The Obligatory Sleepers and Busts Column

I came to the meeting sweating bullets like Tank Johnson. My hands were shaking. I raised my voice to speak, but my throat tightened into a knot. The words had run through my mind over and over, but now, on the edge of casting aside the demons of my past, they failed me. I was choking. Visions of Scott Norwood, Peyton Manning of 1998-2005, and Ray Finkle’s mangina popped into my head. I shook them off and spoke the words that have kept me in utter darkness and despair for the past four years: “Hello, my name is Toby and I am a Raiders fan.” Such is life these days for the fans of Raider Nation. Coming off a 2-14 season, they are tied with the Buffalo Bills for the toughest schedule in the NFL with opposing teams having a combined .539 winning percentage. Even worse, I am writing a column on sleepers and busts and they don’t have one player that could even be considered a bust. Terrific. Thankfully, with huge question marks at every position except punter, I wasn’t even able to squeeze a sleeper out of their team. Should be a great season for Shane Lechler. On to the sleepers and busts:
Sleepers

Terrence Copper, WR, New Orleans Saints. Last year, the combination of Drew Brees’ accuracy and Sean Payton’s play calling resulted in New Orleans becoming an offensive juggernaut. Marques Colston came out of nowhere to produce one of the best rookie seasons in NFL history, torturing defenses and dominating fantasy leagues where he had TE eligibility (not Fleaflicker!). With Joe Horn in Atlanta this year, the WR2 spot alongside Colston looks to come down to a battle between two fourth-year players—Devery Henderson and Terrence Copper. While Henderson’s name likely factors more prominently in fantasy owners’ minds as a result of his NFL-leading 23.3 yards/catch, Copper proved to have the surer hands last year. Of New Orleans’ 39 dropped passes—which left them tied for second most in the league behind Green Bay—Henderson was the owner of 8 drops; Copper on the other hand didn’t drop a single pass, despite being targeted only 12 fewer times than Henderson. Those sure hands, combined with Brees’ accuracy and a system that was 5th in the league in attempts, 1st in completions, 4th in TDs, and 1st in yardage, should make Copper a trusted target and solid fantasy producer this season. Look for him to beat out Henderson and rookie Robert Meachem for the WR2 position on the team, as Henderson continues to be effective as a deep threat in the third WR spot.

Tarvaris Jackson, QB, Minnesota Vikings. Jackson did little to impress in his three starts at the end of last season, throwing only 2 TDs and turning the ball over 5 times (4 INTs and a lost fumble) in three losses. Many fantasy experts and NFL pundits have already written him off as a small college second-round reach doomed to fail, but I see a number of things working in his favor. First of all, his coach, Brad Childress, has a history of turning mobile quarterbacks into success stories. He served as quarterbacks coach for the Eagles from 1999-2002, when a young man named Donovan McNabb was getting booed before he even took a snap. As offensive coordinator of the Eagles from 2003-2005, Childress helped maintain McNabb’s early success despite a lack of quality and/or sane (read: Terrell Owens) receivers. In the upcoming season, Jackson has a very favorable early schedule in which the Vikings do not encounter a single pass defense that ranked in the top 15 last year in their first 4 games. Jackson has been getting all of the first-team reps at the beginning of training camp and the Vikings running game with Chester Taylor and Adrian Peterson should help take some pressure off his shoulders. An added benefit for fantasy owners is Jackson’s speed, which allows him to pick up a few extra yards, which translate into a few extra fantasy points. In his three starts last year, Jackson had 77 yards rushing and a touchdown, good for a little more than 4 extra fantasy points/game in most league formats. He should also have plenty of opportunities to leave the pocket, as the Vikings allowed 43 sacks last year. It’s just a shame he can’t face his own worst rated pass D during the season.

Chris Henry, RB, Tennessee Titans. Chris Henry (the one who drives sober) is a second-round pick out of Arizona, who is competing for the starting tailback position with Chris Brown and LenDale White. A small and speedy back, he has a legitimate chance of starting the season with primary rushing responsibilities as a result of the injury concerns that surround both Brown and White. Last year, the Titans had all intentions of grooming White to be their RB of the future, but he has suffered a variety of injuries and has had a difficult time staying away from the all-you-can-eat buffet in his first year. Brown, on the other hand, found no other suitors on the free agent market and ended up being forced to resign with the Titans. Like White, he has shown as much talent at getting injured as he has at running the football. That leaves Henry with the opportunity to make a good impression, which he has done so far by signing a contract and being in camp. Titans offensive coordinator Norm Chow has already been impressed by the rookie, so look for Henry’s speed and fresh legs (he had only 269 carries at Arizona) to give him the advantage in Tennessee.

Adrian Peterson x 2, RBs, Chicago Bears and Minnesota Vikings. Prior to addressing the issue of both Petersons as potential sleepers this season, I would like to note that I am a bit biased, having drooled over the Vikings’ Peterson since his freshman year at Oklahoma, in hopes that I would one day be able to draft him in my keeper league. Now the day is approaching and only Chester Taylor stands in the way of my dream, as it would be difficult to justify making him an early round pick when he will be fighting for playing time. Thankfully, I firmly believe that Peterson will displace Taylor rather quickly. He are my reasons: 1) Taylor was very mediocre last year, fading down the stretch and averaging only 4 yards/carry despite the offseason signing of Steve Hutchinson. In fact, take away Taylor’s 95-yard run against the Seahawks and he averaged 3.7 yards/carry. You don’t spend $49 million dollars on a guard so your running back can be mediocre. You also don’t spend a first-round pick on a running back and guarantee him $17 million so he can sit on the bench (unless, of course, you’re the Bears and it’s Cedric Benson, which we will get to in a second) 2) Taylor lost 3 fumbles last year, including two at the goaline, and only scored 6 touchdowns with the bulk of the carries in the red zone. Peterson’s motor doesn’t quit—that’s why they call him “all day”—and he only lost six fumbles during his entire career at Oklahoma. 3) Peterson is too explosive and talented not to supplant Taylor in the starting lineup. How good will he be? Good enough to be your second RB this year, after week 4. Back to Cedric Benson. A simple formula should do the trick in explaining why his backup could be a nice commodity to have this year: Teammates not liking you + history of injuries = trouble. The only question that remains is whether the Bears’ offensive line is the first in NFL history to refuse to block for its running back. So, if you are drafting Benson, make sure to pick up the Bears’ Peterson as a handcuff, or better yet, pick up Peterson in the later rounds of your draft, before the one person who likes Benson has a chance to do so.

Busts Tony Romo, QB, Dallas Cowboys. Mr. Carrie Underwood was the talk of league in the middle of last season, having replaced Drew Bledsoe and led the Cowboys to a 5-1 record in his first six starts. It got so ridiculous that some people were calling for him to be MVP of the league. Well, it’s amazing what 8 INTs and a case of butterfingers will do for your MVP credentials. Heading into this year, Romo has a contract squabble going, a very questionable WR corps with TO (when is he not questionable?) and an aging Terry Glenn. On top of that, Dallas went out and signed Leonard Davis to man the right guard slot (because he’s proven to be incapable of manning just about everything else); there’s nothing that increases the production of an offensive line or a QB as much as signing a first-round bust. I expect the conversation this year to focus less on MVPs and more on whether the Drew Henson-era in Dallas was good or great.

'Matt Hasselback', QB, Seattle Seahawks. Last year was a disappointing year for Hasselbeck and nothing points to a drastic change in his performance in the near future. Getting rid of Darrell Jackson might do wonders for the team’s chemistry, but chemistry doesn’t get you fantasy points. Jackson will take with him 63 receptions, 956 yards, and 10 TDs, and his replacement will be either D.J. Hackett or Nate Burleson. For those of you familiar with the work of Burleson, you can pencil in Hackett for the WR2 slot opposite Deion Branch. While Hackett has potential to be a sleeper this year, I’m not convinced, and the overall lack of WR depth should hurt the Seahawks offense. With questions remaining about what Shaun Alexander has left in the tank, don’t count on the running game to take too much pressure off Hasselbeck as it did in 2005, his most productive year. Consider Hasselbeck a backup QB at best, and not in the top 15 as many rankings have him.

Marshawn Lynch, RB, Buffalo Bills. The past few years have not been kind to the running backs of the Buffalo Bills. While Willis McGahee showed flashes of brilliance, 4 yards/carry was his highest season average and came back in the 2004 season. In an effort to boost the running game’s production, the Bills went out and signed Derrick Dockery from the Redskins to open some holes in the line for rookie Marshawn Lynch, a first-round pick out of Cal. Unfortunately, 3 other starters from the Bills offensive line remain and the other new starter is Langston Walker, who couldn’t keep a steady job on the Raiders offensive line. Lynch comes from the same school that produced J.J. Arrington, a sleeper pick two years ago, whose terrible offensive line helped him vanish quickly into fantasy obscurity. While Lynch may not be stuck behind as atrocious of a line, his still can’t be considered very good, especially near the goaline. McGahee was held to 11 touchdowns the past two years, even though he had almost 600 carries. You might chalk this up the McGahee slashing running style, but he was too talented of a back to be held to such low numbers. Lynch is sure to provide better fantasy numbers than Arrington did in his go-around, but don’t expect too much from a rookie back with a suspect offensive line.

Steve Smith, WR, Carolina Panthers. Smith normally finds himself among the top 5 receivers drafted, but there are many reasons to be concerned about his production during the 2007 fantasy season. The QB situation in Carolina is far from stable, with Jake Delhomme (a Fleafounder all-star) continuing to show more of a spiral in his career path than in the footballs he throws. Combine this with Smith’s failure to register a 100-yard receiving game in the final 7 weeks of 2006 and you can see why I am skeptical. With such a small frame and so many touches and injuries the past few years, age may be getting to Smith a little more quickly than others. Carolina’s WR depth is also a concern, as Kerry Colbert is currently listed as the WR2 and Dwayne Jarrett cannot be expected to fill Keyshawn Johnson’s old possession receiver role straight out of the chute. As a result of the Panthers weak depth at WR, Smith looks to receive double coverage a majority of the time and Delhomme is certain to miss him on many others. Don’t bother wasting a pick on the Carolina WR—especially early in the draft—when everything points to a down year.

Todd Heap, TE, Baltimore Ravens. The addition of Willis McGahee should revitalize the Ravens running attack, but it could spell trouble for one of the team’s most valuable fantasy contributors. Heap has put together back-to-back quality fantasy seasons, finishing in the top 5 of his position in most league formats. While the tight end has been a consistent fantasy performer, last season he did most of his scoring inside 10-yards, as only 1 of his 6 touchdown receptions came outside of 10 yards. With McGahee likely taking a good chunk of the goaline touches and Steve McNair moving around as smoothly as a Lindsay Lohan trip to rehab, Heap’s production should dwindle. Tack on the assortment of injuries he has acquired—and often played through—during his career, and I smell trouble for his fantasy impact. For those of you who made it this far, thanks for reading. --Toby G.