San Diego Padres: You Better Hope They Don't Make The Playoffs...
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by user Timothy Moreland(Bball3345)
...Unless they are your favorite team. The 2006 Padres are built for success in the postseason. Let's take a look at what I mean.
Here is the starting rotation for the Padres.
| Player | K/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|
| Jake Peavy | 9.67 | 4.50 |
| Chris Young | 8.16 | 2.97 |
| Chan Ho Park | 6.70 | 4.31 |
| Clay Hensley | 4.34 | 4.14 |
| Mike Thompson | 3.91 | 4.30 |
| Woody Williams | 5.66 | 3.27 |
Jake Peavy has struggled with tendonitis this year, but the team says his health is improving. Still, Peavy has struck out more batters than innings pitched. If he can get healthy by October, Peavy and Chris Young can be a dominant 1-2 punch, who rarely allow batters to put the ball in play. They can then decide between Chan Ho Park and Woody Williams as their other starters in the playoffs. Park has a stronger K rate, while Williams can provide solid innings as well. Here is the bullpen for the Padres:
Player K/9 ERA Trevor Hoffman 7.45 1.24 Alan Embree 10.21 3.95 Scott Linebrink 8.83 2.52 Scott Cassidy 9.75 2.25 Brian Sweeney 3.11 2.63 Jon Adkins 5.91 4.64
With Hoffman, Embree, Linebrink, and Cassidy, the Padres have four relievers who mow down hitters. Hoffman has been untouchable this year and having a dominant closer helps in the close games of the postseason. With all of the great offenses sure to enter the playoffs(New York Mets, Boston Red Sox, Chicago White Sox, St. Louis Cardinals), allowing the batters the fewest opportunities to put the ball in play is priceless. From the starting rotation to the bullpen, San Diego strikes out batters as frequently as any other playoff bound team, except maybe the Mets.
Now, obviously, sometimes the batters are able to make contact with the ball. Then, the defense better be able to field the ball well. Here is how the Padres' defense looks:
Pos Player Rate C Mike Piazza 77 1B Adrian Gonzalez 109 2B Josh Barfield 99 3B Vinny Castilla 100 SS Khalil Greene 93 LF Dave Roberts 111 CF Mike Cameron 116 RF Brian Giles 98
Rate is a Baseball Prospectus stat that stands for runs above average per 100 games with 100 being average. So, Cameron's 116 would mean he saves the team 16 runs every 100 games, while Piazza costs the team 23 runs with defense every 100 games. The Padres are above average at 1B, 3B, LF, and CF. They are more-or-less average at 2B, 3B, and RF. SS and especially C are problems on defense. Luckily, they have the answer to catcher on the big league roster, Josh Bard. Defensively, he is miles ahead of Piazza and has actually been more productive with the bat this year. Rob Bowen can sufficiently back up Bard, making Piazza expendable. At 3B, Castilla has been Terrible on offense, and his defense is not good enough to warrant sticking him out there every day. The Padres should try to package Piazza and Castilla, who both probably have decent trade value based on their "experience", for a 3Bman who can hit. Greene has been average with the bat and is not a major hole on the team. If the Padres remove Piazza and Castilla from the everyday lineup and replace them with Bard and another thirdbaseman, they will have an offense without a major hole and a stellar defense.
The Padres have four starters with high K rates who can match up with any team's offense in the postseason. Their bullpen rivals the Mets for the best in the game, which gives them an advantage in the close playoff games. On defense, the Padres rarely make costly mistakes. If San Diego can fill their holes at catcher and third base, while improving their mediocore defense, they have a shot to go deep in the playoffs. Now, they just have to hold off the rest of the division.
Date
Thu 06/29/06, 8:03 am EST
