The Hundred Million Dollar Man
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by Tyduffy
ESPN, and other media outlets, are reporting that Mariners' CF Ichiro Suzuki is close to agreeing to a 5 year contract extension worth approximately $100 million. The $20 million per season deal would keep him off the free agent market when his current 4 year $41 million contract expires at the end of this season. That contract would make the Japanese star one of the highest paid players in baseball, but is he really worth it?
Ichiro has been the most successful major league import from Japan, since he burst onto the scene in 2001. In that year, he became only the second player to win both the Rookie of the Year and the MVP in the same year. He has hit over .300 and stolen more than 30 bases in each of his first six seasons. He also has had over 200 hits every year (including a Major League Record 262 in 2004), and has finished 1st or 2nd in that category in every Major League season. He has been an All-Star selection every year, and has won six straight gold-gloves in either right or center field. He has quite an impressive, and, indeed, Hall of Fame worthy (if voters have some sense) resume if voters have some sense.
However, his numbers are also a bit deceptive. He is routinely among the leaders in .OBP (.410 this season), but this is entirely due to his high batting average rather than patience as a hitter, which one would desire from a leadoff man. He has only managed above 50 walks in a season once. He has had three seasons with under .800 OPS and never higher than .870 in a season. His numbers are pretty gaudy at .359 BA and a .410 OBP, but is that really that much better than say Kenny Lofton who is hitting 60 pts lower at .301 but has a .386 OBP, particularly when Lofton gets paid only $6 million per season. Is it not then conceivable that about 85%-90% of his offensive production could be replaced with a player who costs 1/3 as much in salary?
There are also a number of caveats that Seattle should consider with Ichiro. He often gets credit as being an indespensable catalyst who creates havoc blah...blah...blah. But, if he is creating so much havoc, why has Seattle finished last or next to last in runs scored the last three seasons? In his best year in 2004, Seattle finished dead last. He is a known commodity. The Mariners know what kind of affect he has on the lineup. They are offering him game changer money, for what doesn't exactly appear to be a game changing performance.
Another worry should definitely be his age. He will be 34 at the start of next season, which means he will be almost 40 at the end of his contract. He may keep himself in great shape, but he is not going to be in the prime of his career. The main facets of his game (his slap-hitting, his base-running, and his defensive acumen) are all predicated upon speed. Nature will take its course at some point, and when he is pushing 40 his speed will start to slip and not allow him to beat out as many ground balls. If his average drops to the .300-.320 range moving his OBP into the .350-.370 range, is that really worth it for a $20 million per season leadoff man?
The Mariners should also consider who they are realistically going to be bidding against for his services, should he hit free agency. He almost assuredly would stay on the West Coast, except for MAYBE a move to Boston or New York. Oakland wouldn't be able to match financially. So that would leave Boston, New York, and the Angels in the AL, along with San Diego, San Francisco, and the Dodgers.
Boston already has an albatross of a contract in Right Field with J.D. Drew and a great CF prospect Ellsbury whom they hope will take over next year. If Steinbrenner was still with it, New York would probably target him, but they wan't to get younger and cheaper. The last thing they wan't is another outfielder on the Back 9 of his career in his mid 30's. Realistically, that list would then have to be narrowed down to the two LA teams, San Diego, and the Giants.
He would probably be a great fit in San Diego, but do they have the money or the inkling to really make a big play for him? The Angels might like him, but they still have Gary Matthews Jr. and Vlad Guerrero tied up to huge contracts in Center and Right. They will also be pushing hard for Alex Rodriguez and may not have the cash to make another splash with Ichiro. The Giants are going to need a power hitter to replace Bonds and will also be chasing A-Rod. The Dodgers have a lot of money tied up with a leadoff man in Furcal and will also likely be chasing A-Rod. Are any of those clubs seriously going to make a huge offer to Ichiro in the $100 million range? Probably Not. The Mariners are bidding against themselves.
Ichiro is a good guy, a very good player, and a fan favorite. He is comfortable in Seattle, and it is probably better for both player and club if he stays in a Mariners' uniform. However, he does not produce enough to warrant a $100 million contract. The goal should be to win a World Series, and the Mariners are going to pay a lot of money to not get any closer to that happening. For an organization that was too cheap to keep Ken Griffey Jr. and Alex Rodriguez as they moved into their prime, overpaying an aging Ichiro is absolutely absurd.
