steinbrenner heir. If that irrationality leads the Yankees to slam the door shut on Jones, only Torii Hunter is an obvious fit, and there's no guarantee that he won't see the Los Angeles Dodgers, Detroit Tigers, or other suitor as more suitable. Indeed, the scary truth is that the best solution for the Yankees may be to get Giambi back at 1B and sign the only other super star out there to be DH -- a guy named Barry Bonds. And if you need Bonds to save your off-season, godspeed.
This isn't to say that the Yankees won't go into the 2008 season with a competitive if not superlative team. It's also not to say that they won't give Joe Girardi his first ring as a manager. But nothing lasts forever, and next April may be the first in years where we realistically ask: Will the Yankees make the playoffs?
