The Wild Wild 2006 NL Wild Card
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by user DNL
At the time of this writing, the Dodgers lead the Padres by a half a game in the NL West; the two are tied in the loss column.
The wild-card race is also tight -- the Padres lead, but their lead is a mere 1.5 games over the Phillies. Also in the hunt are the Giants (4 GB) and the Marlins (4.5 GB). With 12 or 13 games to play, who you play is almost as important as how you play.
Here's a look at the schedules of all five.
The Outsiders
Florida Marlins
Schedule: The Marlins have 12 games remaining and are 4.5 out, but, schedule-wise, are in good shape. No, their opponents aren't easy, but the matchups leave the Marlins some control over their own destiny. Their twelve games:
- Three at the Mets, who have little left to play for;
- Three at the Phillies, who they have to pass anyway;
- Three versus the Reds;
- Three more versus the Phillies.
Analysis: Ignoring their remaining schedule, the Marlins need to come close to running the table to have any sort of chance. Being, effectively, 5 games back with 12 to play is bad enough; add in the fact that they have to leap over three teams to get into the playoffs, and it's a nearly impossible task. However, if they do run the table, they'll pass the Phillies by definition -- the Phils, even if they went undefeated in their six non-Marlins games, would lose out to the Marlins. If it weren't for the Florida schedule, all hope would be lost. As it stands, there is a glimmer.
San Francisco Giants
Schedule: The Giants close out their season with a three-game set versus the Dodgers, in San Fran. Their other nine games are against non-contenders. If necessary, the Giants will fly to St. Louis to make up a game postponed by weather on last Sunday.
Analysis: Even though they are a game ahead of the Marlins in the loss column, the Giants have almost no chance of taking the wild card. The six Marlins/Phillies games make it extremely difficult. However, the Giants trial the Dodgers by 5 games in the loss column for the NL West title. With a slump from the Padres, the Giants may have the opportunity to end the season at home within striking distance of an NL West pennant.
Philadelphia Phillies
Schedule: The Phillies homestand is a mix of games -- two more versus Cubs, a three-game set with the Marlins, and then a one-game makeup against the Astros. They finish up on the road, going to Washington and then Florida.
Analysis: Being the leaders of the outsiders has a considerable advantage, as you don't need to worry about how the other outsiders do. You just need to keep winning and hope that the team you need to pass (in this case, the Padres and/or the Dodgers) lose a few games. So, the Phillies should be inspired to see that their schedule is not too rough. It's not a cake-walk, but it's certainly survivable.
More importantly, though, the Phillies are the beneficiary of stupid, stupid MLB rule. Tiebreaker games are considered regular-season games.
The effect of this rule? If the Phillies, Dodgers, and Padres all end the regular regular-season tied, the Padres and Dodgers play a game to determine the NL West victor. That is, the winner takes the pennant... and the loser goes home. That's right -- the loser doesn't get to face the Phillies for the WC "title," because in losing the NL West playoff, the lose falls a half-game behind the Phillies for the WC. So, a three-way tie favors the Phillies greatly, as they win the Wild Card by default. Stupid, stupid, stupid. (Update: Per the comments, it's so stupid, that MLB doesn't actually do this. Oops! --DNL)
The Insiders
San Diego Padres
Schedule: A six game homestand (Arizona, Pittsburgh) followed by a 7 game road-trip (three at St. Louis, 4 at Arizona) closes their 2006 campaign. The Padres have no off days remaining.
Analysis: Look, they just have to win -- and they have little room for error. Some (they have a two game lead in the loss column over the Phils), but little. Can they keep pace with this schedule? Sure.
Los Angeles Dodgers
Schedule: A three game series at home versis the Pirates, then versus Arizona. After a Monday off, they go to Colorado for three and then finish up in SF with the aforementioned Giants series.
Analysis: So, the Diamondbacks get to play NL West spoiler, eh? Actually, they can do more than that -- with all 13 games remaining against NL West foes above them (they get a three-game set with the Giants), a blitz from the D'Backs could mean a surprise in the West. Unlikely, sure.
But this is supposed to be about the Dodgers. The Dodgers are in a great position. Effectively, they're playing 9 games in 10 days against teams that have nothing to do but test out youngsters. Then there's a three-game set versus current fringe contenders in the Giants. By then, the Giants should be eliminated. If so, the Dodgers are going to waltz into the playoffs. If not, watch out.
Date
Tue 09/19/06, 8:26 am EST
