Ted Lilly: Bronson Arroyo II?

by Killuminati

Last night as I watched the weak hitting Arizona Diamondbacks knock around Ted Lilly I could only think of one thing: the Cubs would be wise not to expect the same Ted Lilly they had this year (15-8; 3.83 ERA) going into next years Spring Training. Obviously, it is nearly impossible to predict what a player will do in the future -- there are too many unpredictable factors -- but Bronson Arroyo might be able to shed some light on Ted Lilly's future.

In 2006 the Cincinnati Reds acquired Bronson Arroyo from the Boston Red Sox for outfielder Willy Mo Pena. When Arroyo showed up in Cincinnati his win-loss record for his career was an even .500 (33-33) and he sported a 4.59 ERA. In his first year at Cincinnati, he went 14-11 (he went through a terribly long win drought midway through the season) and had an era of 3.29 -- more than a full run lower than his career average. He was rewarded for his nice season by a trip to the All-Star game as the Reds' lone representative.

Arroyo's sophomore year with the Reds, however, was not quite as stellar. His record was nearly reversed (he went 9-15) and his ERA was 4.23 -- more closely resembling his career average.

There are several reasons for the sudden change in stats. First of all, the Reds were not quite as good in 2007 as they were in 2006 (if you can call them "good" in 2006). Along with that, Arroyo did not get much run support in his outings in 2007. He was plagued with as little as one or two runs in support in several starts throughout the year. Also, you could make the claim that he was overworked in 2006 -- he threw a career high 240+ innings. But, in my opinion, a more logical explanation is that the National League finally caught up with him. Arroyo had spent the past several years before going to the Reds in the very good American League East Division. He regularly had to face the Yankees and Toronto Blue Jays -- both teams had very tough line-ups. When Arroyo came to the National League Central he played in a division where the top team only had 83 wins (an 83 win World Serious team, though, it should be noted). After one successful year the Pujols', Lee's, and Ramirez's finally figured what Arroyo was throwing. Arroyo is still a good pitcher, but it is unlikely he will have any more sub-4 ERA seasons anytime soon.

Which brings me to Ted Lilly. Lilly, when he came to the Cubs, had eerily similar statistics when compared to Bronson Arroyo. Lilly's ERA was nearly identical to Bronson Arroyo's -- Lilly had a 4.60; Arroyo had a 4.59 -- and he was also a career .500 pitcher (59-58). And just like Arroyo, Lilly had a great first year in the weak NL Central. Lilly posted an impressive ERA of 3.83 and a record of 15-8. He had a slightly better win-loss record than Arroyo had in his first year, but a slightly higher ERA. Not only did Ted Lilly come to the Cubs with Arroyo-like stats, but he also came from the same powerhouse division -- the AL East. Being a Blue Jay, Lilly had to face both the Yankees and the Red Sox regularly throughout the year. There is quite a difference when facing the Reds and Astros instead of the Yankees and Red Sox.

As you can see, both Ted Lilly and Bronson Arroyo are in very similar situations. Not only do they share very similar statistics, but they both have a similar pitching style. Neither pitcher will blow a fastball by you; instead they rely on off-speed pitches and good movement.

The Cubs were not a very good team this year, yet they still won the NL Central with some very good pitching. If the Cubs plan on doing the same next year they might want to look to adding another above-average pitcher, because if history repeats -- and I think it will -- they won't have Ted Lilly to fall back on.