The Hoch's Thursday Breakdown - Week 5
| 11
|
from http://afraidofedhochuli.blogspot.com
This is a terrible week to try and break down. Why? Because most of the games are a “Winning Team” VS a “Losing Team” or a couple losing teams…could have been good with CAR @ NO or CHI @ GB but now a lot of the big teams have losing records and larger problems on the horizon. I already did a Seattle game, so I won’t do that…so I will do…
Really is this an away game for the Jets? I mean, they play in the same stadium; home-field advantage will NOT come in to play this week. This is going to be an interesting match-up. If you had asked me at the beginning of the season I would have shrugged, but now it is going to be fascinating. You have an Offense for the Jets that is starting to get rolling (after a few years of futility) going up against a Defense for the Giants that has really started to come in to their own.
NY Jets Offense.
Run:
Thomas Jones is NOT Curtis Martin, but the addition of him will assist the growth of Leon Washington who is a great change-of-pace back. It is a massive upgrade from the platoon of Washington Cedric Houston and Kevan Barlow from 2006. They also have a future star at LT in D'Brickashaw Ferguson and a very good Center in Nick Mangold. According to Scouts Inc.: “[Ferguson] wins with athleticism, size (length), proper angles, intelligence and toughness” and “Mangold is smart, instinctive, tough and rarely struggled in the middle of the offensive line where all the action begins.”
The Jets rank 28th in the league with 330 total rush yards, which will prove to be a weakness this week as they go against the Giants D. The Giants rank 16th in the league in rush yards allowed; allowing a total of 421 over 4 weeks. (105.25/game). Their recent games give us a bit of a trend: that against a decent running back, they can be had. They allowed: Week 1 (Dallas): 142 rush yards Week 2 (Green Bay): 83 rush yards Week 3 (Washington): 82 rush yards Week 4 (Philadelphia): 114 rush yards Dallas has good backs and Philly did a good job of opening holes. But GB has no run game. Period. WAS has no pass game, so they could focus on the run. The Jets may be in for a long day.
Advantage: Giants (0-1)
Pass:
Ferguson will need to have a great day and hope that Osi Umenyiora is tired from his amazing game on Sunday night where he assaulted Eagles LT Winston Justice. Mangini may need to bring in a TE to help (something that Philly should have done).
Has anyone noticed what Chad Pennington's passer rating is? 105.8…holy crap…yes he sat one game because of injury, but came back with a strong showing against Miami and a decent one in a loss to Buffalo. He has Laveranues Coles and Jerricho Cotchery to throw to. Coles ranks 4th in the league in TD receptions with 4 and Cotchery is 4th in reception yards with 383. They are a dangerous tandem.
The Giants are giving up 239.8 yards through the air (Ranking them 17th). The Corners are solid with Sam Madison, Aaron Ross and R.W. McQuarters with 4, 3 and 1 passes defended respectively. The problem is that Safety Gibril Wilson is the only player on the team with an Interception (2).
Advantage: Giants (1-1)
Offensive Line:
I have covered this in the other sections but I will delve deeper. The Giants are tied for 1st in the league with 16 sacks. However, that was also after recording 12 against a destroyed Eagles line. I REALLY do not see that happening again. Seeing as how the Jets O-Line has done decently, only allowing 11 in the season which ties for 25th. That may seem like a big number for the sacks allowed ranking, but think that 32nd (DET) has allowed 22. I can’t really tell you that this will be an advantage to either, but if Osi lights it up…well…I’ll just leave it at that.
Advantage: Push (1-1-1)
NY Giants Offense
Run: Giants are ranked 19th in the league in RY/G with 99.3 This is quite a feat seeing as how their projected starter Brandon Jacobs has missed the last 3 games with an injury. His backup, however has done a fantastic job of coming in and running hard. Derrick Ward, a 4 year veteran, finally has had a chance to show his ability and has rushed 73 times for 353 yards (4.8 AVG). That bodes well for this offense when Jacobs makes his return.
The Jets allow 112.5 yards per game on the ground, which is good enough to put them smack dab in the middle at a 19 ranking. They allowed: Week 1 (NE): 134 rush yards Week 2 (BAL): 118 rush yards Week 3 (MIA): 112 rush yards Week 4 (BUF): 86 rush yards So arguably, they have gotten better, but have also faced progressively worse backs, and if Jacobs is back, the two pronged attack of Jacobs and Ward will run the Jets into the ground.
Advantage: Giants (1-2-1)
Pass:
Eli Manning has started to step up as a leader on this team. He still has a long way to go, and could still grow as a passer (81.9 rating, 59.8% and 7 TD to 5 INT) but he definitely has the pieces to do that. Plaxico Burress has 6 TDs on the season (Ward has Manning’s one other), Amani Toomer has been a solid #2 this year, and Jeremy Shockey is a productive TE. The question is: How long can Manning stand up to the pressure cooker that is New York?
Like the Giants, the Jets D only has 2 INT’s; one by SS Kerry Rhodes and one by Nickel-back Andre Dyson. The D as a whole though has given up an average of 258.5 yards through the air (27th) and will have a tough match up against the height inclined Giants. Burress is 6-5, 232 lbs while Toomer is 6-3, 203 lbs. The Jets CBs? First Round pick Darrelle Revis is 5-11, 204 lbs and his counterpart David Barrett is 5-10, 195 lbs. This is a match up that is highly in favor of the Giants WRs.
Advantage: Giants (1-3-1)
Offensive Line:
This is a great Offensive line. They are T-9th in sacks allowed with only 6 and will cause some major issues for the anemic blitz defense of the Jets. They have 3 on the season. Which, as you may have guessed, is in the top 3 WORST in the NFL. The Giants will OWN the trenches.
Advantage: Giants (1-4-1)
Special Teams: (Not Scored)
Kickers: Mike Nugent is 3/5 this season. The misses being from less then 40 and 50+. Last season he was 24-27. Lawrence Tynes is 7/9 this season. The misses being from less then 40. Last season he was 24-31.
Punters: Ben Graham is averaging 41.9 yards per kick this season; 44.2 yards last season. Jeff Feagles (The Immortal one) is averaging 39.9 yards per kick this season; 40.2 yards last season.
Advantage: Jets
The breakdown says that the Giants will mop the floor with the Jets, but as my associate “Mr. Met” has informed me (also a Jets fan) the Jets will win this game because they are playing the HATED Giants. I don’t think that is the reason, but I do look at the match up and see the Giants losing this one. According to Pro Football Reference the Jets trail the all-time series 4-6. I see the Jets pulling this one out. Barely.
Prediction: NYJ 20, NYG 17
