Shimmering T: Week 12 Mailbag Part 1
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Longtime reader, but new mailbagger Dan writes:
Hey, I just wanted to tell you I love the articles each week. It's my first season using Fleaflicker and I like it a lot more than Yahoo. I have some matchup questions for you for next week.
Out of my four running backs which three (rb/wr spot) would you want to start for week 12? LT, Marion Barber III, Selvin Young and Matt Morris
Also my wrs have been inconsistent and I always bench the wrong ones. Mason is my consistent guy but I also have Chad Johnson, Santana Moss and David Patten. Could you give me some advice on that one?
Thanks. Dan
Hey Dan,
Thanks for writing in. We love to hear from new readers.
Of the 4 running backs you have, LT definitely needs to be in the lineup regardless of who he is playing.He is too dangerous and explosive to not be starting, and is the 3rdranked RB in most leagues. Definitely put him in there. Baltimore isvery good against the run, but struggled last week against the Browns and Jamal Lewis. The most important thing is that LT is guaranteed touches, especially in the red zone.
As for choosing two of the next three, I would agree with most readers that Marion Barber is definitely someone you should play. Even though he has struggled of late, Barber is going up against a Jets team that is ranked 29th in the league against the run. Moreover, the Cowboys should run the ball a lot once they start winning big, which shouldn't take long. Finally, if you need any more convincing, the Jets are 27th in the league, having given up 10 rushing TDs this year. Definitely have Barber in your lineup.
As for the next player, things get a bit trickier. Selvin Young is already the primary back, and Henry should be suspended later this week. He is going against the 26th rated rushing defense and a defense that is living off its reputation from last year. In fact, they have given up at least 100 yards total rushing in each of the past six weeks. With the way Young has been running, this should continue. My only concern is whether Andre Hall will steal some carries, having broken off a long TD run against the Titans. You never know with Mike Shanahan, so that is a definite question mark. There is a bit of an injury question, too, but he returned to the game and reports say he should be fine.
Morris isn't without question marks either, as Shaun Alexander has had another week to heal. That said, I don't think there is any way that Mike Holmgren removes Morris as the starter, since he has performed well in Alexander's absence and the former top RB has played very poorly this year behind the same line that Morris is excelling with. Alexander may steal a couple carries, but nothing more. As for the matchup, the Seahawks are facing the 19th-ranked rushing defense, but one that has held opponents to 43 and 32 yards in their last two matchups. It may be a case that the defense is gelling, particularly since they shut down Reggie Bush after he had had a string of nice games.
So, after looking at the matchups, I am going to have to go with Selvin Young over Mo Morris this weekend because of the better matchup and the fact that Morris, despite playing well, has not surpassed 100 yards this season on the ground.
As far as your WRs, it is tough to get WRs who are consistently good because of the nature of the position. Patten has burned me the past couple weeks because I thought he had become Brees' #2 target but has fallen off. Mason has unreliable quarterbacking and a dearth of TDs. Chad will be fine, although he is definitely struggling a bit. That said, at least his struggles net him close to 10 points per game, which is crucial come playoff game. He can always explode as well. Moss looked to turn it around last week, but has what I regard as the toughest secondary matchup in the Bucs. They have yet to give up a 300 yard passing game and have held the last 4 opponents under 300 total yards. So, for this week, I might go with Johnson and Patten, but look on the waiver wire for someone like Drew Carter, who has emerged as a legitimate threat in Steve Smiths' absence.
Man that was a long write-up. Best of luck this week,
- Shimmering T.
The astute and dominant Corey asks:
Hello Oh Shimmering One, Well I won in all three leagues again, however in my most important league its still a close call. Im 7-4 and I have the same record as the 6th place team. If I stay on the roll Im on Ill hopefully over-take at least one team and squeeze into the playoffs. And now down to business: Burress Vs Houshmanzadeh Vs S. Young Vs J. Chatman Vs Hilliard (I need 3) Also, Start/Sit: Shockey Vs. Lee As always, much thanks, Corey
Corey,
I am glad to hear that you had another dominant week. I went 4-1 and came within Terrell Owens of making it a perfect sweep. I'm in contention in every league and should make the playoffs in 4 of 5, if not all 5. This week, as usual is huge.
So, now that you've heaped the pressure on me explaining how important this game is, lets get to your question:
As you mentioned in the section of your question I edited, all three players are a little banged up this week. So, we do have to take this into consideration.
That said, I think TJ Houshmandzadeh needs to be in your lineup every week. Yes, he is hurt, but it is a pattern with him that he misses at least one practice each week but almost always suits up. This was true last year, too. He does have a tough matchup, but he has a TD in every game but one, and at least 4 catches. That is about as consistent as you will get with a WR. Since TJ has proven he can handle tough matchups, go with him again this week.
Burress is a tougher one. Clearly from the polls in the sidebar, our readers love Burress this week against the Vikings. I'm not as sold on him because his injuries have stopped him from playing well against other weak defenses like last week against the Lions. There was one pass against the Lions where I saw that 1) Burress can't jump; and 2) Burress can't run at normal speed which causes Eli to overthrow him. These are not good signs. All of this said, he still has the best matchup a WR can have, except maybe for the Bengals.
For Young, I will give you the same information as I did to Dan: . "Selvin Young is already the primary back, and Henry should be suspended later thisweek. He is going against the 26th rated rushing defense and a defense that is living off its reputation from last year. In fact, they have given up at least 100 yards total rushing in each of the past sixweeks. With the way Young has been running, this should continue. Myonly concern is whether Andre Hall will steal some carries, havingbroken off a long TD run against the Titans. You never know with Mike Shanahan, so that is a definite question mark. There is a bit of an injury question, too, but he returned to the game and reports say he should be fine."
I don't like Chatman at all because he is going against the Steelers D and it will be a pissed off D after this past week's loss. Not a good combination at all for the Dolphins WR.
Finally, I wouldn't start Hilliard this week, either. He really only has one big performance this year and while he is consistent, he is consistently mediocre in the 4 to 5 FP range. Even Burress on an off day should get this.
So, I would go with Housh, Burress, and Young this week and I expect you will have a nice day.
As for your TE slot, you have a great matchup to decide, with both TEs being solid and having terrific matchups. I am going to go with Shockey in your matchup because he is going against a better run D (meaning the Giants will likely throw) and the Giants will be missing Brandon Jacobs and Burress is a bit slow. Shockey should see a lot of the ball on Sunday as a result of these other threats being hobbled. Lee should also have an excellent game, but there are a lot more weapons on the Packers (Jennings, Driver, Jones, et. al) to steal the ball from Lee.
I hope everything goes well this week, and whoever you pick is the right choice. I'm certainly feeling the pressure,
- Shimmering T. at www.fleafanatics.com
Look for Part 2 of the mailbag later tonight or tomorrow. Also, if you have an idea for a way to improve our blog, other than something funny like "fire Shimmering T." please don't hesitate to send us a suggestion at Flea.Fanatics@gmail.com or in the comments.
