The Swandivers
| 18
|
by user Dahumber
So we've reached the midpoint of the year, which means, if you want, you can take a look at a player's stats, easily multiply all their numbers by 2, and say that's the pace they are on for season ending stats.
Which is all fine and dandy, except there are inevitably those players who have the dreaded second half nose dive, their stats plummet, and their once allstar worthy numbers are brought back to reality, and they are exposed as the players they truly are.
Here are the qualifiers for this year:
Alex Rios - The Staph infection isn't helping matters. When he returns to action, Rios won't be able to keep up the hot pace he started the year with. Keep this in mind, in May, Rios hit .360. In June, he hit 100 points lower. Part of the problem is that Rios, at times, is becoming overly aggressive and not seeing enough pitches, and pitchers are starting to throw him more junk pitches to take advantage of this. Keep also in mind the fact that Rios hit a paltry .236 in the second half of last year. He can't keep up that .330 average; he'll be hard pressed to have it remain over .300
Bill Hall - Last year, Bill Hall hit 17 home runs all year; this year, he's hit 17 in the first half, which has many people excited about his development. However, the large majority of Hall's power last year came prior to the allstar break as well. Hall had 13 jacks in 261 ABs prior to the midseason festivities while only cranking out 4 in 240 ABs afterward. Combine this with the ridiculous power numbers he's exhibiting now, it's safe to say that it would be a little surprising to see Bill hit over 30 for the season.
Carlos Zambrano - He's thrown way more pitches than any other starter in baseball thus far this year,\ and that wear and tear will eventually catch up to the overweight hurler (see Bartolo Colon). Dusty's already ruined Prior and Wood; Zambrano could be next.
Bronson Arroyo - I'm still not convinced by the Reds, and Arroyo's numbers thus far are ridiculous. It would be shocking not to see them come back to earth this second half.
Justin Verlander - The caveat on Verlander is that he's so young and has never gone through the grueling task of starting over 30 games in a season. While the Tigers have been careful in monintoring his pitch count for the first half, Verlander will probably tire as the year progresses and have some rocky starts in the second half. He was shut down late last year when his arm went dead after throwing too many pitches, and while the 10-4 record thus far is impressive, the Tigers will probably cool down a bit this second half, and Verlander's wins will be farther apart.
(This is my first post on this ArmchairGM website, you can find my daily articles on my personal blog at http://dahumber.blogspot.com)
Date
Thu 07/06/06, 6:23 am EST
