The Mets, The Six-Man Rotation, and "Productive Throwing"
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by user DNL
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I'm a Mets fan. And with all the talk surrounding Mark Buehrle and the return of Pedro Martinez, many of my fellow Mets fans wonder: Are we going to be left with "too much pitching"? Sure, we all joke how there's no such thing, but with Tom Glavine immovable, Orlando Hernandez unbelievable, and John Maine and Oliver Perez solid if not stellar, a Buehrle acquisition may mean a six-man rotation. And even if not, Jorge Sosa's surprising 6-3, 3.79 ERA gives pause to those of us -- myself included -- who were advocating for his move to the bullpen upon Pedro's return.
That's right -- were advocating. Now I'm on another tilt: The six man rotation, tempered with what I call "productive throwing".
What is "productive throwing"? Typically, pitchers in the starting rotation get four or five days of "rest" between starts, depending on when days off fall. As many baseball fans know, "rest" is a misnomer, as these pitchers typically throw bullpen sessions on their third day off. This is called "throwing."
However, there's really no reason that "throwing" need to be wasted in the bullpen. When Roger Clemens came in last week to face Barry Bonds, he was simply throwing in lieu of his scheduled pen session. Last year, during the playoffs, Tom Glavine was said to be "available" in relief if need be; after all, he was scheduled to throw in the 'pen anyway. I'm calling these throwing sessions "productive throwing", because they eat an inning.
The downside of productive throwing is that it's inconsistently required and not necessarily preferred over current options. Let's look at this year's Mets team to see why.
The 2007 Mets, to date, are a very good case study example. No pitcher who has started a game has come into a different game in relief; similalry, the Mets have a clear divide between effective relievers and ineffective ones, with only Aaron Heilman in the grey area.
Let's set the Mets rotation as Glavine, Maine, Perez, Duque, and Sosa. Let's also assume no off-days. That means:
- On Glavine's starts, Perez is throwing
- On Maine's starts, Duque is throwing
- On Perez's starts, Sosa is throwing
- On El Duque's starts, Glavine is throwing
- On Sosa's starts, Maine is throwing
Let's also look at the bullpen:
- Aaron Sele is only to be used as a mop-up man.
- Guillermo Mota is typically the last arm of resort. He's used when there is no one else available, including when the game is still in question, but he's not preferred.
- Scott Schoenweis is like Mota, only more often used, and can be leaned on as a lefty-specialist.
- Aaron Heilman, Joe Smith, and Pedro Feliciano are, for better (Feliciano) or worse (Heilman), trusted bullpen arms.
- Billy Wagner rocks.
To paint with a broad brush:
- The Mets would rather have Wagner, Feliciano, and probably both Smith and Heilman come into a game in relief than any of the five starters. This is probably correct.
- With Schoenweis, the Mets would rather use the starter, unless (in the cases of Maine, Duque, and Sosa), a lefty is needed.
- The Mets would rather use any of the five starters over Mota and/or Sele, but have hope for Mota.
First situation: At home, Tom Glavine starts and throws 6 innings, leaving the game down 3-2. Aaron Heilman pitched two innings in relief the night before, and isn't available (or something to that effect -- it may not even matter). Let's assume that the Mets will only use Wagner for the 9th if the game is tied or if the Mets take the lead. That means they have to fill two, if not three innings. Typically, the Mets would call in Schoenweis in the 7th and Mota in the 8th, putting a winnable game at risk. However, with productive throwing, they instead hand the ball to Perez, who hopefully can throw one effective inning, and limiting the risky innings. That's producting throwing at its best.
However, let's look at the case where Glavine starts and throws 6 and 2/3s innings. He leaves the game with a 3-1 lead, and a runner on 2nd. As it stands now, the Mets would probably have Feliciano or Smith come in to get the batter (depending on handedness), with the other or Heilman pitching the 8th, and Wagner going the 9th.
If we mix in "productive throwing"? Oliver Perez would be available, but unused. Having him throw a bullpen session at 10 PM is foolish, so in this case, we have a problem.
That's where the six man rotation comes into play. First, note that the bigger rotation doesn't cost you a roster spot, as Aaron Sele is virtually worthless. Say Glavine gets totally bombed, lasting only 1 and 1/3. Fine. Bring in Schoenweis or Mota, have them go 2+ IP, then bring in the other and repeat. Perez is "just looking to get work in," so you don't care if he's effective, and he can throw 1 IP of batting practice. That's seven or eight innings before you turn around, and then you can hand the ball of to whomever also "needs work".
The value of the sixth man in the rotation is that the extra day of rest gives you a fall-back position when the "throwing" starter does not get into the game. In the situation where Perez is available but unused, big deal -- just have him toss a bullpen session the next day. This is really no different than the slight schedule hitch he'd feel if there were an off-day between two of his starts.
The six-man rotation has a lot of positives -- less work for pitchers means fewer injuries; some pitchers are simply better on longer rest; and as pitchers return from injury (e.g. Pedro Martinez), there's a feeling of "easing him in".
However, it has a few negatives. The big one? You want to use your best pitcher more often, not less often.
Again using the Mets as an example, I'm unsure of the validity of that qualm. Through 74 games, Mets starters have thrown 448 IP; the bullpen has racked up 218. If the Mets were to expand to a six-man rotation -- be it via acquiring Buehrle or having Pedro return -- there's no reason to think that those IP counts would change significantly. Let's also assume that the IP breakdown, for the five current starters, broke down evenly, so Tom Glavine had 89 2/3 IP credited thus far. (He and Maine are above that; Perez is just under; Duque and Sosa significantly under.) Add in a sixth starter, and it falls to 74 2/3.
On average, say that productive throwing occurs 50% of the time, and for exactly 1 IP. That means that each SP gains .5 IP per turn through the rotation. With 74 games played thus far, each starter is getting an additional 6 1/3 IP. Instead of throwing 89 2/3 IP in a standard five-man rotation, a pitcher now throws about 80 IP. Over the course of a 162 game season, we see each pitcher losing about 21-22 IP.
Losing 22 IP from Pedro Martinez, and instead replacing it with four-plus innings from Glavine and the rest of the current Mets rotation -- that's not ideal. But that isn't what's really happening. You are really taking 22 IP from Pedro, Glavine, Maine, Perez, and Duque, and giving it to Jorge Sosa. You are ALSO taking 75 or more innings from Aaron Sele (projected to throw 56 1/3) and Ambriorix Burgos/Guillermo Mota, and giving those IP to Sosa. Plus, you're giving higher leverage-factor innings to better pitchers, as you can now use Pedro when, say, Maine goes 6 innings and leaves in a tie ball game, instead of turning to Mota or Schoenweis.
The other advantage is that, come playoff time, each of your six starters now has experience coming into the game in relief situations. Right now, the Mets are going to have the "good problem" of having to relegate at least one of Pedro, Glavine, Duque, Maine, or Perez to the bullpen when October rolls around. Glavine simply isn't an option. El Duque may be the Mets best starter, so he probably should be skipped over. Pedro? I like the idea, but I can't see it happening. Maine has made three relief appearances in his career, and with an ERA+ of 142, is a silly, silly choice. Perez? You mean the guy who pitched an incredible Game 7 in the 2006 NLCS, and hasn't made a relief appearance since 2002?
Ugh.
Indeed, "productive throwing" solves the issue, by making all your starters capable and comfortable to come into relief. And interestingly, best result may be to simply keep the 6-man rotation for the playoffs, and simply double-up on your "productive throwers" -- thereby further deepening your bullpen while simultaneously freeing up roster space for that extra bat. (After all, the Mets are likely to carry all six pitchers for the playoffs anyway, so why not just leave Mota at home?)
But the biggest advantage of the six-man rotation with productive throwing is one of economics. At the end of the day, most back-of-the-rotation starters are going to be better than bullpen fillers. That's demonstrably true, as a lot of bullpen filler consists of former starters who can no longer cut it as a starter. (See Aaron Sele, Ron Villone, Dennys Reyes, Joel Pineiro, etc.) Most sixth starters are going to be better than the fifth through seventh guys out of your bullpen. However, because they're going to be either (a) begging for a starting job or (b) young, they'll probably be cheap. And they eat up the innings taken by one and a half other players, so you end up having to invest no money in the last bullpen guy (he's replaced entirely) and need to invest less in the other guy who is half-replaced.
All-in-all, this seems like a much more sensible situation than the current five-man, wasted throwing rotations that we see on all 30 teams. While I doubt any team will employ it anytime soon, I'd love to see it done by the 2007 Mets upon Pedro's return.
Freddy Garcia and Jon Leiber started the season on the DL. Leibe returned to the bullpen. Garcia returned. Brent Myers then replaced Leiber in the pen, and became the Phils closer when Gordon went on the DL. This lasted a month before Myers himself landed on the DL. Both Gordon and Myers are expected back this weekend. Myers is expected to remain in the pen.
Garcia was awful and returned to the DL 2 weeks ago. His shoulder is pretty much shot. It is unlikely that Garcia will pitch again this season, or ever.
Leiber went on the DL last week after blowing out a tendon in his foot. He is not expected back for at least 3 months. So his season is likely over.
Hence, I would not start talking up a 6 man rotation with a pitcher coming off an injury - Pedro in this case, and a pitcher being traded from the White Sox, if I were you. :)