The Football Fanatic's Guide to the AFC East
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by Nejoshi
As seen on The Sports Lounge
Preseason football is in full swing, and the onset of some pigskin action has motivated to come up with my set of predictions for the upcoming season. After all, everyone has to have their own NFL preview with their thoughts right? Until the season finally kicks off, everyone’s projections are 100% correct, and that’s what makes both writing and reading things great. It’s time for the football’s fanatic’s guide to the NFL Season.
Today, I will begin in the AFC East, a division that has been owned by the New England Patriots to the tune of four straight division titles. The other three teams haven’t been anywhere close during that four-year stretch as New England’s 50-14 (78%) record is 20 games better than the second best team in the division over that span.
- Buffalo Bills
- Head Coach: Dick Jauron
- 2006: 7-9, 3rd AFC East
Offensively, Buffalo has a reason to be optimistic. Quarterback J.P. Losman made evident strides during the back end of last year and has developed quite a rapport with Lee Evans. Those two carried the offense through long stretches, and after losing the overrated Willis McGahee to free agency, they have replaced him with Marshawn Lynch, one of the most highly rated rookies. This trio, with time and continued improvement from Losman, has the potential to form a pretty stout offense for years to come.
The problems start to accumulate for this team on the defensive end where they must account for the losses of Nate Clements and London Fletcher, two men who cashed in pretty nicely from free agency. Takeo Spikes was traded, leaving many question marks on the defensive end of the ball. The offense has potential, but it can’t carry this team on its shoulders; the Bills will need some help from a suspect defense in order to contend for a playoff spot as long as they did last year.
The early season schedule is treacherous, with five games against playoff teams from a season ago in the first eight weeks. The other two games are from gimmies, a home date with the Broncos on opening day, and a road encounter with the Steelers. Lynch will need time to assimilate to the NFL and the defense will struggle while developing chemistry. Buffalo will struggle, and fail to match its surprising 7 win total from a year ago
Prediction: 5-11 (the schedule is just that difficult)
- Miami Dolphins
- Head Coach: Cam Cameron
- 2006: 6-10, 4th AFC East
Once again, the Dolphins gave themselves a face-lift at the top, bringing in Trent Green to take the job that Daunte Culpepper screwed up. Miami was a disaster last season; many expected the Dolphins to compete for a playoff spot – SI had them in the Super Bowl – but this year, hopefully the fans have learned their lesson and tempered their expectations. That’s because this team is still only mediocre. Green isn’t going to help this team as much as people think, and the defense is only getting older and more vulnerable.
Chris Chambers and Ronnie Brown were only middle of the pack performers in 2006 and there’s no reason to expect a spike in their numbers now. Chambers might be subject to some improvement with Green at the helm, but the bigger question is the offensive line. They made Culpepper look like a sitting duck, and anyone that believes Green has enough mobility to mask their shortcomings in that department is crazy.
The Dolphins need to cash in on games against the Raiders, Texans, and Browns early in the season because the December slate features games with the Jets, Bills, Ravens, Patriots, and Bengals. Miami will not be as pathetic on offense, but they haven’t quite become a playoff contender yet.
Prediction: 7-9
- New England Patriots
- Head Coach: Bill Belichick
- 2006: 12-4, AFC East Champions, Lost 38-34 to Colts in AFC Championship
The Patriots were subject to more criticism last season than I could remember ever since their first Super Bowl winning season six years ago. Forced to take the back seat to Baltimore, San Diego, and Indianapolis for most of the regular season, New England did everything they could to quiet the doubters with their play in January. Two impressive playoff wins, including a shocking upset of the Chargers in one of the NFL’s most bizarre and exciting playoff games, and everyone was on the Patriot bandwagon again.
Seven months later, New England is in an entirely new position as the season awaits. A discouraging loss to the Colts in the AFC title game put new meaning to the word disappointment. However, a busy offseason has New England back on top of everybody’s list, something that wasn’t true for a majority of the 2006 season.
Why is everybody excited in Foxboro? Why not? Adding Adalius Thomas, Randy Moss, and Dante Stallworth to a postseason team is definitely a good start as is the return of Junior Seau and a roster full of players that understand their role on the team. Laurence Maroney is ready for his close up as the everyday back, and should flourish in the same ways Corey Dillon did during his early days with the Pats. Oh ya can’t forget about that Tom Brady guy either. Moss’ antics with past QB’s will not fly because of Brady’s credentials, and it will be intriguing to see how their relationship unfolds over the season. The Patriots will win the division going away, but have their eyes set on much bigger things.
Prediction: 11-5
- New York Jets
- Head Coach: Eric Mangini
- 2006: 10-6, AFC Wildcard, Lost 37-16 to Patriots in AFC Wildcard
The Jets snuck up on a lot of people, and improved their 2005 mark of 4-12 by an astonishing six games in Mangini’s first season in the Big Apple. Chad Pennington played a full 16 game season for the first time in his career, and was the runaway Comeback Player of the Year winner. Lavernues Coles and Jerricho Cotchery have teamed to force a nice combo of receivers for Pennington to rely on, and their continued development, especially Cotchery’s, leaves fans optimistic about the passing game.
Acquiring Thomas Jones via a trade with the Bears represents the best thing New York could have done to address its most pressing need. A season ago, Leon Washington led the Jets in rushing with a paltry 650 yards. Jones could be expected to double that tally and hit double digits in the touchdown department as well.
The defense wasn’t spectacular in 2006, and won’t be anything special again this year. Jonathan Vilma struggled in Mangini’s 3-4 system last year, but should be ready for a return to form in ’07. His improved play should trickle down to the rest of the defense, a unit that ranked 20th in total defense, but was the sixth toughest to score on (18.4). That bend but not break style will be in full force again this year.
A sophomore jinx from Mangini seems inevitable, however, as teams stop looking at the Jets as a pushover. Thomas Jones’ arrival will help New York contend for a playoff spot, but there are too many quality teams (Steelers, Broncos, Bengals, Jaguars) in the AFC that missed out last season to foresee the Jets making a return trip to the postseason.
Prediction: 8-8
Projected Final Standings
- New England Patriots, 11-5
- New York Jets, 8-8
- Miami Dolphins, 7-9
- Buffalo Bills, 5-11
Now, its time for the division’s….
- Best Player: Tom Brady, Patriots
Three Super Bowl titles, five straight 20+ touchdown seasons, and a trio of new receivers that can actually catch the ball. Brady takes this argument in a landslide.
- Most Overrated Player: Chris Chambers, Dolphins
Chambers was a top of the notch receiver before last year, but Culpepper’s inability to receive the necessary time to throw Chambers the ball cost him dearly last season. Many are expecting a bounce back from him this year, but that will not be the case with the immobile Trent Green throwing to him.
- Best Off-Season Acquisition: Thomas Jones, Jets
This one was hard to pick. The Patriots adding Adalius Thomas deserves some significant thumbs up, and that is not the only one. But, the Jets anemic running game was in dire need of a guy like Jones, which makes his addition the best.
- Player with the Most Pressure to Succeed: JP Losman, Bills
Losman had a nice end to the 2006 season; him and Lee Evans have formed a nice partnership. But, this guy is still a major question mark and it’s still doubtful whether or not he will succeed over the long run. Every player has pressure on them, but Losman doesn’t know if he can handle it yet.
Stay tuned for the other seven division previews that will be released before the season starts. Your comments and criticisms are both welcomed and encouraged.
