The Hoch's Thursday Breakdown - Week 4
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from http://afraidofedhochuli.blogspot.com
I know it is late. I know that this is my “Thursday Breakdown” and that it is now Friday, but come on people I was BUSY. Sheesh… I was really close on my score last week. I was only off by a few points. And again I choose a game that I think will be close. The Rules again are: I will NOT compare the same positions. So no Offensive Line VS Offensive Line. It will be Offensive Line VS Defensive Line. ROLL OUT!
Week 4: Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings
Defense vs. Defense. Green Bay is 15th overall (324.0 ya/g), 10th against the run (90.0 ya/g) and 15th against the pass (234.0 ya/g). The Vikes aren’t to shabby themselves coming in at number 11th overall (310.3 ya/g), 3rd against the run (67.3 ya/g) but 20th against the pass (243.0 ya/g).
For me this is what will happen: Favre will throw all day. Why? They haven’t gotten the run game going and why try this week against number 3? Just let the ageless one set and then re-set the TD record.
Green Bay Offense
Run: Do we know who is starting? No, you might know the name, but do you KNOW him? Here is the problem: their rookie ( Brandon Jackson) has been performing below expected with only 97 yards in 3 games. His backup ( DeShawn Wynn) is another rookie and has been battling an injury and has racked up a whopping (*sarcasm*) 67 yards on the season.
Minnesota is HUGE at the Defensive line. Kevin Williams (6’5” 311 lbs) and Pat Williams (6’3” 317 lbs) block up the running lanes giving the talented linebacking core of Chad Greenway, E.J. Henderson and Ben Leber time to get to the ball-carrier. Greenway leads the team with 25 tackles, Henderson is 4th with 20 and Leber is 6th with 13. These guys can get there.
Advantage: Minnesota (0-1)
Pass: As already pointed out, the Vikings are 20th against the pass. Green Bay is Ranked 6th in Pass Offense (272.3 y/g). Hmmm…what will happen? Minnesota is tied for 4th with 5 interceptions and 5th in forced fumbles with 5. There is a lot of emotion on the Packer’s Offense though with Brett Favre throwing it to Donald Driver and one of his new favorite targets Greg Jennings. Favre says he doesn’t care about Marino’s record, but when you grow up and you breathe football, you want to be the best. Favre wants to be the best. He will be when it is all said and done.
Advantage: Green Bay (1-1)
Offensive Line: Green Bay’s line is filled with people you don’t know. They have allowed 7 sacks (only 8 QBs have hit the ground more). And again, they are going up against the Williamses and DE Kenechi Udeze who seems to finally be settling into his own.
If Minnesota can get pressure, this may be a long day for Packer Fans.
Advantage: Minnesota (1-2)
Minnesota Offense
Run: I know who the Rookie of the Year is going to be, and really, everyone should. Adrian Peterson is quickly creating one of the best rookie seasons by a running back. He is tied for 10th in the league with 271 rush yards and is averaging 53.3 Reception yards a game. He has become a force in the Offense.
They will need to use him in the pass game since that is Green Bay’s weakness. They will clog the line all day to take away the run game and force the Vikes to throw. However, Adrian Peterson may be able to break out since they gave up 131 total yards to Brian Westbrook, 125 total yards to Derrick Ward and 95 to LaDainian Tomlinson.
Advantage: Minnesota (1-3)
Pass: Kelly Holcomb is starting for the injured Tarvaris Jackson. Holcomb played last week and was sacked FIVE times. He has a career rating of 79.5 on 64.1% passing. The telling number: his touchdown to interception ratio; 1.1. He has 37 career TDs and 37 career INTs.
Advantage: Green Bay (2-3)
Offensive Line:
This is a very good Offensive Line between LT Bryant McKinnie, LG Steve Hutchinson and C Matt Birk, but They have allowed TOO many sacks; 7 so far. Now that is not terrible, but 5 last week is not a good sign. Jackson is much more mobile the Holcomb and the line needs to be aware that they will need to protect for longer. If they can not protect him then they will lose the battle of field position, which could be detrimental in a game I am predicting to be somewhat low scoring.
Lucky for Minnesota, the pack ranks 21st in Sacks, only racking up 5 (Per ESPN.com). Hopefully they won’t have 10 at the end of this game. (Per NFL.com this total is 7 which ties MIN. However my point is that with Holcomb this might be an issue.)
Advantage: Green Bay (3-3)
Special Teams: (Not Scored)
Kickers: Ryan Longwell is 3-4 this season. The miss being from 50+. Last season he was 21-25. Mason Crosby is 4-5 with a long of 53. He is a rookie with one miss from 40-49 yards.
Punters: Chris Kluwe is averaging 47.2 yards per kick this season; 42.3 yards last season. Jon Ryan is averaging 40.5 yards per kick this season; 44.5 yards last season.
This is a Push at 3-3
The Numbers say that this game will be close, and honestly, I would have to agree. You have 2 division rivals meeting for the first time this season, an HOF QB trying to break a record and a sure candidate for the ROY award.
To steal a phrase from “J.R.” Jim Ross, “This is gonna be a good, ole-fashioned slobber knocker.”
Prediction: GB 17, MIN 10
