The Leo Mazzone Non-Factor: A Second Look
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by user Timothy Moreland(Bball3345)
In early June, I took a look at the immediate effects of Mazzone on the Baltimore Orioles pitching staff. The results were not promising; however, it was still too early, and arguably still is too early to make a call. I will take a look at the O's top four starters to see if the new guru in the bullpen assisted them in a noticeable way this season.
Kris Benson
Benson declined in almost every facet of the game this season. His K/9 dropped from 4.9 last season to 4.33. As well, his control was off, as his BB/9 increased from 2.53 to 2.85. The home run ball also hurt him moreso this season with a HR/9 up from 1.24 to 1.62. As one would expect, his ERA rose, climbing from 4.13 to 4.82.
At first glance, one would assume Benson saw a huge decline in Baltimore this year. Actually, his season was no worse than 2005 with the Mets. A change in leagues and ballparks must also be factored for, which accounts for most of the change in the mentioned peripheral stats. After making these adjustments, Benson pitched slightly worse, but nothing unique for a pitcher in his thirties. Mazzone did not appear to have any effect on Benson, positive or negative.
Daniel Cabrera
As mentioned in the previous article, Cabrera appeared to be one slight improvement in control from becoming a star. Unfortunately, this never happened for Cabrera in 2006. He actually carried his early gains in strikeout rate and HR rate throughout the season. At the end of the year, Cabrera's K/9 had reached 9.55 and his HR/9 had fallen to 0.67, both worthy of a star. Unfortunately, his already weak 4.85 BB/9 ballooned to 6.32, offsetting the other gains. As a result, his ERA rose slightly from 4.52 to 4.74.
By no means is Cabrera a liability to the O's staff. In fact, Cabrera is about a league-average pitcher. He still remains one skill set away from becoming an absolute ace.
Erik Bedard
Bedard was, like Cabrera, just a reduction in walk rate away from becoming an ace. Unlike Cabrera, Bedard made the leap in 2006. His BB/9 dropped from 3.62 to 3.16. Oddly, his yearly numbers in K/9 and HR/9 were worse in 2006 than in 2005. Bedard sacrificed a little from his dominance (7.94 K/9 to 7.84 K/9) and his ability to keep the ball in the park (0.64 HR/9 to 0.73 HR/9) to lower his walk rate. Subsequently, Bedard saw a drop in ERA from 4.00 to 3.76, while winning 15 games. Bedard was especially hot after the All-Star break, posting a 3.10 ERA. Make sure to grab him in your Fantasy Leagues next year.
Bedard had begun his improvement last season, before Mazzone arrived; therefore, it is hard to determine if this was a natural improvement or the works of a genius.
Adam Loewen
Loewen bumped the underachieving Bruce Chen out of the rotation in June. His peripheral stats were eerily familiar to the other young arms in the rotation. His K/9 was solid (7.85), as was his HR/9 (0.64). Unfortunately, his BB/9 was disgusting, at 4.97. Mazzone has to find a way to improve the control among his starters. Loewen, overall, had a solid rookie campaign, aside from some bad luck. His batting average on balls in play was rather high at .320. As a result, his ERA of 5.37 was likely due to some bad defense. Loewen's FIP (Fielding-Independent Pitching) was a much better 4.25.
Mazzone did not appear to have any effect on what one would have expected to happen in the O's rotation this season. He does have a plethora of chances to make his presence known by cutting the walk rate of the young guns.
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