The Leo Mazzone Non-Factor

As a Braves fan, I am fully aware of the research performed to prove the positive effect Leo Mazzone has had on the Braves ERA over the past decade or so. It seemed as if losing him this offseason would be the end of Atlanta’s pitching dominance. The team’s pitching staff he has taken over, Baltimore, came into the season with pitchers at prime ages. No one on the starting five was over 31 or under 24-years-old. So, let us check how Mazzone has helped to blossom, or not blossom, these youngsters.

Kris Benson

Benson, the oldest of the group, was understood to be the ace of this staff. As a former top prospect for the Pirates, he was coming off of a solid, while not ace-material, season with the Mets in 2005. In 174.3 innings, Benson recorded a 4.13 ERA; however, his K/9 (4.91) was down and the homerun ball stung him at times. These two facets of the game were both positives for Benson back in 2000, prior to his Tommy John's surgery.

So far in 2006, these weaknesses have remained and another has been added, as his ERA has increased from 4.13 to 4.77. Benson’s dominance has continued the downward trend (4.27 K/9); although, it is not as bad when the league change is factored in. Due to the pitcher batting in the NL, strikeouts are easier to come by. The real issue has been a jump in walks (2.53 BB/9 to 3.26 BB/9). Overall, it appears as if Benson’s performance this year has been about what should be expected from him. The changes in his peripheral stats can be largely accounted for by his change in leagues and age.

Daniel Cabrera

This was the pitcher who Mazzone was supposed to push into stardom. As a 24-year-old last year, Cabrera struck out 8.76 per nine innings and kept the ball from going over the fence (0.78 HR/9). So how does one explain a 4.52 ERA? Well, Cabrera allowed free passes at a rapid pace with a 4.85 BB/9 rate. All Mazzone had to do for 2006 was help Cabrera find the strike zone more consistently and he would be the next John Smoltz.

Cabrera has actually improved in every area of his game, except walks. His previously strong K rate has moved into elite territory (10.11 K/9), he has let up only one HR in 46.3 innings, and he has been less hittable, dropping his H/9 from 8.03 to 7.00. Unfortunately, his ERA has remained virtually unchanged at 4.66, slightly higher than last season. Again, looking at his walk rate explains how. The poor 4.85 per nine has become just plain ugly at 8.55 BB/9. Walking almost one guy every inning is not the recipe for success. With the improvement in his other peripherals, Cabrera remains on the brink of stardom, if only Mazzone can find the trick to cut Cabrera’s walks.

Erik Bedard

Like Cabrera, Bedard sat on the border of stardom, needing only a decrease in his walks. Strikeouts were the main strength for Bedard in 2005, with a 7.94 K/9. Also, he let up only 0.64 HR/9, even better than Cabrera. Bedard had posted a 4.00 ERA in 2005 and his BB/9 was 3.62, not quite as ugly as Cabrera. It appeared as if Mazzone would have an easier time taking Bedard to the next level than Cabrera.

Mazzone seemed to have the exact opposite effect on Bedard than he did on Cabrera. While Cabrera improved everywhere but walks, Bedard declined everywhere, while his walks remained relatively similar. Bedard’s strong K rate has dropped to nothing more than average (5.40 K.9), he has allowed only one less HR in 12 starts than he did in 24 last year, and has become more hittable (8.83 to 11.23 H/9). Overall, he has followed up his 4.00 ERA with a 5.97 so far in 2006.

Rodrigo Lopez

In 2002 and 2004, Lopez showed how useful a pitcher he could be. In those seasons, he posted ERAs of 3.57 and 3.59, respectively. As good as those seasons were, the years in between were forgettable. In 2003, Lopez posted a 5.82 ERA and then a 4.90 last season. His peripherals were virtually the same, except for the number of hits allowed. A below average K rate around 5.0 every year means his ERA is largely based on the play of his defense and some luck. In 2002 and 2004, luck was on his side with batting averages on balls in play of .259 and .281, respectively. 2003 was a different story, as his BABIP was an astronomical .347.

As for 2006, his K rate has remained the same, but, like the years in which he struggles, Lopez has been hittable once again(10.98 H/9 with a .309 BABIP). What has really hurt him is the number of hits that have gone over the fence. After struggling with a 1.20 HR/9 last year, it has become unbearable at 1.72. If Mazzone cannot find a way to solve Lopez’s problems, then the Orioles will have to sit back and hope the defense can get to the ball like in 2002 and 2004.

Bruce Chen

Here is a man Mazzone is familiar with. Chen came up with Atlanta in 1998, posting a 3.98 ERA in 4 starts as a 21-year-old. Fast forward eight years and Chen is now on his eighth major league team, sporting a 4.49 career ERA. Last year, his second with Baltimore, Chen had a nice 3.83 ERA. Similar to Lopez, luck plays a leading role in Chen’s ERA. With an average K and BB rate, his success depends on what happens when batters put the ball in play. Last year, he overcame his high 1.51 HR/9 with a low .262 BABIP.

It appears as if his luck has run out. This season, batters have a .344 BABIP and are knocking the ball out left and right (3.12 HR/9…ouch). Rookie Adam Loewen has probably taken Chen’s spot in the rotation for the time being. Loewen looks to be along the same lines as Cabrera and Bedard, a pitcher who has the stuff of a star, but walks too many batters for his own good.

Wild Pitches

No, this is not the name of the next promising Oriole starter. An interesting pattern has shown up in the early season with wild pitches. Last year, the five pitchers in this article threw 24 WPs in 884 innings, or .24 WP/9. This year, the same five have already thrown 18 WPs in only 309 innings, or .52 WP/9. I don’t know what it means, but it can’t be good.

Although too early to tell for sure, not one starting pitcher has improved this year upon Mazzone’s arrival. Benson looks the same, Cabrera’s control has gotten even worse, Bedard can’t do anything right, Lopez is having an unlucky year, and Chen has lost his spot in the rotation. Maybe the call to enshrine Mazzone in Cooperstown was a tad premature or maybe he will right this ship by the end of the season.