The Other Sox and Mark Buehrle

by user El Guapos Ghost

The White Sox are crazy to refuse Mark Buehrle a no-trade provision. He is leaving at least $30 million on the table. The guy probably just doesn’t want to sign a great deal for the club and be dealt over the winter to, say, the Mets for Lastings Millege and Phillip Humber or to one of the L.A. teams.

Buehrle could demand a trade after the 2008 season like his current teammate, Javy Vazquez did to get out of Arizona back in 2005, but why put yourself and your family through all of that when you are giving up a small fortune. The White Sox are being totally unreasonable.

Buster Olney comments that the Other Sox stance seems to be in part because…

The trade value of prospective free agents, like Buehrle, has plummeted so much, general managers are saying, that in most cases, a team will actually get a better return by keeping the player and receiving the draft pick compensation when the player signs elsewhere.

It is factor that needs to be weighed heavier than in the past, although the club might not receive a first-round if the free agent signs with a team that finishes in the bottom half of the standings. In that case, the club being compensated receives a second-round pick, in most cases, but now that pick is going to be around selection 65-100 in 2008 instead of 45-60 back in 2006.

The new CBA rule that states…

…teams that lose Type B free agents, which had previously received a pick from the signing club, will now get a sandwich pick between the first and second rounds.

Since the signing club of a Type B free agent does not have to give up a pick, almost every Type B free agent will be offered arbitration, the player will decline and will sign with another team this winter. It is a win-win-win for all parties and a flaw in the new CBA. One of the consequences of this clause is a huge supplemental first-round, which pushes back the second and making it less valuable. (The compensation for not signing your first-round pick starting in 2008 could also push back the second.)

It has been long rumored that Buehrle will sign with the Cards. If he does and St. Louis continue to play poorly, the Other Sox will get a supplemental and the Cards second-rounder likely around 90-100. With that in mind, Kenny Williams should just give him the damn no trade clause. If that is a deal breaker, which it should not be, then trade Buehrle. The likely draft picks and their bonuses are not worth more than a pair of B prospects.

DNLLegend

877 days ago

Score 1

That's really interesting. Just to be clear, though, are you saying the following: It's more likely that a team will offer Type B's arb, because (a) the payout is slightly higher (a sandwich pick instead of a 2nd rounder) and (b-1) other teams are likely to make full market-value bids on that player, even though arb was offered, because it doesn't cost them anything and therefore (b-2) the player is unlikely to accept the arb offer?

If so, I think you're making a good point. It shouldn't really matter, though, and Olney's statement is just, well, wrong. If the value of draft pick compensation changes, so will the value of the offer made on the would-be free agent.

Basically, in Buehrle's case, it seems that the value of the picks a team gets from Buehrle goes down (as he's a near lock to be a Type A free agent). So, the result? The White Sox should expect -- and accept -- less in value for him.

On the other hand, let's say Brad Lidge is going to be a Type B free agent (totally hypothetically: I don't know if he even IS a FA to be). The value of Lidge, if he walks, goes up, for the reasons stated before. NB that it's still less than a Type A FA.

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DNLLegend

877 days ago

Score 2

Also, I disagree with your conclusion. A sandwich pick (say, pick 50) and the Cards #2 (say, #100) is pretty good. Just because it's not *as* good doesn't make it "bad".

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Anonymous Fanatic #1

877 days ago

Score 1

DNL - They get a sandwich pick no matter what. The variable is the comp pick. My point which may not have been stated well is that if the Other Sox aren't going to sign Buehrle then they should deal him. Two B prospects (no signing bonus, less risk because they are closer to the majors) is more valuable than a two picks outside of the top 45.

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The Waiver WireSoccer Kid

876 days ago

Score 0

I'm not surprised they don't want to give him a no-trade clause. I'm sure that the biggest reason for signing Buehrle to a 4-year deal now is to increase his trade value. There's no way the White Sox would get any type of legitimate prospects if there existed the possibility of Buehrle not spending more than half a season with his new team, then re-signing somewhere else.

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