Take a Walk
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by user LouGehrig
It is so much fun to fool around with statistics because once we have the data, we can interpret them in so many ways. Let's talk about bases on balls. Every fan who ever swung at a bad pitch when she was a kid or even a grown up knows that good hitters swing at strikes and that walking hitters is usually not good.
The 1949 New York Yankees were the first of five Yankees’ teams that won the pennant and World Series each year, a feat that had never been done before and has not been accomplished since. An examination of the 1949 Yankees’ starting pitchers is fascinating. The following table lists the four pitchers who started the majority of the Yankees’ games:
Pitcher GS W L ERA IP BB SO Raschi 37 21 10 3.34 274 2/3 138 124 Reynolds 31 17 6 4.00 213 2/3 123 105 Byrne 30 15 7 3.72 196 179 129 Lopat 30 15 10 3.26 215 1/3 69 70 TOTALS 128 68 33 899 2/3 509 428
Yankees’ starters allowed 509 walks while striking out only 428 batters. Vic Raschi, Allie Reynolds, and Tommy Byrne walked more batters than they struck out, while Eddie Lopat, struck out only one more hitter than he walked. But Raschi was 21-10, Reynolds was 17-6, Byrne was 15-7, and Lopat was 15-10. These statistics lead to the conclusion that walks have little effect on a pitcher’s won-lost record.
Okay, but today it becoming widely acknowledged that a hurler’s won-lost record involves much luck, and ERA compared to league ERA is a better measure of a pitcher’s effectiveness. Raschi (3.34), Reynolds (4.00), Byrne (3.72), and Lopat (3.26) all had respectable ERAs. Only five American League pitchers had ERA’s less than 3.00 that season. The 1949 Yankees team ERA of 3.69 was second only to the Indians’ 3.36 in a league with a 4.20 ERA.
Tommy Byrne walked an incredible 179 batters in 196 innings. That is almost one hitter per inning. He struck out only 129. Tommy Byrne walked 50 more hitters than he struck out, walked almost a hitter an inning, and yet he won 15 games, lost only 7, and had a 3.72 ERA.
Allie Reynolds was better, but not much better. He walked 123 hitters in 213 2/3 innings but struck out only 105. Allie Reynolds walked 18 more hitters that he struck out, yet he won 17 games, lost only 6, and had a 4.00 ERA, which is acceptable, but which was still below the league ERA.
Vic Raschi, the ace of the staff, walked 138 hitters in 274 2/3 innings while striking out only 124. Vic Raschi walked 14 more batters than he struck out, yet he won 21 games, lost 10, and had a 3.34 ERA.
Eddie Lopat didn’t walk many and he didn’t strike out many. In 215 1/3 innings, he walked only 69, stuck out only 70, and won 15 while losing 10 with a fine 3.26 ERA.
What can we conclude. First, walks have little effect on a pitcher’s won-lost record. Second, walks do not ruin a pitcher’s ERA. Third, walks do not lead to losses for starting pitchers. Fourth, a pitcher’s walk to strikeout ratio does not reflect his effectiveness. Finally, a pitching staff that walks more hitters than it strikes out can be successful.
More conclusions can be drawn, but the above are enough. Of course, none of the conclusions is true, but based on the data, they are valid. As Mark Twain, an American who lived a long time ago once said, “There are lies, damn lies, and statistics.”
