The New England Patriots Preview
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by Silencer76
So, I have been working on team previews on my blog, Juuust a bit Outside, and just finished the AFC East. Feel free to check out the other teams at your leisure if you so choose. I will post my New England preview here so everyone can get an idea of how I do things. I hope to get through all the teams, in between swearing at the TV, playing Madden 08, and fantasy football drafts, before the season starts.
NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (12-4 in 2006, lost to Indianapolis in AFC Championship): The Patriots were a mere 30 minutes from yet another Super Bowl appearance last year when things suddenly went awry. Peyton Manning played like he does against the rest of the league, the Colts defense stiffened, and Joseph Addai scored the winning TD with just over a minute remaining to send the Colts past the stunned Patriots and into the Super Bowl. Owner Bob Kraft wasted no time bolstering his club for the upcoming 2007 campaign.
KEY ADDITIONS: WR Randy Moss (trade, Oakland), WR Wes Welker (trade, Miami), WR Donte Stallworth (FA, Philadelphia), DE/LB Adalius Thomas (FA, Baltimore), WR Kelley Washington (FA, Cincinnati), FB Sammy Morris (FA, Miami), TE Marcellus Rivers (FA), CB Dante Wesley (trade, Chicago), S Brandon Meriweather (24th overall pick, Miami FL), CB Tory James (FA, Cincinnati), TE Kyle Brady (FA, Jacksonville)
KEY DEFECTIONS: TE Daniel Graham (FA, Denver), RB Corey Dillon (FA), RB Patrick Pass (FA, Houston), P Todd Sauerbrun (FA, Denver)
OFFENSE: New England did not have problems moving the ball last season, as they averaged 123 yards a game on the ground with the two headed attack of Corey Dillon (199 carries, 812 yards, 13 TD) and rookie Lawrence Maroney (175, 745, 6). This year the job will be solely Maroney's, as Dillon is gone. His top game last season came against the Bengals, where he carried 15 times for 125 yards and a pair of touchdowns. Maroney is explosive and is a decent receiver out of the backfield. Sammy Morris, who rushed for 400 yards in Miami last year, will be a solid blocker, and can spell Maroney from time to time as well.
The quarterback position, as it has for several years now, is in the competent hands of Tom Brady. Brady completed 61.8 percent of his passes last year for 3529 yards, 24 touchdowns and more importantly, only 12 interceptions. The offensive line prevented him from getting knocked around too much, as he was sacked just 26 times in 06. Brady is a consummate field general, who can move his team efficiently down the field, whether methodically or in the two minute drill. One thing he does need to cut down on this season are the fumbles. He put the ball on the turf 12 times last season, losing four. As explosive as the Pats can be, a team never wants to hand over free points.
Receiving options are plentiful for Brady. The team is loaded with pass catchers, and odds are, a couple of the talented bunch are going to end up being cut due to the depth. Reche Caldwell is the leading returning receiver, catching 61 balls for 760 yards and four touchdowns in 06. Add to that stable recently acquired Randy Moss (42, 553, 3 for a depressed OAK offense), Donte' Stallworth (38, 725, 5 for PHI), Wes Welker (team leading 67 catches and 687 yards for Miami), Kelley Washington (9, 115, 1 in five games for CIN), and returning weapons in TE Benjamin Watson (49, 643, 3), the ever reliable Troy Brown (43, 384, 4) and Jabar Gaffney (11, 142, 1) and there is simply one question. Will there be enough footballs to go around for this group? Moss and Stallworth are able to stretch the field vertically, should Belichick choose to go that route, Brown is a consummate possession receiver, as is Welker. Neither are afraid to go over the middle. That leaves Washington, Gaffney and Chad Jackson battling for a spot on the team. 30 other offensive coordinators (Tom Moore in Indianapolis has his own crew.)
DEFENSE: The Pats picked up arguably the biggest defensive free agent in the offseason, acquiring DE/LB Adalius Thomas. Thomas, at 270 pounds, is heavy enough to play end, but has amazing quickness for someone of that size, allowing him to blow by tackles and pressure the quarterback. He had 64 tackles and 11 sacks last year for Baltimore. In his final three seasons in a Ravens uniform, Thomas racked up 188 tackles, 28 sacks, 13 pass defenses and 4 picks. Add him to a wrecking crew at LB that includes veterans Mike Vrabel (89 tackles, 4.5 sacks, 3 INT, 3 FF), Tedy Bruschi (112 tackles, 1.5 sacks, 1 INT), and Rosevelt Colvin (53 tackles, 8.5 sacks, 1 FF) as starters, with perennial All Pro Junior Seau (69 tackles, 1 sack) and special teams ace Larry Izzo (14 tackles), and the LB corps is one of the strongest in the league.
The defensive line is anchored by DE Richard Seymour (40 tackles, 4 sacks), along with Ty Warren (84 tackles, career high 7.5 sacks, 1 FF) and hulking NT Vince Wilfork (50 tackles, 1 sack.) The front seven stifled opponents rushing attacks, limiting them to just over 94 yards per game and a 3.9 ypc average. The Pats pass rush also generated 44 sacks, a number sure to increase with Thomas's addition.
Where the Pats may regress defensively is in pass defense. Pro Bowl corner Asante Samuel (64 tackles, 10 INT, 14 PD, 1 FF) is disgruntled about being tagged a franchise player, and with no long term contract worked out, is threatening to hold out until week 10, at which point he can play the final six weeks and become an unrestricted free agent next season, or demand a trade.
The Pats did acquire a bit of insurance, acquiring CB Dante Wesley from Chicago for an undisclosed 2008 draft choice, but he is no Samuel. In the meantime, the starters in the secondary will include Ellis Hobbs (44 tackles, 2 INT), hard hitting Rodney Harrison (49 tackles, 1 sack, 1 INT), and Eugene Wilson (24 tackles in four games) at free safety. If Samuel does not report, which seems likely, then Tory James (43 tackles, 4 INT, 14 PD for CIN in 06) will likely get first crack.
SPECIAL TEAMS: Rookie kicker Stephen Gostkowski was decent last year, hitting 20 of 26 field goal attempts (76.9 percent.) However, it seems that the Pats have some concerns about his leg power or accuracy, as they attempted just five field goals from beyond 40 yards last season (he was 3 of 5, 2 of 4 from 40-49 and hitting his only attempt from beyond 50, a 52 yarder.) He was a bit erratic from 30 to 39 yards, hitting just 7 of 10. He will need to improve or the Pats may start looking for a new option.
Josh Miller won out in a three way battle for the punter job last season, averaging 43 yards per kick on his 43 punts. His net was 35.8 yards, and he did manage to drop 12 of his boots inside the 20 yard line. His numbers were pretty much on par with his career averages (43.1 yards gross, 36.2 net.)
Kevin Faulk will be the punt returner du jour, as he averaged 10.5 yards per return last season. Ellis Hobbs, at least for now, is designated to be the kick returner. He averaged 36 yards a crack on his ten runbacks last season, including a 93 yard score.
OUTLOOK: What was a strong team became even stronger with free agency and savvy trading. If Moss returns to his previous form from Minnesota (from 99-03 he averaged 91 catches a year, and 12 TDs), and Stallworth can stretch the field as well, defenses will be hard pressed to stop the Patriots attack. What may slow them down is the Samuel situation. He was far and away the Pats shutdown corner, and teams may find it easier to throw on them.
When it is all said and done, look for New England to equal last year's mark, and battle for AFC supremacy, though the Colts and Chargers will loom large in their path once again.
