SEC East Preview
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by Kwinger 00
SEC EAST
1. Tennessee
2. Georgia
3. South Carolina (tie)
3. Florida (tie)
5. Kentucky (tie)
5. Vanderbilt (tie)
1. Tennessee
Magazine Predictions - As high as first (3 votes), as low as third (5.5 votes), with an average of second.
They lose 2nd Team All-American LT Arron Sears and 3rd Team All-American WR Robert Meachem on offense. They also lose 2nd Team All-SEC CB Jonathan Wade on defense and 1st Team All-SEC K James Wilhoit.
They return 2nd Team All-SEC FS Jonathan Hefney (Sr) on defense and 1st Team All-SEC P Britton Colquitt (Jr) on special teams.
One of their most important returnees is QB Erik Ainge (Sr). After a strong start to his career, he struggled as a sophomore. Former Mississippi head coach David Cutcliffe came back to Tennessee (Offenseive coordinator from 1993-98) and turned Ainge around last year. His stats were impressive (233-348, 2989 yards, 19 TD, 9 INT), but he had Meachem to throw to. This year, he loses his top three receivers from last year, but brings in 3 solid true freshman (Gerald Jones, Ahmad Paige, Kenny O'Neal) who will help fill the void. Also, TE Chris Brown (Sr), who has 25 career starts and had 31 receptions last year, is back. They also return 3 starters on the offensive line from last year, as well as two guys who have experience. One of their team strengths will be at running back, where their top three rushers are back, led by sophomore LaMarcus Coker. However, Coker has been suspendended indefinitely but may return. Until then, junior Arian Foster and sophomore Montario Hardesty will handle the job.
They will be solid on defense, led by their front 7. Both defensive ends and two upper classmen at tackles will start. Three of the four starters at linebacker will also be back. In the secondary, Jonathan Hefney is back, but will be accompanied by 3 new starters. Watch out for CB Eric Berry, a true freshman and the top CB recruit in the nation.
They will have to replace their kicker, but punter Britton Colquitt (Jr) will be back and contend for All-American honors. He may also do some kicking to help fill that spot. They return all of their returners also.
Schedule - Tennessee has 6 games they should win, and they don't have a sure loss on the schedule. Their is 6 toss up games, 5 of which are conference games.
Sure Wins: 6
Sure Losses: 0
Toss-up Games: 6 (at Cal, at Florida, Georgia, at Alabama, South Carolina, Arkansas)
Forecast - Partly Sunny. There are plenty of "ifs" on this schedule, and the SEC East is loaded with talent. A 6-2 conference record in this division could very well win it this year, much like it did in 2005 when Georgia won the East with a 6-2 record and went on to defeat LSU in the SEC championship game. If Tennessee can take care of business at home, they will win the East with a 6-2 record.
2. Georgia
Magazine Predictions - As high as first (3 votes), as low as fourth (two votes), with an average of third.
They lose 1st Team All-SEC TE Martrez Milner and 2nd Team All-SEC C Nick Jones on offense.
Defensively, they lose 3rd Team All-American DE Quentin Moses, 1st Team All-SEC DB Tra Battle, 2nd Team All-SEC DL Charles Johnson, and 2nd Team All-SEC LB Tony Taylor.
They return QB Matthew Stafford (So) who struggled as a true freshman last year but was the second rated QB out of high school. He returns his top 4 wide receivers, but loses his #1 target in TE Martrez Milner. WR Mohamed Massaquoi (Jr) should be the go-to receiver in his 3rd year. The running back group should be one of the strengths, maybe one of the top backfields in the nation. Kregg Lumpkin (Sr), Knowshon Moreno (Fr), and Thomas Brown (Sr) are all back. It seems that Lumpkin and Brown have been in college since the Clinton administration. The line may take a few lumps, as they return just 2 starters. Keep and eye on true freshman Trinton Sturdivant (6'5" 286). He may get the start at left tackle.
Defensively, the defensive backs would've been the backbone of the group. Unfortunately, CB Paul Oliver was declared academically ineligible and was drafted in the NFL supplemental draft by the Chargers. He would've been a contender for All-American honors. Instead, they replace two out of the four and the defense isn't as solid anymore. The front seven only returns 1 starter, DT Jeff Owens (Jr).
On special teams they return 1st Team All-SEC PR Mikey Henderson and K Brandon Coutu (Sr) who should be in the running for the Lou Groza Award this year. Drew Butler, a true freshman, comes in looking to take over as the punter. Drew's father is former Chicago Bear kicker, Kevin Butler, and is the only kicker in the College Football Hall of Fame.
Schedule - Georgia should be able to win 6 games pretty handily. They should also be able to beat Auburn at home and South Carolina at home also. That leaves road games against Alabama, Tennessee, and non-conference opponent Georgia Tech in the season finale. Those three games could go either way. They also have Florida in Jacksonville on October 27.
Sure Wins: 8
Sure Losses: 0
Toss-up Games: 4 (at Alabama, at Tennessee, Florida (in Jacksonville), at Georgia Tech)
Forecast - Mostly sunny. Georgia should be back to contend for the SEC East title this year after a one year hiatus. The key game will be at Tennessee on October 6 which could decide the division.
3. South Carolina
Magazine Predictions - As high as a tie for first (1 vote, Phil Steele) and as low as fourth (9 votes) with an average of fourth.
They lose 2nd Team All-SEC TE Andy Boyd and 2nd Team All-SEC WR Sydney Rice on offense, and 2nd Team All-SEC CB Fred Bennett on defense.
They do return 2nd Team All-SEC K Ryan Succop, who also handles the punting.
Steve Spurrier enters his 3rd season at South Carolina. New coaches tend to start turning the program around starting in their 3rd season, which is good news for South Carolina and bad news for the rest of the SEC. Unfortunately for the Gamecocks, the SEC East is loaded this year. They do return 10 of their 11 starters on defense from last year, including MLB Jasper Brinkley (Sr) who will contend for All-American honors this year. Other notable returners on defense include Jasper's brother, Casper (Sr), who moves to OLB from DE where he started 13 games last year, and DE Eric Norwood (So) who had 30 tackles as a true freshman. Keep an eye on DE Clifton Geathers, a 6-7, 270 pound super-recruit of Georgia in '06 but failed to qualify, attended Hargrave Military Academy last season, then chose South Carolina. He's a true freshman this year. The Gamecocks will have a top notch defensive line and one of the top linebacking corps in the nation.
Offensively, South Carolina returns Blake Mitchell (Sr) at quarterback, but look out for Spurrier's recruit Chris Smelley (rFr) to challenge Mitchell for the top spot. Spurrier will probably play musical quarterbacks like his days in Florida. Also, Stephen Garcia is a true freshman and Spurrier's top quarterback recruit at South Carolina (#10 out of high school). Te top two running backs return, but they'll miss top receiver Sidney Rice.
Schedule - The Gamecocks have 5 games they should win without much trouble. I don't see them beating Georgia and LSU on the road early in the season, mainly because of their lack of explosiveness on offense. Of the 5 toss-up games, the Kentucky game is at home, so they should win that one. They'll have trouble at Arkansas, but can possibly beat Tennessee on the road (Spurrier's '05 squad pulled the upset with a 16-15 victory in Knoxville last time). I can see South Carolina, playing at home, avenging last year's devastating loss to Florida when they had 2 field goals blocked and an extra point blocked and ended up losing by one, 16-17. I have them finishing with the same record as Florida, but winning the tie-breaker because of their head-to-head win.
Sure Wins: 5
Sure Losses: 2
Toss-up Games: 5 (Kentucky, at Tennessee, at Arkansas, Florida, Clemson)
Forecast - Partly sunny. Spurrier's team will go as his offense goes, which is scary for the rest of the nation as Spurrier is one of the top offensive minds in the business. He's got the defense already, so don't be surprised by big things from the Gamecocks.
3. Florida
Magazine Predictions - As high as first (5 votes) and as low as a tie for third (1 votes) with an average of first.
The losses are immense for the defending National Champions. Gone are 1st Team All-American S Reggie Nelson, 2nd Team All-American CB Ryan Smith, 3rd Team All-American LB Brandon Siler, 1st Team All-SEC DL Ray McDonald, and 1st Team All-SEC LB Earl Everett on defense.
1st Team All-SEC C Steve Rissler, 1st Team All-SEC WR Dallas Baker, and 2nd Team All-SEC QB and Florida's all-time leading passer Chris Leak are also gone.
They return 2nd Team All-SEC OL Drew Miller (Sr), 2nd Team All-SEC OL Phil Trautwein (Sr), and 2nd Team All-SEC DE Derrick Harvey (Jr).
So, Florida loses their #1 receiver, their #1 quarterback, their #1 running back (DeShawn Wynn), their #1 offensive lineman, all 3 linebackers, 2 All-Americans in the defensive secondary, and their top defensive lineman.
With all that being said, they return fullback, er, quarterback Tim Tebow (So), Andre Caldwell (Sr) and dangerous Percy Harvin (So) at the receivers, and 4 starters from the offensive line. However, the man who was supposed to come in and replace Rissler was RG Ronnie Wilson (So); Wilson has been suspended for the '07 season. The receiving corps and the offensive line should be two of the best units at their respective positions in college football.
Defense is a different story. They return only two starters. Two starters. Two. One of them, DE Derrick Harvey (Jr) was the defensive MVP of the BCS Championship game against Ohio St. The other is SS Tony Joiner (Sr).
Coach Urban Meyer does an excellent job recruiting, but it'll be hard to replace that many guys.
Schedule - Florida always has one of the top schedules in the nation year after year. This year is no different. Home games include 3 cupcakes, Tennessee, Vanderbilt, Auburn, and Florida St. They should be able to beat Auburn and Vanderbilt; the other two will be tough. Away from home they have Mississippi, LSU, Kentucky, Georgia (in Jacksonville), and South Carolina. They'll be lucky to escape with 3 wins, but let's say they do. That'll put them anywhere between 4-4 and 6-2 in the conference. I'm leaning toward 4-4 with the lack of experience being the key.
Sure Wins: 7
Sure Losses: 0
Toss-up Games: 5 (Tennessee, at LSU, Georgia (in Jacksonville), at South Carolina, Florida St.)
Forecast - Partly sunny. They have talent, no question. You can't win football games on talent alone. If that were the case, USC wouldn't lose a game for the next 10 years. Urban Meyer is a heck of a coach, and I wouldn't be surprised if they challenge for the East title. If they do, he's the coach of the year, hands down. It'll be tough though.
5. Kentucky
Magazine Predictions - As high as fourth (1 vote, Surefire Scouting) and as low as sixth (1 vote, Phil Steele), with an average of fifth.
They lose 2nd Team All-SEC RT Michaeal Aitcheson.
They return 1st Team All-SEC TE Jacob Tamme (Sr), 2nd Team All-SEC WR Keenan Burton (Sr), and 2nd Team All-SEC QB Andre' Woodson (Sr) on offense. On defense, they return the leading returning tackler in the SEC in 1st Team All-SEC OLB Wesley Woodyard (Sr).
They also return RB Rafael Little (Sr) who was 1st Team All-SEC in 2005 but was injured for 4 games last year. They ended last year at 8-5 after defeating Clemson in the Music City Bowl 28-20. They have a chance to duplicate that record, especially with Woodson (2006: 264-419, 3515 yards, 31 TD, 7 INT), Little, Burton, and Tamme back. Burton is also one of the best kick returners in the nation and contributes to one of the top special teams units in the nation. Kicker Lones Seiber (So) and punter Tim Masthay (Jr) return as well as top punt returner Rafael Little. They'll have to win some shootouts because their defense isn't that good, but don't count out the Wildcats.
Schedule - Kentucky only has 3 sure wins on their schedule, but can (and should) beat Mississippi State at home and Vanderbilt on the road. That leaves tough conference games at Arkansas, at South Carolina, and at Georgia, as well as home games against LSU, Florida, and Tennessee. The schedule is a tough break for Kentucky since most of their "winnable" games are on the road. Although they might be better than last year, their record may be worse, possibly only 2-6 or 3-5 in the conference and 5-7 or 6-6 overall.
Sure Wins: 3
Sure Losses: 6
Toss-up Games: 3 (at South Carolina, Mississippi St, at Vanderbilt)
Forecast - Partly cloudy. The offense should be fun to watch this year, but the schedule will be tough for them to overcome.
5. Vanderbilt
Magazine Predictions - 11 out of the 12 magazines has Vanderbilt finishing sixth in the East.
They return 18 starters and are one of the most experienced teams in the league.
They return 2nd Team All-SEC WR Earl Bennett (Jr) who has 161 catches in two years and 2nd Team All-SEC LT Chris Williams on offense, 2nd Team All-SEC MLB Jonathan Goff on defense.
Schedule - Their only sure wins are against Richmond and Eastern Michigan. They have a tough road schedule as they have to travel to Auburn, South Carolina, Florida, and Tennessee. The rest of their eight games are at home. If they can find a way to upset one or two of those teams and take care of Mississippi, then their game against Kentucky could determine who stays out of the SEC East cellar. They'll have a shot at being bowl elgible.
Sure Wins: 2
Sure Losses: 6
Toss-up Games: 4 (Mississippi, Miami(OH), Kentucky, and Wake Forest)
Forecast - Partly cloudy. If there was a year that Vanderbilt returned to a bowl for the first time since 1982, this could be it. They return pretty much everyone and six or seven wins is definitely a possibility.
