Scattered Thoughts on NBA Draft and Trade Rumors
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by user Wade Garrett
1) ESPN just announced that Portland has announced that Greg Oden is going to be the #1 overall pick. If it was up to me, I would have selected Kevin Durant. I don't know what else to say. Everybody raves about Oden's defense and rebounding, but Durant actually outrebounded him by a considerable margin last year. I realize that Oden played hurt the entire year, but Durant is almost 6'10", with disproportionately long arms, and he has a nose for the ball. Oden may well outrebound him as a professional, but I predict that it will be by one or two rebounds a game, no more. It wouldn't surprise me whatsoever if Durant averaged 20 points and 9 rebounds a game as a rookie. He moves around the court in that effortless, springy, Tracy McGrady-type way, and his jump shot ranks with the very most elite NBA shooters, like Ray Allen and Dirk Nowitzki. My only complaint about watching Durant play is that sometimes he makes the game look too easy.
2) Bill Simmons won't shut up about the personality differences between Oden and Durant. According to Simmons, Durant is obsessed with winning basketball games, and has very few interests outside of the game. Oden, on the other hand, has many interests outside of basketball, speaks openly about how as a kid he dreamed about being a dentist when he grew up, instead of a basketball player, and how he only plays basketball because, at his height, it would be stupid not to. According to Simmons, Durant has a winner's killer instinct, which Oden lacks. In response, I would only point to the fact that Greg Oden last lost exactly 17 basketball games since he started high school. That includes four seasons of high school ball, one season at the highest level of college basketball, and countless all-star games, basketball camps, and AAU Tournaments. Oden won three state championships in high school, in Indiana, the home of some of the best basketball high school basketball programs in the country. As a college freshman, he led a team to the national championship game despite playing on an injured wrist all season. Simmons shouldn't be so quick to knock Oden's competitiveness.
3) Oden was the author of my two favorite plays of the entire college basketball season: the shot he blocked against Acie Law (it must have been at least two and a half feet above the rim when he touched it) and the play in the NCAA Championship game when he basically swallowed Corey Brewer whole. Brewer drove in for a dunk, Oden went up to block the shot, kept on rising well after I expected him to stop, got both hands on the ball and just ripped it out of his hands. Brewer is 6'9" and an exceptional athlete in his own right; Oden's block made me jump off the couch with excitement. I look forward to seeing Oden and Durant go at each other for the next ten years.
4) The proposed 3-team trade between Minnesota, Phoenix and Atlanta is very interesting to me. Under the tersm of the deal, Minnesota would send Kevin Garnett to Phoenix, Phoenix would send Amare Stoudemire to Atlanta, and Atlanta would send the #3 overall pick, the #11 overall pick, Zaza Pachulia and Anthony Johnson to Minnesota. I think that this is as close to a win-win-win as you're ever going to see. Atlanta gets an all-NBA 1st team player, fills one of its two desperate needs, which it could not have filled in the draft. It would still need to find a point guard, but with both Mo Williams and Chauncey Billups on the free agent market, Atlanta could get competitive in a hurry. They already have an all-star shooting guard in Joe Johnson, and they have three promising young forwards in Josh Smith, Marvin Williams and Shelden Williams.
For Phoenix, Kevin Garnett is an immediate (though not a future) upgrade over Amare Stodamire; he gives Phoenix a very legitimate change to win a championship while its nucleus of Steve Nash, Raja Bell and Shawn Marion are all in their primes. Most importantly, it gives Phoenix a player who can potentially contain San Antonio's Tim Duncan, Dallas' Dirk Nowitzki and Utah's Carlos Boozer, three players who would otherwise pose the biggest obstacles to Phoenix's winning a title.
Finally, Minnesota would end up with three of the top 11 draft picks, and essentially a blank slate with which to work. They could take the best available player with all three of their picks. Just thinking aloud here, but what if they took Al Horford with the #3, Jeff Green or Corey Brewer with the #7 and either Acie Law or Nick Young at #11 (depending on whether they consider Randy Foye to be a point guard or a shooting guard). Zaza Pachulia is a serviceable (though admittedly far from elite) center; last year he ended up with a player efficiency ratio of 16.8, which means he is a solidly above-average starter. By way of comparison, Fabricio Oberto finished at 11.9, Erick Dampier at 14.9, Mehmet Okur at 18.1. By the end of the season, they could theoretically start a lineup of Pachulia, Horford, Green/Brewer, Foye, and Law/Young, with Craig Smith and Ricky Davis as part of the rotation. That's pretty good value for Kevin Garnett, on top of millions of dollars of cap relief. The Timberwolves might not become a playoff team right away, but they would actually become a somewhat deep team with seven quality players, instead of a team of a single superstar and a collection of failed would-be sidekicks.
5) Finally, Charlotte has made clear that it plans to trade the #8 overall pick. Some rumors have it going to Phoenix for either Boris Diaw or Kurt Thomas. I still think that a good trade could be made with San Antonio, bringing the rights to Argentinian power forward Luis Scola and perhaps one of their aging veterans like Michael Finley or Robert Horry, or to Seattle in a sign-and-trade for Rashard Lewis, which would be particularly appealing if Durant falls to the Sonics, thus making Lewis expendable. The Bobcats already have a good core of young players; what they need is veteran leadership. Since they have more salary cap space than anybody else, they could trade the pick for a veteran, pick up a brand-name free agent, and suddenly be considered a legitimate NBA franchise. I don't know which trade I would like to see more; if Phoenix makes the trade, they would probably use it on Noah to lend Garnett a defensive helping hand. San Antonio probably use the pick on a young small forward. Seattle would probably use it on Joakim Noah, as he would compliment Durant better than any other player who might still be on the board when the eighth pick rolls around. Either way, a veteran or two would do Charlotte more good than another talented young wing player.
6) Rumors have Grant Hill going to San Antonio as a free agent. Their "swingman by committee of players who were sweet in 2001" theme continues, as they would not have Michael Finley, Brent Barry and Grant Hill sharing minutes with Manu Ginobili and Bruce Bowen. I realize that Hill is getting up there in age, and has certainly had more than his fair share of injury problems, but wouldn't he be a great fit for a team with a philosophy like the Spurs? He could give Bowen a break as an on-the-ball wing defender, and he would give them a different look on offense; a point forward to compensate for Tony Parker's relatively low assist ratio. If you were Grant Hill, wouldn't you rather end up in San Antonio than anywhere else?
