Shimmering T. : Mailbag
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Hello and welcome to the first installment of the Shimmering T. Mailbag, in which the Shimmering One answers questions from readers. Feel free to send questions to Flea.Fanatics@gmail.com and I will do my best to get to all of them. If you don't, I may have to make some up. On to the first Shimmering T. 'Bag:
Justin Asks: Do I trade All Day (Adrian Peterson) for Marion Barber?
Thanks for your question Justin. Congratulations on being the first question-asker in the 'Bag.
The three components of any trade that I always look at (assuming this is not a keeper league) are: Player, Schedule, Team.
Marion Barber
Player - 48 carries, 306 yards, 4 TD, 6 receptions, 67 yards, 1 TD
Barber is having a great beginning to the year, although I don't expect his 6.3 y/c average to continue throughout the year. Historically he has been a very solid back who gets goaline carries, but one that splits the load with Julius Jones. I expect Barber's stats to come down a bit, as he cannot continue at his current pace, particularly while splitting carries. That said, even a slight drop will keep him in elite RB company.
Team - Cowboys
The Cowboys have arguably the best offense in the league and Barber is one of the reasons why. He should continue to get plenty of goaline looks, since the Cowboys' offense is so dominant. Another thing to consider is the type of games that the Cowboys are in, as they have gotten huge leads that result in more rushing attempts.
Schedule - Barber has had a fairly cushy schedule thus far, but things get tougher. After Buffalo this week, Barber gets New England, Minnesota, and Philly, ranked 6, 1, and 3 against the run, respectively. The schedule softens up a bit after that, with a decent playoff schedule.
Adrian Peterson
Player - 76 carries, 378 yards, 1 TD, 9 receptions, 166 yards, 1 TD
All Day is already one of the most exciting players in the league, showing a tremendous combination of size, speed, and agility. His pass-catching also adds an integral dimension to his game and has added 5.5 fantasy points per game to his average thus far in 2007. He will be splitting carries with Chester Taylor for the foreseeable future, although he is clearly the more explosive back. If the Vikings want to win, they will make sure that AP gets plenty of touches. Taylor is also an injury concern, so while he puts a dent in AP's value, the rookie is still a solid RB2.
Team - Vikings
Here is the major problem with All Day's value in my opinion and something that could keep him from consistent performances throughout the year. With no passing game, defenses can stack the box and force the Vikings to throw or limit AP's effectiveness (although this strategy hasn't worked so far). More importantly, the Vikings have started to get behind in games, which forces them to go to the air. As a result, the Vikings are a bit of a downer on AP's value.
Schedule - All Day has a tough fantasy schedule the rest of the way, including the next three games against top-10 rush D's in Chicago, Dallas, and Philadelphia. Weeks 10-13 are a bit easier, but he has some tough games down the stretch, too, including a week 15 playoff game against the Bears. Many of the teams are also solid offensively, which may result in lopsided games with more passing for the Vikings.
Final Verdict: While I am a huge fan of Mr. All Day Peterson, my suggestion would be to pick up Barber, who I believe will be a more consistent performer this year. The Cowboys really give Barber the advantage—even though he is sharing carries—because he should get plenty of opportunities to run out the clock in garbage time and possibly pick up a few extra TDs. Although he has gotten a ton of hype this year, Barber was solid last year too, picking up 14 TDs, and showed the ability to be a RB2. This season he has elevated himself to second-tier RB1 status and is well on his way to improving on last year's numbers. It pains me to say it, but it might be in your best interest to make the deal and pick up Barber. If it is a keeper league, the pick is Peterson.
Look for this week's start/sit and a new borderline player ranking feature on Friday or Saturday. Thanks for your question Justin,
--Shimmering T. at www.fleafanatics.com
