Series Preview, Lonestar Showdown Edition: Houston Astros (38-41) @ Texas Rangers (40-39)
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Business First: As we’ve been reporting, it looked very likely that the Rangers would lose Fabio Castro because he was optioned down to the minors. So, they took preemptive action yesterday and traded the left-handed reliever to the Philadelphia Phillies for left-handed starter Daniel Haigwood and cash considerations. On the season, Haigwood is 2-5 with a 3.54 ERA for the Double-A Reading Phillies. They also reinstated Josh Rupe from the 60-day DL and assigned him to Triple-A Oklahoma.
Aside from that, I just take this space to mention that I will be at the game on Friday. My first major league game since seeing the Astros choke against the Cubs last September. I am STOKED!
The Lowdown: The last time these two teams met, I dubbed it the “Something’s Gotta Give” series. When they played in May, the Rangers had lost 6 out of their 10 previous games, and the Astros had lost 7 of their previous 10. Well, guess what? It’s the “Something’s Gotta Give” series revisited. Coming into this weekend’s three game set, the Rangers have lost five in a row and seven out of their last nine; the Astros have lost three straight and eight out of their last ten. Both teams have been hideous in interleague play. The Astros are 5-10, and in a season where the AL is totally dominating the NL, the Rangers are just 6-9. If this series had been played two or three weeks ago, I would have predicted the Rangers to win handily, even with their bad record at home this season (23-21). But, at this point, I’d say it’s anyone’s series.
The Rangers have fallen to third place in the AL West, 2.5 games behind the Oakland A’s and 0.5 games behind the Seattle Mariners. The Astros are fourth in the NL Central, six games behind the slumping St. Louis Cardinals.
Probables:
Friday, June 30, 7:35 CST
TEX: RHP Vicente Padilla (6-5, 4.76)
HOU: RHP Roy Oswalt (6-3, 3.26)
This is the closest thing this series has to a pitcher’s duel. Oswalt is coming off that great start against the White Sox, when he held them to two runs over 7 innings, only to have the bullpen blow a 9-2 lead in the 8th and 9th innings. The Astros eventually won in extra innings. He has had a pretty rough June overall, though. As with just about all the Astros, Oswalt’s performance level has declined as the season has progressed. He was 4-1 with a 2.76 ERA at the end of April. He went 1-2 with a 3.49 ERA in May. And, in this month, he is 0-1 with a 3.86 ERA. According to MLB.com, Oswalt is 4-1 against the Rangers lifetime, with an ERA of 3.35. Padilla is 0-4 with a 5.68 ERA in his career against the Astros. But, he has been one of the Rangers best pitchers at home this year, with a 4-2 record and a 4.18 ERA. The Astros, who have struggled with runners in scoring position this year (batting .263, 19th in MLB), may particularly struggle against Padilla. He is holding hitters to a .214 BA with runners in scoring position. The Astros lineup that is loaded with right-handed bats may also struggle, as Padilla is holding rightys to a .214 BA. But watch out for Lance Berkman and Mike Lamb - leftys are hitting .316 against Padilla. However, that stat can also work to the Rangers favor, as Garner will likely try to exploit the lefty/righty situation by making a bonehead move such as starting Orlando Palmeiro and/or Eric Munson.
Saturday, July 1, 12:20 CST
TEX: RHP John Wasdin (1-0, 3.38)
HOU: RHP Taylor Buchholz (4-6, 5.81)
Wasdin will be fresh off the DL for his second start of the season. In his first and only start, Wasdin earned the win by holding Boston to three earned runs in 5.2 innings of work. In 13 appearances for Triple-A Oklahoma, Wasdin was 3-3 with a 2.00 ERA. As with Oswalt, Buchholz deserved better from his last outing. He had allowed just one hit to the White Sox through six innings, but he left the game with the bases loaded in the seventh inning. Chad Qualls came in and game up a grand slam on his first pitch, giving up the tying run in a game the Astros eventually lost in extra frames. Don’t be deceived by Buchholz’s ERA - he is capable of bringing really great stuff. His stats are marred by a handful of really hideous outings, but this is the same pitcher that threw a complete game, five-hit shutout of the Rangers last month. Perhaps Rangers fans can take some extra comfort in knowing that Buchholz is 1-3 with a 7.57 ERA away from Minute Maid Park this season.
Sunday, July 2, 7:05 CST
TEX: RHP Kevin Millwood (8-4, 4.47)
HOU: LHP Wandy Rodriguz (8-5, 4.79)
This may well be the best matchup for the Rangers. Millwood is 5-2 with a 2.60 ERA in eight career starts against the Astros. He has also been making significant improvements in his performance at Ameriquest lately, going 2-0 with a 3.38 ERA in his last three starts there. His 2-1 record and 3.67 ERA this month is also finally coming around to reflect the kind of pitching the Rangers needed and expected when they acquired Millwood this winter. He will take his game against Wandy Rodriguez, who has allowed four earned runs or more in three of his last four starts, and in four out of his six starts this month. In the month of June, Rodriguez is 2-3 with a 6.42 ERA. He has been very good against left-handed hitters, holding them to a .228 batting average. But the Rangers are capable of loading their lineup with good right-handed batters, and have done very well against leftys on the season. They slipped a bit because of that debacle against Noah Lowry earlier in the week, but their .289 average against lefty-handed pitching is good for fifth in the Major Leagues, and their .482 slugging percentage is fourth-best.
Source
Date
Fri 06/30/06, 8:20 am EST
