The "Should've Been" World Series
| 19
|
by user Xinoph
In 2003 we were just a few outs away from what may well have been the greatest World Series of all time. A series almost everyone outside of New York and Miami wanted. Two cursed franchises, battling for greatness. Wrigley Field and Fenway Park, the two most historic locations in baseball, hosting games. Pedro vs. Prior. Sammy Sosa vs. Johnny Damon. Yeah, it would've been great. Or would it?
Since then, the story has gone downhill. Boston swept the St. Louis Cardinals in 2004 to win the 100th World Series; the Cubs have turned into an also-ran since 2003. By the time the two teams met in inter-league play in the regular season, there wasn't nearly the story there had been.
Using Whatifsports.com, and working together with a few friends, I simulated that 2003 World Series, if the Cubs and the Sox had been in it. We ran each game ten times, averaging the score and writing commentary to fit. Part of the problem with averaging scores is that it created no shutout games, of course. But, those are rare in the World Series anyway, as they should be. It did not automatically create close games; there is a good mixture, despite all the scores being an average of ten different simulations.
Notes
This simulation assumes that the Boston playoff rotation consists of Pedro Martinez, Derek Lowe, Tim Wakefield, and John Burkett, and that Chicago's playoff rotation is Mark Prior, Kerry Wood, Carlos Zambrano, and Matt Clement. The orders were arranged strictly in terms of ERA, without situational knowledge or analysis.
The play-by-plays, including the strategy and statistics, were written after the score was determined. They are therefore for entertainment purposes only, and aren't inclusive. Mostly run-scoring plays are noted.
2003 World Series
Game One: Boston Red Sox 8, Chicago Cubs 4
Sunday, October 18, at Fenway Park
WP: P. Martinez (1-0) LP: Mark Prior (0-1)
The first score of the night is a solo shot from Chicago's Kenny Lofton in the first inning, but Pedro quickly recovers after that. Prior, meanwhile, has a terrible first inning, starting the game with a leadoff home run to Johnny Damon. He then walks two batters before giving up a two-run double to David Ortiz. He quickly gets two outs then, but gives up a two-run homer to Jason Varitek before he finishes the inning, and the game starts off 5-1, Boston.
The second and third innings are quick for both pitchers, with only one person reaching base from either team. In the fourth, however, Pedro gives up another home run, a two-run shot by Kerry Wood, making it 5-3, Boston. The bottom of the fourth, the entire fifth, and the top of the sixth are likewise quick, but in the home half of the sixth Prior's early struggles resurface. He walks David Ortiz, Trot Nixon gets a base hit, and then he faces Nomar Garciaparra. Nomar gets behind 0-2, works it to 3-2, and finally gets a home run on the 15th pitch of the at-bat. Now it's 8-2, Boston, and Prior's day is done in the 6th inning. Really, it was amazing he lasted this long, given his first inning.
Pedro's mastery continues until the 8th inning. After walking Sosa, he gets quick outs from Kerry Wood and Aramis Ramirez, then walks another batter and is pulled. Byung-Hyun Kim comes in and allows a Chicago run to score, but then gets the final out and it's 8-4, Boston. Farnsworth shuts down the Sox in the bottom of the 8th, and the Cubs are down to their last three outs. BHK fares well in his first World Series appearance in Boston, finishing off the ninth - and the game - easily enough for Boston.
- P. Martinez: 7.6IP, 2H, 5BB, 3ER, 8K's.
- M. Prior: 5.3IP, 4H, 5BB, 6ER, 2K's.
HRs: M. Ramirez, D. Ortiz, N. Garciaparra, K. Wood, K. Lofton
Note: Boston won 8 of the 10 times this game was simulated.
Game Two: Boston Red Sox 5, Chicago Cubs 4 (15)
Monday, October 19, at Fenway Park
WP: S. Williamson (1-0) LP: D. Veres (0-1)
In the longest game in World Series history, both in terms of time and innings, things start well for Chicago, going up 3-0 in the second inning with the help of a few key base hits and a Sammy Sosa solo shot. After that things settle down for Wakefield. The 6th starts off with a double by Nomar, a base hit by Doug Mirabelli, and a Johnny Damon base hit. With two outs and the bases loaded in the ninth, Bill Mueller gets a two-run double to make it 3-2, Chicago. Wood gets the last out, and recovers in the 7th for a solid inning. The Cubs make it through to the ninth until, with two outs in the ninth, David Ortiz hits a solo shot to tie the game, and it's extra innings.
In the top of the 13th, at 12:41AM EST, the Cubs manage to score on a Moises Alou single, making it 4-3 Chicago. In the home half of that inning, Boston's Todd Walker responds with a solo shot which again ties the game. Finally, in the bottom of the 15th with 2 outs, Boston's David McCarty wins the game on a double that sends Nomar home, giving the Red Sox a 5-4 win at 2:11AM EST.
- T. Wakefield : 9IP, 5H, 5BB's, 3ERs, 6K's.
- K. Wood: 7IP, 3H, 3BB's, 3ERs, 5K's.
HRs: S. Sosa, D. Ortiz, T. Walker
Note: The two teams both won this game 5 of the 10 times it was simulated.
Game Three: Chicago Cubs 7, Boston Red Sox 1
Wednesday, October 21, at Wrigley Field
WP: C. Zambrano: (1-0) LP: B.H. Kim (0-1)
Two days after the epic battle at Fenway, the scene of the series shifted to Chicago with the Cubs down two games to none. They need a win, and put Carlos Zambrano up on the mound against Derek Lowe. Both teams rested a lot of starters.
Both pitchers start off well. In the 5th, the Cubs get things going and quickly score five runs, including walked-in run and a three-run homer from Alex Gonzalez, before Boston pulls Lowe in favor of Bronson Arroyo. He goes on to perform much better than Lowe in the game. Zambrano tosses six shut-out innings before loading the bases in the 7th; he leaves the game and Chicago gets out of it.
The 8th starts off with a Nomar Garciaparra home run, then the Sox go down quickly, and it's on to the home half with the Cubs leading 5-1. Timlin walks the first batter and is pulled in favor of closer Byung-Hyun Kim. BHK gets two quick outs, a ground-out and a pop-fly before Sammy Sosa comes in as a pinch-hitter. The count runs to 3-2, and the at-bat goes to 16 pitches, before Sosa wins the game on a home run to deep center.
- C. Zambrano: 7.3IP, 2H, 3BB's, 2ER, 6 K's
- D. Lowe: 4.3IP, 6H, 5 BB's, 4ER, 1 K
HRs: S. Sosa, N. Garciaparra, A. Gonzalez
Note: Chicago won 6 of the 10 times this game was simulated.
Game Four: Boston Red Sox 7, Chicago Cubs 4
Thursday, October 22, at Wrigley Field
WP: J. Burkett (1-0) LP: M. Clement (0-1)
Game Four is another close game that starts with Chicago leading. In the 1st, the Cubs take the early 2-0 lead after Burkett begins the game with a series of walks. Boston strikes back in the second, though, with Nomar Garciaparra starting things off with a long double off Clement. Varitek sends him home on a sacrifice fly, and then Boston's SP John Burkett gets a solo shot home run to make it 4-2, Boston.
The game stays quiet until the 5th, when the Red Sox score a trio of runs to make it 7-2, Boston. Burkett, meanwhile, has a 1-2-3 5th. Both teams are quiet in the 6th; the Cubs pull Matt Clement in favor of Kyle Farnsworth. The game remains quiet until the bottom of the 8th, which begins with John Burkett being replaced by Bronson Arroyo. Arroyo gives up a home run a two-run homer to Aramis Ramirez, making it 7-5 Boston. In the 9th, the Cubs start things off with a single, but Boston turns that into two outs rather quickly. Arroyo stays in the game for the final out, and Boston leads the series three games to one.
- J. Burkett: 7.3IP, 3H, 2ER, 3BBs, 2K's.
- M. Clement: 5.3IP, 9H, 4ER, 2BB, 7K's
HRs: A. Ramirez, J. Burkett
Note: The two teams both won this game 5 of the 10 times it was simulated.
Game Five: Chicago Cubs 4 Boston Red Sox 3
Friday, October 23, at Wrigley Field
WP: Mark Prior (1-1) LP: P. Martinez (1-1)
The last game in Wrigley would see a rematch of the first game in Fenway, with Pedro and Prior returning to the mound. The first time, Pedro and the Sox got the better of Prior. This time, if the Cubs wanted to return to Fenway, they'd need Prior to do at least as well as, if not better than, Pedro.
After a quick 1st, the Sox got on the scoreboard with a solo home run from Nomar. Things are quiet until the bottom of the 3rd, when the Cubs get on the board, thanks to an Eric Karros single, an Alex Gonzalez single and a Mark Prior pop-up, tying the game at 1. The 4th sees a base-runner from each side, but no scoring; in the 5th Boston again takes the lead from a solo home run, this time thanks to Todd Walker, and it's 2-1, Boston.
The Cubs go in order in the bottom of the 5th; in the top of the 6th Boston scores again, making it 3-1 Boston. The 7th is quiet offensively; Mark Prior then sends Boston down in order in the 8th. Then it's the bottom of the 8th, Pedro is still in the game, and the Cubs are down to their last six outs of the season. He gives up a single to Sammy Sosa, and is replaced by BHK. Kim walks Paul Bako, then gives up a two-run double to Aramis Ramirez, tying the game at 3. Then Kim's day is done, as he gives up the game-winning homer to Felipe Alou.
- P. Martinez: 7IP, 7H, 2ER, 1BB, 5 K's
- M. Prior: 8IP, 6H, 3ER, 1BB, 6K's
HRs: N. Garciaparra, T. Walker
Note: Boston won 7 of the 10 times this game was simulated.
Game Six: Boston Red Sox 9 Chicago Cubs 6
Saturday, October 24, 2003 at Fenway Park
WP: T. Wakefield (1-0) LP: D. Veres (0-1)
The pitchers from the epic Game Two face off again at Fenway, Pedro has a rough first inning, allowing one run to score after walking two batters, but gets out of it and it's 1-0, Chicago to begin the game. The Cubs continue scoring in the 2nd with an Erick Karros solo shot, making it 2-0, Cubbies. In the home half Nomar follows that up with his own solo shot, making it 2-1, Chicago. The 4th is quick for both pitchers, then in the 5th Trot Nixon hits another solo home run to tie the game at 2.
The 6th and 7th are also quick innings, but the 8th is disastrous for Boston. It begins with a Damian Miller double; he scores thanks to Kenny Lofton's triple. Mark Grudzielanak follows that up with a single, and Lofton scores. Kerry Wood singles, Moises Alou triples, Eric Karros singles, and the damage continues. Pedro finally manages to get some outs, but the damage has been done: it's now 6-2, Chicago.
The home team fares better in their half of the inning. Wood clearly begins to tire, as he walks two straight batters. He's pulled in favor of Kyle Farnsworth, who promptly gives up a three-run homer to Todd Walker, making it 6-5, Chicago. Farnsworth is pulled. The Cubs bullpen finishes off the 8th.
In the 9th BHK shuts down the Cubs, proving his worth after several troublesome outings this World Series, and it's on to the bottom of the 9th. Chicago's bullpen struggles continue. Johnny Damon starts things off with a single. Bill Mueller pops out deep, moving Damon to second. Manny gets a Fenway single off the wall, and there are men at the corners with one out. They walk Ortiz, loading the bases, and Trot Nixon strikes out swinging.
Now it's still 6-5 Boston, and Nomar, with a home run already in the game, comes to the plate. He swings at the first pitch, and fouls it off. The next pitch is a ball, and then there's a wild pitch, but not wild enough for anyone to move off the bases. Now it's 2-1, and Nomar swings at the next pitch, missing. The next pitch is outside, and suddenly it's a full count. He fouls it off a few more times - the at-bat reaches the 13th pitch before he's able to do something with it. Finally he does something with it, and it's a deep, high ball to center field....it's a GRAND SLAM! Boston wins the game and the World Series on a Nomar Garciaparra grand slam in the bottom of the ninth.
- T. Wakefield : 8IP, 8H, 5ER, 5BB, 6K's
- K. Wood: 7.33IP, 6H, 3ER, 4BB, 3K's
HRs: T. Walker, T. Nixon, N. Garciaparra (2), E. Karros
Note: Boston won this game 9 of the 10 times it was simulated.
Conclusions
World Series MVP: Nomar Garciaparra, with his 6-HR performance, .630 AVG in the Series, and game-winning grand slam in Game Six.
This is all entertainment, not analysis. I worked on it with my step-brother, who's a Cubs fan. I wrote the play-by-play for the games Chicago won; he wrote the play-by-play for the games Boston won (except Game 6, which we did together). Much of our play-by-play came from finding WhatIfSports.com simulated games with scores similar to our average scores, and examining those box scores.
Date
Fri 06/02/06, 11:32 am EST
