The Landscape, Part Deux
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It's Thursday which means that its one day away from being one day away from another massive Saturday of college football. One day away from being one day away from the National Title landscape taking shape. Despite the Phoenix Suns being on right now (against Kevin Durant, no less), I think I can channel some genius into this week's picks (the true definition of "genius" is up for artistic interpretation). So here goes nothing, and for the sake of competition, hopefully there won't be anyone doing their best Smith Center High impressions...
#21 Wisconsin @ #1 Ohio State
Ohio State is due to play a bad game in conference and Wisconsin has plenty of talent. The problem is that the Badgers haven't played up to their potential for much of the season and have had some issues putting points on the board, but they put a beating on the upstart Indiana Hoosiers last week, so they have a bit of momentum. P.J. Hill's health is the key to Wisconsin's chances of pulling the upset. Leg problems on big, bruising running backs concern me and Ohio State's defense has great upperclassman leading it. Its that defense rattling Badger QB Tyler Donovan that will be the difference.
Wisconsin 10, Ohio State 27
#24 Wake Forest @ #23 Virginia
Al Groh has Virginia on a roll this year, but their loss to N.C. State last week was a major disappointment. Wake started slow, but hasn't lost since week 2, including wins over a pretty good Maryland squad, Florida State and a solid Navy team. Wake has a disciplined defense that doesn't find themselves out of position too often, perfect for containing an athletic quarterback like Jameel Sewell. The Cavaliers also have way more injuries than the Deacons, so I'm taking the the momentum, defense and health of Wake.
Wake Forest 27, Virginia 17
Navy @ Notre Dame
Normally, there would be no reason to pay attention to this one since the Irish have owned Navy. Of course, Notre Dame wasn't ever 1-7 during their domination over the Midshipmen, and Navy has shown they can run the ball on just about anyone this season. Navy' ability to control the clock and Notre Dame's dreadful offense are the keys to this game.
Navy 31, Notre Dame 27
#15 Texas @ Oklahoma State
The Longhorns have not played well in Stillwater recently and have had to rely on some of the program's greatest comebacks to win the last few trips. Memo to the 'Horns: Vince Young ain't walkin' through that door. Cowboy QB Zac Robinson isn't turning the ball over as frequently as Colt McCoy has and McCoy's biggest target, Limas Sweed, is out with a wrist injury. Texas has played fairly uninspired this season and if they play that way again, they could very well fall in Stillwater.
Texas 35, Oklahoma State 38
Cincinnati @ #18 South Florida
The Bulls have become hamburger meat since losing at Rutgers two weeks ago. Cincinnati has also floundered since a hot start landed them a top 25 ranking. This game will be the salvation of someone's season. Expect homefield to be the advantage for USF and Matt Grothe will play well to overcome some of the injuries that have hit the Bulls.
Cincinnati 20, South Florida 28
#3 LSU @ #17 Alabama
This one is the only one I have any passion for, naturally. The suspension of Ryan Perrilloux excited me because Alabama has traditionally had trouble with mobile quarterbacks, even though Matt Flynn gets the majority of the snaps. Although 'Bama is missing two starters on the offensive line, the backups combined with the other three starters to play the best game I've seen a Tide offensive line play since dominating Florida in '05. The biggest factor to figure in when projecting how well they will play this week will be the health of Glen Dorsey. Dorsey has had trouble with his knee since getting (cheaply) chop blocked against Auburn two weeks ago. If Dorsey is still having problems, the LSU defense won't be the same. The next biggest key to Alabama's offense will be the play of John Parker Wilson. If he doesn't make mistakes, Alabama's offense clicks and puts big points on the board (See: Third Saturday in October), but when he does trouble is in store for the entire offense (See: The River City Shootout). LSU's secondary has been solid all year, but Auburn proved two weeks ago in Baton Rouge that creative playcalling can do wonders against the Bayou Bengals. The final factor in this game is coaching. I'm not to worried about the whole Saban-against-his-old-team jibber jabber. The coaching that concerns me the most is Les Miles. The Mad Hatter has proven to be just that, mad. Sooner or later, one of his riverboat-gambler decisions could very well come back to bite the Tigers. With 19 players that he recruited still on the team, Saban knows LSU's personnel. What has been lost in all of this is that outside of the 19 he signed, some of the players Miles signed in his first year were guys that committed to Saban in the first place, meaning Slick Nick has an even better understanding of the upperclass personnel on the field for LSU. The last thing you want to give a coach like Saban is a solid understanding of the strengths and weaknesses of your personnel. I've got a good feeling about this one...
LSU 23, Alabama 24
#4 Arizona State @ #5 Oregon
The Sun Devils' win over Cal last week wasn't as impressive as it might seem, since the Golden Bears have imploded since taking over the #2 ranking. Oregon is coming off an impressive victory over a very talented USC team and their offense cannot be stopped. Dennis Dixon and Jonathan Stewart are the difference over an injured Rudy Carpenter.
Arizona State 24, Oregon 48
Rutgers @ #13 Connecticut
UConn has been the beneficiary of some bad calls and poor weather lately. Rutgers has something that neither of the Huskies' last two opponents had: Ray Rice. Rice will dominate the UConn defense and Greg Schiano's defense will swarm all over the Husky offense.
Rutgers 31, Connecticut 10
Florida State @ #2 Boston College
The Seminoles are in shambles right now with suspensions and injuries tearing the team apart. Matt Ryan has played a great season, minutes the first 57 minutes against Virgina Tech. But hey, its getting the W that counts, right? Teamwork and homefield wins it for the Eagles.
Florida State 20, Boston College 28
South Carolina @ Arkansas
Steve Spurrier is known for his passing attack, but its his duo of running backs that have dazzled this season. As good as Cory Boyd and Mike West have been, the Razorbacks' dynamic duo is, well, more dynamic. No one but Auburn has kept Darren McFadden and Felix Jones in check, and South Carolina is not exactly Auburn. Casey Dick might be the conference's worst quarterback, so the possibility of him missing this game with a concussion might actually help the Arkansas offense. McFadden will score twice and Jones once, but I'll take Darth Visor and company to bounce back from a heart breaker on Rocky Top.
South Carolina 24, Arkansas 21
College football has been nuts this year, more so than I can ever remember. This week could very well be the biggest week in the BCS scene taking shape. A top 5 team is guaranteed to fall and the top 3 teams have major tests in front of them. Stay tuned boys and girls! I'm out like Grady Little's career as a manager.
Much Love
