Shimmering T: Week 12 Mailbag Part 2
| 3
|
Happy Thanksgiving!
I need 2 WR:
Anquan Boldin, Chad Johnson, Lee Evans, Torry Holt?
Also, (I know you love Kicker questions): Should I continue to play Vinatieri? or pick up S. Graham, J. Reed, or J. Wilkins?
Thanks! JAM
JAM Master J,
Thanks for the Thanksgiving wishes, I hope you have a good one, too! Also, thanks for the kicker questions, they are my specialty (now watch me blow it). Here goes nothing...
Chad Johnson has a tough matchup this week against a Titans pass D that is not only ranked 7th in the league, but has held its last four opponents under 200 yards passing. That said, none of these four teams have been real passing juggernauts like the Bengals, so its safe to say the ranking should be tempered a bit this week. With so many options in the passing game, fantasy owners' biggest fear should be that he gets lost in the shuffle. Fiave straight games under 10 FPs should worry his owners, but there is always the chance that he will explode.
Anquan Boldin has a decent matchup against the 49ers who have been sputtering of late. They put together a solid performance against the Rams, but have been lit up by better offenses like the Seahawks and Saints. I'm not big on Boldin, however, because even though he put up a big week last week, 44 of his 71 yards came on one TD and he was going against a defense against whom he should have gotten more than 4 catches.
Now on to my least favorite player in the league, Mr. Inconsistency himself, Lee Evans. I do have to give him some credit for at least getting 64 and 40 yards respectively the past two weeks, instead of the 10 yards or so he was getting in his bust games at the beginning of the year. The Jaguars have been absolutely atrocious on pass D this year, having given up 200 or more passing yards in 8 consecutive weeks. As such, Evans is a great play this weekend. Lets just hope the Boom shows up this week.
Last but certainly not least is Torry Holt, who has been Mr. Consistent of late, putting up more than 10 FP in his last 3 games. He also has a good matchup this week, going up against the 20th-ranked pass D that has looked vulnerable to good teams. The only concern I have for Torry is that the pass rush of the Seahawks, second in the league with 31 sacks thus far, will wreak havoc on Bulger and the passing game. However, this is not enough to keep Holt out of the lineup, as even when the Rams gave up six sacks last week, he still got his 7 receptions and TD.
So, after looking at the situation carefully, I would go with Lee Evans and Torry Holt this week over Johnson and Boldin. It certainly is tough having depth at a position as inconsistent as WR, which is certainly the case in your situation. It hurts assembling great fantasy teams doesn't it?
As for your kicker situation, it is tough to drop Vinatieri because he will be picked up pretty quickly by another manager. So, while I think that Jeff Reed will likely have a slightly better week this week, I would stick with Vinatieri. Plus, with the Colts likely running the ball against the Falcons and not clicking in the passing game and near the goaline, Vinatieri could be in for a number of attempts and should get you between 8 and 10 FP.
Good luck on Thursday, Sunday, and Monday,
- Shimmering T.
Someone who shall remain nameless because he already asked a question tries to make me a hypocrite by asking a trade question in a Start/Sit mailbag:
I have 2 trade opportunities: Giving up: Keith, Young Recieving: Addai and also Giving up: Shockey and Lee Recieving: Gates Both of these seem like no-brainers but it felt too good to be true. Whats your take on this? Much thanks,
Awesome Nameless Fan
Hello Awesome Nameless Fan,
For your trades, I would do the first one in a heartbeat, especially with the matchup Addai has this week against the Falcons. Keith is worthless in my opinion aside from value as a handcuff, because I don't think Dungy trusts him at all (dropped pass last week, near fumble two weeks earlier). The only time he may have value is in the last two weeks of the season, although it appears Indy will have a fight on its hands for the division and will have to play Addai to the end (great news for Addai owners). Young is good, but he is no Addai, and Shanahan could always pull the plug in a second.
As far as the second matchup goes, I would actually pass on it. Looking at Gates’ production (only 1 game more than 60 yards in his last 5 and 14 grabs over that stretch), I think you are better off playing matchups with Shockey and Lee, who have better schedules too, than going with Gates and his inconsistent QB. You can go Shockey in Week 12 (MIN - 32nd), 13 (CHI - 22nd), 15 (WAS - 23rd), and 16 (BUF - 29th) (Not a bad stretch for him, eh?) and Lee in Week 14 (OAK - 6th, but very overrated), or play other matchups based on how the weeks work out. Even if you accept it though, you shouldn't be too bad off.
Good luck with the outcome of the trades,
- The Shimmering One
Another new reader, Mark writes in:
Hey Flea Fanatics,
1. I have a dilemma in regard to running backs. For background, our scoring (no decimals) is: 1 pt per 10 yards rushing or receiving 1 pt per 10 rush attempts 1 pt per 3 receptions I have to start 2 backs for week 12 out of the following: W. McGahee, C. Taylor, and E. Graham. I also have M. Lynch, but I'm assuming he won't play.
2. On top of that I feeling a temptation to pick up a different RB from the waiver wire. R. Dayne, M. Morris, K. Smith, and F. Taylor are all available, and I'm sure I could get at least one of them. Problem is that we have a roster limit of 4 RBs, so I would have to drop one of the guys I already have. Am I insane? Or are any of those guys worth it?
3. My league does not have playoffs, so we play out to week 17, I'm 7-4 in 3rd place 1.5 games back. I play the #1 team in week 13, and the #2 team in week 15 (I already lost to them both earlier in the season). Given my roster are there any moves I should try to make now to improve, and especially to win those key games? Starters: T. Brady W. McGahee C. Taylor R. Moss J. Galloway B. Engram D. Lee J. Reed Titans Bench: M. Bulger M. Lynch E. Graham A. Davis (I have a waiver claim in to pick up Cardinals TM and drop Davis) B. Watson
Thanks.
Hey Mark,
Thanks a lot for writing in with your question. It's always great to hear from new people. Great pick-up if you got the Cardinals by the way, since they should have a solid day against every defenses favorite offense, the 49ers.
You have quite the dilemma on your hands, as all of the RBs you have, aside from McGahee, are in the same situation, having assumed the starting position from top backs and not necessarily being top backs themselves, but certainly not expendable. So, lets take a look at both their current matchups and what you would lose down the road if you dropped one of them for a waiver wire guy. You are also right to assume that Lynch will not be playing.
McGahee should definitely be in your starting lineup this week, as he is one of the hotter RBs in the league, having scored a TD in five straight games. He comes up against a struggling Chargers defense that is 23rd in the league against the run and has allowed more than 100 yards in 3 of the last 4 games. I wouldn't expect a huge day, but a solid 10-15 FP should come your way, which is crucial to support the volume of points you will get from Brady and Moss. Consistency is the key with your situation because you have two players from whom you can count on getting about 40-50 points, if not more, a game.
Chester Taylor has a tougher matchup this week, going up against the 7th-rated rushing defense in the league. Taylor's value may be a bit misleading, since he played the Raiders last week when he went off. I could probably put up at 100 and a TD against them. The Giants run D has been particularly tough as of late, having surrendered well under 100 yards on the ground in the past two games. I also think the Giants will be up big this week, creating a lot of turnovers on offense, which should limit Taylor's value. The X-factor is the offensive line of the Vikings, which can open up holes for anyone and can put up a dominant performance on any given week against any opponent. That said, even All Day was shut down a few week. I think you have better options than Taylor and he may be a candidate for being dropped, since he has two tough matchups in a row and by that time All Day Peterson should be back.
Earnest Graham is an interesting character, as I am never impressed when I see him running but somehow he gets it done. In the past two game he has over 100 yards on the ground and a TD, not bad fantasy numbers at all. He goes up this week against the 10th-ranked rush D in the Redskins. That said, they have struggle of late, having given up 100 or more yards in 3 of the past 4 games (last week's loss to Dallas being the game in which they didn't). The Redskins secondary has been susceptible to the pass for a while now, so you may see the Bucs attack through the air. I wouldn't start Graham this week, but I would hold on to him for the next two weeks, since he goes up against weak run Ds in Buffalo and Chicago.
So, of the waiver wire candidates you have, Dayne and K. Smith have great matchups this week. Dayne against the 20th-ranked rush D and Smith against the 31st-ranked rush D. The Browns have given up 3 straight games of 100+ yards on the ground, while the Raiders have only held 2 opponents under 100 and just gave up 228 to the Vikings. I would give K. Smith the edge here, only because he has another great matchup the following weak against the Broncos, and he is playing with a semi-rookie QB, which means the Chiefs will likely run the ball a lot.
So, my advice would be to start McGahee, drop Taylor, and go with K. Smith this weak against the Raiders. This should guarantee you between 20-30 FP from the RB position with the possibility of a much larger return from either guy. This should be enough, with the rest of your lineup, to put together a very solid, if not spectacular week.
I hope this analysis has helped, feel free to write in against, and best of luck tomorrow, Sunday, and Monday,
- Shimmering T. at www.fleafanatics.com
Thanks again everyone, and don’t forget to send questions to Flea.Fanatics@gmail.com
