The LeBron Factor
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by user JuTMSY4
Recently JoshKross and I had a disagreement over the ratings, the effect of New York and the value of starpower in the NHL and sports in general (Namely the NBA). This evolved into a debate over the NBA Finals featuring Lebron James’s Cleveland Cavaliers and Tim Duncan and the San Antonio Spurs. My assertion being that Lebron will help increase ratings for the finals, while JoshKross has suggested that the finals need a big market appeal to draw ratings. Namely JoshKross’s thought is that in order for the ratings to increase, a city with sheer numbers (i.e. large population) needs to be involved and that interest in the sport is essentially irrelevant in that when a team is good, casual fans will be the masses that come.
False Prophet, using the overplayed example of Minnesota, contended that a smaller fan base of loyal and interested fans (Minneapolis now being a bad example, hockey-wise), said that the probable 4 million fans from a Minnesota Wild finals appearance is more appealing than the potential 15 million fan flow (of casual fans, mostly) from a New York Rangers or maybe New York Islanders appearance. I admitted that a big market needed to be involved, but it doesn’t necessarily need to be the city of New York. Cities such as Chicago, Philadelphia, and Boston (and possibly Dallas, which seemed to react well in 1999) need to be involved, as well as Canadian favorites like Toronto, Montreal, Edmonton and Calgary. I’m not saying New York would be worse, just that other cities would help just as much. Starpower, such as Sid the Kid, Sidney Crosby, also should be involved, and JoshKross even evidenced the $100 million dollar bonus Lebron James would receive from Nike should he go to the Knicks. This type of bonus suggests the value of being in the big city (and yet I still do not fully understand why) is marketable for an apparel company, and will be for the league. (For reference, I’m not saying the Pittsburgh Penguins should be involved, just Crosby).
This leads us to the challenge (If anyone knows where the feature is now, please let me know, so it can be “official”). From 1982 until 1998 (Thanks D21Dubs) the NBA experienced a steady increase in ratings for the NBA finals. The thought here being that both Starpower, (Michael Jordan, Larry Bird, and Magic Johnson) and large cities being involved (Chicago, Boston and Los Angeles, and strangely not major NY presence) resulting in ratings that peaked in 1998 at 18.7. Major dips in that time include the 1990 Detroit Pistons vs. Portland Trailblazers and both Houston Rockets runs. Highs included the finals involving the aforementioned Boston, Los Angeles and Chicago. After 1998 and the retirement of Michael Jordan the finals experienced a sharp decline during the San Antonio Spurs and Los Angeles Lakers runs. The lowest point being the Spurs and New Jersey Nets final in 2003. One can note that the presence of the New York Knicks in 1999 didn’t improve the finals at all nor did the Lakers or Philadelphia 76ers in 2000, which is further proves my point about New York and leads me to believe Star Power is ratings power.
To the point, my thought is that Star Power is the most important, whereas JoshKross believes a city is clearly where the ratings value is. I’m not denying the marketability, but I believe that if Lebron makes it, they will come. The bet is, if the NBA Finals have an overall rating of 10.2 of higher, the JoshKross must write an article praising all that his holy in Philadelphia Sports. Should the ratings continue the way of the last two years, with ratings below 10.2, then I must write an article about the sports Mecca that is New York City.
And why 10.2 you ask. 10.2 is the last year a large city was featured in the finals. The hope here being that we can avoid the general decline in NBA finals watching that is the result of other possible and mitigating factors. And so with that, we can witness if the “Lebron Factor” is a real factor
