The Statistical Answer - Should Ortiz Have Been Walked?

by user Alex Holowczak

After reading the pros and cons of walking David Ortiz, I decided to do something I enjoy - a statistical analysis of all the permetations.

Situation

8-6 up, bottom of the ninth.
Runners at first and second. One out. To come: David Ortiz, Manny Ramirez, Mike Lowell

Batters Statistics

• David Ortiz - .283 AVE, .370 OBP
• Manny Ramirez - .314 AVE, .410 OBP
• Mike Lowell - .273 AVE, .339 OBP

Ways Game Can Be Lost

1. Hit - Hit
2. IBB - Hit - Hit
3. Hit - OB - Hit
4. Hit - IBB - Hit
5. IBB - OB - Hit
6. IBB - IBB - Hit

I only went as far as three hitters, because after that, the number becomes insignificantly small. Also, I have no idea who came in after Lowell.

Chance of each combination (3dp)

N.B. Intentional Walks are 1, because you are guaranteed to get on base. Fly outs are (1 - AVE)/2, assuming a player FO and GO equally (I couldn't get stats on that).

1. .283 x .314 = .089
2. .314 x .273 = .086
3. .283 x .410 x .273 = .032
4. .283 x .273 = .078
5. .410 x .339 = .139
6. = .273

Necessary assumptions

• All hits advance each runner one base other than a runner at second, who scores
• No extra-base hits (including Home Runs) are scored

Conclusions

• Walk Ortiz, Pitch to Ramirez and Lowell was a bad way to do it (.139)
• Walking two was even worse (.273)
• The best way was to pitch-walk-pitch (.032)
• Pitching to more batters improves the chances of getting them out
• In this situation there was a 7 out of 10 chance of losing the game
• Walking a hitter made winning chances even more unlikely

Moral of the Story

Pitchers - don't walk batters! Statistics are on your side.

Obviously, this is a severe generalisation, but it gives a fair indication of the right thing to do in this situation. My doing the method suggested, pitch to Ortiz, walk Ramirez (unless the hit scores two), then pitch to Lowell, more often than not, you would not lose the game. N.B. Not losing is different from winning.

This can be taken much, much further, with more statistics available, but I don't think the results will be too much different from those I have shown above.

Please point out any errors I may have made, and I will make an effort to check, and if neccessary, alter them.

Date

Wed 08/02/06, 4:51 am EST

The sharkDraft Pick

1216 days ago

Score 3

Nice job. I agree with your conclusion. Although Lowell's BA at the time was .293, not .273.

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Alex HolowczakHall of Famer

1216 days ago

Score 1

I took career averages, not season averages. It could be done with season averages instead though, but I'm sure you'd get similar results. They were still stuffed in that scenario.

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FriskysmanVarsity Captain

1216 days ago

Score 2

Very nice work, though I don't agree with every part of your analysis. For one, if you walk Ortiz and Manny, that puts Ortiz on second base and it could very well take two hits to score him. Also it doesn't account for the fact that Ortiz and Manny are Crazy Out Of Their Minds when in situations like this and Lowell probably isn't. This is one of those situations where statistics can prove a point that probably doesn't make a lot of real-world sense. Interesting, though.

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Alex HolowczakHall of Famer

1216 days ago

Score 1

Yeah, I agree, but hit-hit-hit was even more unlikely, .024 in fact. Which is even less likely. It was the least likely way Boston could win. Also, I said "not lose". The two runs in front of Ortiz could easily have already scored by then.

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ThefeedWaterboy

1216 days ago

Score 0

Nice work on the analysis. I would note, however, that you didn't seem to add in Carmona's contribution to the eventual outcome. I don't know enough about him but surely who is pitching has something to do with how everything plays out. Was an interesting read, would love to see how Carmona affected the situation though.

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Alex HolowczakHall of Famer

1216 days ago

Score 0

That's why I wrote it from the pitchers POV. These odds simply show how best to go about the task of pitching based on the statistics of the hitters. I agree, the pitcher has an effect, but it is unneccessary information in what I was setting out to show.

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I am a cpcpMajor Leaguer

1216 days ago

Score 0

Because Carmon's only been in the closer role for two weeks or so, it's hard to judge his outcome. His stats are so few you can't really analyze them. What you can assume though is an experienced clutch hitter like Ortiz against a rookie pitcher like Carmona is going to end the way it did more times than not.

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I am a cpcpMajor Leaguer

1216 days ago

Score 1

Wow, you're a nerd. :-) Great analysis. I appreciate the effort and you're welcome for the topic to analyze. :-)

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Alex HolowczakHall of Famer

1216 days ago

Score 1

I'd be nothing without my trusty calculator.

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Anonymous Fanatic #1

1216 days ago

Score 1

I like your theory, but it ignores a whole spectrum of possibilities in fielder's choices, errors, sacrifice bunts, Wild Pitches, Intereference... all kinds of things could throw variables into your calculation. That's the beauty of baseball... anything can happen and the game's not over until it is actually over. Even down 10 runs with 2 outs, you still have a chance (no matter WHAT your calculator says, hee hee)! As Always, nice work!

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